Response of Winter Wheat Production to Climate Change in Ziway Lake Basin

Abstract

The crop production and limited freshwater resources in the Central Rift Valley (CRV) Lake Basin of Ethiopia have been facing pressure from warmer and drier climates. Thus, irrigation with the goal of increasing water use efficiency and the productivity of rainfed agriculture is vital to address climate effects, water scarcity, and food security. This study is aimed at assessing the sustainability of winter wheat production under climate change, and irrigation as an adaptation measure to improve yield, crop water productivity (CWP), and irrigation water productivity (IWP) in the CRV of Ethiopia. AquaCrop is applied to evaluate the effects of climate change and simulate irrigation as an adaptation measure. The analysis covers the baseline (1981–2020) and future (2026–2095) periods with each period categorized into three rainfall years (wet, normal, and dry). The future period is described using two representatives’ concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and PCP8.5) scenarios. The results under rainfed and future climate conditions show that the winter wheat yield and CWP are projected to be lowered as compared to the baseline period. Most importantly, a significant reduction in wheat yield and CWP is noticed during the dry years (−60% and −80%) compared to the wet years (−30% and −51%) and normal years (−18% and −30%), respectively. As compared to rainfed agriculture, irrigation significantly reduces the risk of wheat yield decline and improves the CWP. Irrigation is also able to improve the CWP of rainfed wheat production ranging from 0.98–1.4 kg/m3 to 1.48–1.56 kg/m3. A projected CWP improvement of 1.1–1.32 kg/m3 under irrigation is possible from 0.87–1.1 kg/m3 under rainfed conditions. The study concludes that optimizing irrigation as a climate-change-adapting strategy in the CRV has a more pronounced positive impact to the rainfed production system, especially for the dry and normal years.

Scoping Review (SR) via Text Data Mining on Water Scarcity and Climate Change

“…Moreover, this study contributes this theory by applying research methodology which has not been widely used but offers text analysis in a more effective and efficient way than manual analysis [33]. In line with other research [64], it is possible to highlight that climate change is likely to negatively affect either crop production or water availability, pushing for further investigation to improve irrigation strategies. Therefore, a scientific approach is recommended to decrease ecology, sustainability, and environment impacts as also stated by Zy Harifidy et al [65].…”

Water Use Strategies and Shoot and Root Traits of High-Yielding Winter Wheat Cultivars under Different Water Supply Conditions

“…Thus, ET = P + I + SWD was used in this experiment. Water productivity (WP, kg/m 3 ) was defined as the grain yield production per unit of water consumption, and was calculated as follows [44]:…”

Potential Effects of Climate Change on Agricultural Water Resources in Riyadh Region, Saudi Arabia

“…The impact of increasing temperatures on crops may be very manifest [18]. The results indicated that a rise in temperature of +1 degree during the growing season may result in a 3-10% reduction in wheat productivity [18]. According to the findings of the [19] study, predicted climate change will, in the best-case scenario, result in an increase in CWR over the following 30 years.…”

“…The productivity of agriculture and the availability of food will be significantly impacted by these climate changes [3]. The impact of increasing temperatures on crops may be very manifest [18]. The results indicated that a rise in temperature of +1 degree during the growing season may result in a 3-10% reduction in wheat productivity [18].…”