Responses of crop yield and water use efficiency to climate change in the North China Plain

Guo, R.T.; Lin, Zhaohui; Mo, Xingguo; Chunlin, Yang

doi:10.1016/j.agwat.2009.07.006

Cited by 188 publications

(106 citation statements)

References 39 publications

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“…The NCP has experienced a significant decrease in sunshine hours and radiation since 1961 and increasing air temperature since the early 1980s (Ding et al 2006;Li et al 2014;Piao et al 2010). Since the 1950s, the precipitation in the region has shown a decreasing trend which had a negative effect on agriculture water resources (Mo et al 2009;Guo et al 2010).…”

Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The agricultural soil is mainly calcareous and alluvial soil in most NCP regions, but partly yellow and brown soil (Guo et al 2010). Other data such as latitude, longitude, and altitude were incorporated into the model.…”

Section: Data Collectionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For the future climate, it is found that winter wheat yield will increase by 19 % for A2 and 13 % for B1 scenarios, and summer maize yield will decline by 15 % for A2 and 12 % for B1 scenario, respectively. Based on the CERES-Wheat and Maize models, Guo et al (2010) found that under the same scenarios, wheat yield ascended due to climatic warming, but the maize yield descended. And high temperature also has positive effect on water use efficiencies.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Modeling water requirements of major crops and their responses to climate change in the North China Plain

2015

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The North China Plain (NCP) is one of the most important food production bases in China. However, its agriculture water resources are threatened by climate change. In this paper, the CROPWAT model is used to evaluate crop water requirement (CWR), crop green water requirement (CGWR), and crop blue water requirement (CBWR) for main crops in NCP (winter wheat, summer maize, cotton, millet, and soybean) with a spatial resolution of 5 arc-minute from 1961 to 2010. Their responses to future climate changes are investigated. The results show that the mean annual total CWR of the main crops during growing periods amounted to 114.68 km 3 a -1 in the past 50 years. More than 72 % of CWR to support NCP crop production is green water. The spatial distributions of CWR, CGWR, and CBWR are closely related to the planting areas and irrigation availability. Summer maize, millet, and soybean are high CGWR crops with proportions of above 84 %, while the lowest CGWR proportion is in winter wheat, 58.89 %. For climate change impacts in future, holding the crop planting system and irrigation conditions unchanged, it is projected that the total CWR in 2030s will require approximately 8.75-11.25 km 3 a -1 additional water. Results show that the CWR increase in 2030s is mainly due to the increase in temperature. Under the projected temperature in 2030s and the current rainfall scenario, total CWR, CGWR, and CBWR increments were 8.58, 1.76, and 6.82 km 3 a -1 , respectively. Nearly 80 % of the CWR increment is from the increase in CBWR. Therefore, agricultural water shortage crisis will further aggravate under future climate change scenarios in NCP, and effective water-saving measures must be taken to mitigate the negative effects of climate change.

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Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Data Collectionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Modeling water requirements of major crops and their responses to climate change in the North China Plain

2015

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“…Four kinds of scenarios were simulated: (i) current irrigation practice (scenarios 1a-3a), (ii) ground water neutral, (iii) zero irrigation, (iv) selected cropping systems in one climate change scenario. For the most promising cropping systems we checked whether our results would be affected by climate changes predicted for the 2060s, assuming a CO 2 concentration of 632 ppm and an increase of maximum and minimum temperature with 3.3 • C and 3.8 • C respectively (Guo et al, 2010). All grain yields are expressed in tons of dry matter per hectare.…”

Section: Apsim Simulationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…where GWT is the change in groundwater table depth (m/year); D is drainage (mm/year), I is irrigation (mm/year), L (mm/year) is net lateral (external) recharge, 0.001 is for conversion from mm to m and is the specific yield (amount of pore space in the underground that can be filled with water) which we set to 0.15 based on (Guo et al, 2010).…”

Section: Summary Statisticsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Towards groundwater neutral cropping systems in the Alluvial Fans of the North China Plain

Oort

Wang

Vos

et al. 2016

Agricultural Water Management

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a b s t r a c tGroundwater levels in the North China Plain (NCP), the bread basket of China, have dropped more than one meter per year over the last 40 years, putting at risk the long term productivity of this region. Groundwater decline is most severe in the Alluvial Fans where our study site is located. Avoiding a foreseeable systems collapse requires region-wide changes in crop systems management, underpinned by sound environmental policies. Here, we explore the potential of crop system adaptation to remedy the excessive water use and quantify the likely yield penalties associated with more sustainable water use practices. Using simulations with the APSIM cropping systems model we explore production opportunities in an area within the NCP with intensive cropping and no access to irrigation from rivers. We estimate the attainable production levels for wheat and maize if agriculture were made groundwater neutral, through changes in crop sequence, irrigation practices and water conservation technologies (e.g. mulching with plastic film). Total grain production would drop by 44% compared to current practice if agriculture were made groundwater neutral. Water conservation by plastic film could limit this reduction to 21-33% but possible environmental impacts of plastic film need attention. This analysis facilitates a much needed debate on alternative agronomic practices and incentives through a quantitative comparison of adaptation options. Our biophysical analysis needs to be complemented with socio-economic considerations and discussions with all stakeholders. Similar analyses in other parts of the NCP are possible but require more accurate modelling of landscape hydrology and (towards the coast) risk of salt water intrusion.

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Daily underlying water use efficiency for AmeriFlux sites

Zhou

Huang

et al. 2015

J. Geophys. Res. Biogeosci.

110

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Water use efficiency (WUE) is a crucial parameter to describe the interrelationship between gross primary production (GPP) and evapotranspiration (ET). Incorporating the nonlinear effect of vapor pressure deficit (VPD), underlying WUE (uWUE = GPP · VPD 0.5 /ET) is better than inherent WUE (IWUE = GPP · VPD/ET) at the half-hourly time scale. However, appropriateness of uWUE has not yet been evaluated at the daily time scale. To determine whether uWUE is better than IWUE, daily data for seven vegetation types from 34 AmeriFlux sites were used to validate uWUE at the daily time scale. First, daily mean VPD was shown to be a good substitute for the effective VPD that was required to preserve daily GPP totals. Second, an optimal exponent, k*, corresponding to the best linear relationship between GPP · VPD k* and ET, was about 0.55 both at half-hourly and daily time scales. Third, correlation coefficient between GPP · VPD k and ET showed that uWUE (k = 0.5 and r = 0.85) was a better approximation of the optimal WUE (k = k* and r = 0.86) than IWUE (k = 1 and r = 0.81) at the daily scale. Finally, when yearly uWUE was used to predict daily GPP from daily ET and mean VPD, uWUE worked considerably better than IWUE. Comparing observed and predicted daily GPP, the average correlation coefficient and Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency were 0.81 and 0.59, respectively, using yearly uWUE, and only 0.59 and À0.83 using yearly IWUE. As a nearly optimal WUE, uWUE consistently outperformed IWUE and could be used to evaluate the effects of global warming and elevated atmosphere CO 2 on carbon assimilation and evapotranspiration.

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Responses of crop yield and water use efficiency to climate change in the North China Plain

Cited by 188 publications

References 39 publications

Modeling water requirements of major crops and their responses to climate change in the North China Plain

Modeling water requirements of major crops and their responses to climate change in the North China Plain

Towards groundwater neutral cropping systems in the Alluvial Fans of the North China Plain

Daily underlying water use efficiency for AmeriFlux sites

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