“…Phenology, or the timing of life history events, is critical to fitness and population persistence (Parmesan and Yohe, 2003; Cleland et al, 2007). While some species and populations exhibit little phenological plasticity (i.e., shift their phenology little in response to environmental variation), other species and populations respond strongly to temperature and precipitation (Visser and Both, 2005; Matthews and Mazer, 2016; Thackeray et al, 2016; Cremonense et al, 2017) and other environmental variables such as nutrient availability or competition (Smith et al, 2012; Xia and Wan, 2013; Du et al, 2019; Wang and Tang, 2019). Phenological plasticity may promote population growth (or limit population declines) in the face of climate change and has been associated with invasiveness and range size (Crawley et al, 1996; DeFalco et al, 2007; Willis et al, 2008, 2010; Cleland et al, 2012; Pearson et al, 2012; Wolkovich et al, 2013; Lustenhouwer et al, 2018; Zettlemoyer et al, 2019b; Reeb et al, 2020), suggesting that species that are less phenologically plastic may be more at risk of population declines and eventual extirpation (Møller et al, 2008; Willis et al, 2008; Forrest and Miller‐Rushing, 2010; Miller‐Rushing et al, 2010).…”