Risk Assessment and Possible Adaptation of Potato Production in Hokkaido to Climate Change Using a Large Number Ensemble Climate Dataset d4PDF

Sugawara, Kuniyasu; Inatsu, Masaru; Shimoda, Süsumu; Murakami, Keach; Hirota, Tomoyoshi

doi:10.2151/sola.2021-004

Cited by 5 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 25 publications

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“…Early seeding and planting can be an effective adaptive measure to global warming because it helps 1) decelerating the growth rate and guaranteeing the growth period under warmer conditions, and/or 2) avoiding growth retardation in hot summer caused by suppression of photosynthesis. Although Sugawara et al (2021) analyzed a projected reduction in potato yield under future climate and reported that 1-month-earlier planting did not mitigate the yield reduction in Hokkaido, it can still be a plausible adaptive approach. As well as the early planting in spring, delayed seeding for overwintering plants (e.g., winter wheat) may be effective (Dobor et al, 2016).…”

Section: Limitations Of the Present Studymentioning

confidence: 99%

Projected changes in field workability of agricultural machinery operations for upland crop production in +4 K Hokkaido, Japan

Murakami

Inoue

Nemoto

et al. 2022

Preprint

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The use of agricultural machines for field operations is often restricted by soil status determined by meteorological conditions several days before the operation. While a projected increase in air temperature caused by climate change may promote evapotranspiration and have positive impacts on the use of agricultural machines, intensified rainfall may have negative effects at the same time. This study aimed to provide probabilistic estimates of climate change impacts the meteorological constraints on field workability of agricultural machines in Hokkaido, Japan. Analyses based on historical meteorological data and machinery operation logs recorded at two agricultural research stations revealed that operations concentrated on days with smaller antecedent precipitation index (API). A simple derivative of API that reflects a practically maximum API value to carry out a certain field operation, termed threshold API, was proposed to evaluate the meteorological constraints on field operations. Because threshold API values for operations that are vulnerable to soil conditions (e.g., sowing and soil preparation) and/or at fields with poor drainage soil were small, this threshold should be a reasonable and quantitative measure of the meteorological constraint on field workability. Using 1-km gridded API values under historical and future climates calculated from a large ensemble dataset of daily mean air temperature and precipitation, we separated workable and unworkable days from June to October based on a threshold value of 5 mm and calculated projected changes in monthly numbers of the total workable day and consecutive unworkable day. While there were slight negative effects in several regions in the Southern and Central regions under future climate with a 4-K higher global mean temperature, preferable changes prevailed in both metrics in the other regions and months. The present results facilitate probabilistic discussion of changes in agricultural calendars and suggest that climate change may extend the agricultural season in Hokkaido.

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Section: Limitations Of the Present Studymentioning

confidence: 99%

Projected changes in field workability of agricultural machinery operations for upland crop production in +4 K Hokkaido, Japan

Murakami

Inoue

Nemoto

et al. 2022

Preprint

Self Cite

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“…Sprouting potatoes, or so-called volunteer potatoes, continue to increase during wheat cropping and become a source of renewal volunteer potatoes in the following year. High summer temperatures have reduced potato yields (Shimoda et al 2018a(Shimoda et al , 2023aSugawara et al 2021), and volunteer potatoes have S. Shimoda et al become a reservoir of disease and nematode infestation, reducing product quality and causing growers to lose their motivation to produce potatoes. The main method to control volunteer potatoes has been glyphosate-based herbicides, which are costly, ineffective, and not sustainable and have not been widely adopted in the region.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Promotion to Farmers of Snow Compaction (Yuki-Fumi) on Winter Wheat to Control Volunteer Potatoes without Depending on Chemical Materials

SHIMODA,

HIROTA,

ONODERA

2023

JARQ

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Adaptation to climate change in response to changes in snow cover has led to the development of snow control technology on agricultural fields in Hokkaido. In the control of the soil frost depth and freezing to death of potato tuber leftovers in harvesting during the subsequent cultivation, winter wheat has been an effective countermeasure in crop rotation systems in Hokkaido. We investigated a method used to control soil frost depth by snow compaction (yuki-fumi) to balance between killing potatoes and growing winter wheat. In an experimental test in NARO, we found that snow compaction has a negative effect on wheat growth at a very early stage of the snow cover. Snow compaction does not reduce soil temperatures as much as snow removal, but in potato-to-wheat rotation, it reduced volunteer potatoes by 1/10 because of the shallow position of unharvested potatoes. Snow compaction on wheat can control volunteer potatoes without depending on pesticides and does not adversely affect wheat growth. These environment-friendly agricultural systems have gradually become widespread in eastern Hokkaido.

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Stochastic Precipitation Model Using Large Ensemble Data

Shinohara,

Inatsu

2023

J. Disaster Res.

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A precipitation dataset is created to estimate a reproduction period of several thousand years for stochastic flood risk assessment in the non-life insurance sector. A stochastic precipitation model for natural hazard risk assessment developed in a previous study was applied to a large ensemble data. The model was used to obtain the precipitation ensembles for the recent and future climate by +2 K and +4 K increases in mean temperature, respectively. We successfully created 10,000 years of precipitation data, which makes it possible to obtain precipitation data over a 1,000-year return period.

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Risk Assessment and Possible Adaptation of Potato Production in Hokkaido to Climate Change Using a Large Number Ensemble Climate Dataset d4PDF

Cited by 5 publications

References 25 publications

Projected changes in field workability of agricultural machinery operations for upland crop production in +4 K Hokkaido, Japan

Projected changes in field workability of agricultural machinery operations for upland crop production in +4 K Hokkaido, Japan

Promotion to Farmers of Snow Compaction (Yuki-Fumi) on Winter Wheat to Control Volunteer Potatoes without Depending on Chemical Materials

Stochastic Precipitation Model Using Large Ensemble Data

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