Response of snowpack to +2°C global warming in Hokkaido, Japan

Abstract

The response of snowpack to a +2°C global warming relative to the present climate was estimated in Hokkaido, Japan, using a physical snowpack model driven by dynamically downscaled (DDS) data, after model evaluation. The evaluation revealed that the snowpack model successfully reproduced the height of snow cover (HS), snow water equivalent (SWE) and snow-covered days (SCDs), but had a moderate bias in the thickness ratios of melt form (MF) and hoar category (HC). The DDS-forced simulation predicted that the seasonal-maximum HS and SWE would decrease by 30–40% in the southwestern and eastern parts of Hokkaido due to a large decrease in snowfall during the accumulation period, and that the HS and SWE in the north would decrease, albeit not significantly due to uncertain atmospheric forcing. The number of SCDs in Hokkaido was predicted to decline by ~30 d. Additionally, ~50% of snowpack thickness during a season would be MF in most areas, whereas HC would be <50% all over Hokkaido.

Risk Assessment and Possible Adaptation of Potato Production in Hokkaido to Climate Change Using a Large Number Ensemble Climate Dataset d4PDF

“…Whereas the standard planting date was here set on May 1, the planting date was shifted to April 20, April 10, and April 1 for adaptation. This change of planting date is reasonable because the snow-covered days in Hokkaido is reduced by about 30 days under plus 2-K climate relative to the 1990s(Katsuyama et al 2019). However, the number of hot days from flowering to harvesting does not change much, if the planting date was shifted one month earlier in the 2K or 4K runs (Figs.7a,b; Histograms for April 20 and April 10 are not shown.).…”

Spatial snowpack properties in a snow-avalanche release area: An extreme dry-slab avalanche case on Mt. Nodanishoji, Japan, in 2021

“…where 𝑓 𝑠 = −7.5𝑇 + 93 and 𝑓 𝑟 = 46√7.2 − 𝑇 (Matsuo and Sasyo, 1981). The soil layers of the model were set to contain the 10 top layers of 10-cm thickness with mineral and organic soils evenly mixed, five middle layers of 20-cm thickness with mineral and organic soils evenly mixed, and a bottom layer of 8-m thickness with 100% mineral soil (Farouki, 1981;Katsuyama et al, 2020). The initial and bottom soil temperatures were given by the annual climatology of the air temperature plus 2.3°C (Hirota et al, 2002).…”

“…The initial and bottom soil temperatures were given by the annual climatology of the air temperature plus 2.3°C (Hirota et al, 2002). The above model configurations for the SNOWPACK model are suitable for a wide range of Japanese snowpacks (Katsuyama et al, 2020).…”

Projected changes in field workability of agricultural machinery operations for upland crop production in +4 K Hokkaido, Japan

“…The most important point to be noted is a possible change in the agricultural calendar in response to climate change. For example, warmer winter may move up the snowmelt season and allow earlier spring seeding and planting in some crops (Katsuyama et al, 2020). Early seeding and planting can be an effective adaptive measure to global warming because it helps 1) decelerating the growth rate and guaranteeing the growth period under warmer conditions, and/or 2) avoiding growth retardation in hot summer caused by suppression of photosynthesis.…”