Response of northern forests to CO2-induced climate change

Pastor, John; Post, Wilfred M.

doi:10.1038/334055a0

Cited by 574 publications

(295 citation statements)

References 25 publications

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“…However, they have originally been constructed to study forest dynamics for a particular location with a given, non-changing climate (BOTKIN et al, 1972a,b;PASTOR & POST, 1985). Based on the following arguments this fact has more consequences than previously recognized in the studies that apply conventional gap models to climate change scenarios (SOLOMON et al, 1981(SOLOMON et al, , 1984SOLOMON, 1986;SOLOMON & WEST, 1987;PASTOR & POST, 1988;OVERPECK et al, 1990;KIENAST, 1991): Our results indicate that the species composition of the studied forests is sensitive to dropping the assumption of a constant climate and that any switching to alternative formulations of the climatic parametrizations affects the steady state behaviour of the system significantly. Hence, to obtain reliable results, the climate parametrization must account for possible climatic changes more consistently.…”

Section: Conclusion Forest Gap Models and Climate Changementioning

confidence: 71%

“…The widely used forest gap models (BOTKIN et al, 1972a,b; 1 The International Geosphere-Biosphere Program: A Study of Global Change Sensitivity of a Forest Ecosystem Model to Climate Parametrization Schemes 4 SHUGART & WEST, 1977;SHUGART, 1984) are capable of producing realistic transient and climax forests for current climatic conditions and operate on a spatial and temporal scale that is of interest to climate change impact studies. Hence, many gap models have already been applied to project future forests under scenarios of a changing climate (SOLOMON et al, 1981(SOLOMON et al, , 1984SOLOMON, 1986;SOLOMON & WEST, 1987;PASTOR & POST, 1988;OVERPECK et al, 1990;KIENAST, 1991).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Sensitivity of a forest ecosystem model to climate parametrization schemes

Fischlin¹,

Bugmann

Gyalistras³

1995

Environmental Pollution

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Section: Conclusion Forest Gap Models and Climate Changementioning

confidence: 71%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sensitivity of a forest ecosystem model to climate parametrization schemes

Fischlin¹,

Bugmann

Gyalistras³

1995

Environmental Pollution

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“…This is the rationale behind the hybrid simulation approach to forest growth and C dynamics modelling (Kimmins, 1993;Battaglia et al, 1999;Kimmins et al, 1999;Peng, 2000b). Specifically, incorporating the key elements of empirical and process approaches into a hybrid ecosystem modelling approach can result in a model that predicts forest growth, production and C dynamics in both the short and long term (Pastor and Post, 1988;Battaglia and Sands, 1998;Kimmins et al, 1999).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

TRIPLEX: a generic hybrid model for predicting forest growth and carbon and nitrogen dynamics

Peng

Liu

Dang

et al. 2002

Ecological Modelling

190

120

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“…Unusual droughts and variation in rainfall are recognized more and more as important in tropical forests (Foster 1982a, Hartshorn 1992, Leigh et al 1990, Woods 1989), but we know little about how populations of individual species change as a result. Certainly we know that past climate changes have led to shifts in species' distributions , Hamilton & Taylor 1991, Sukumar et al 1993, and in temperate forests, detailed descriptions of range shifts that accompany past climate changes are so well documented (Davis 1981, Delcourt & Delcourt, 1987) that precise predictions on the impact of future climate scenarios can be made (Botkin & Nisbet 1992, Dale & Franklin 1989, Franklin et al 1992, Overpeck et al 1990, Pastor & Post 1988, Shugart & Smith 1992, Solomon 1986, Urban et al 1993. The species-specific information behind these predictions is not available for most tropical forests.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Changes in tree species abundance in a Neotropical forest: impact of climate change

Condit¹,

1996

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JSTOR is a not-for-profit service that helps scholars, researchers, and students discover, use, and build upon a wide range of content in a trusted digital archive. We use information technology and tools to increase productivity and facilitate new forms of scholarship. For more information about JSTOR, please contact support@jstor.org.. ABSTRACT. The abundance of all tree and shrub species has been monitored for eight years in a 50 ha census plot in tropical moist forest in central Panama. Here we examine population trends of the 219 most numerous species in the plot, assessing the impact of a long-term drying trend. Population change was calculated as the mean rate of increase (or decrease) over eight years, considering either all stems :10 mm diameter at breast height (dbh) or just stems :100 mm dbh. For stems B 10 mm, 40% of the species had mean growth rates <1 % per year (either increasing or decreasing) and 12%l had changes B5/5% per year. For stems 100 mm, the figures were 38% anid 8%. Cambridge University PressSpecies that specialize on the slopes of the plot, a moist microhabitat relative to the plateau, suffered significanitly more declines in abundance than species that did not prefer slopes (stems 10 mm dbh). This pattern was due entirely to species of small stature: 91 % of treelets and shrubs that were slope-specialists declined in abundance, but just 19% of non-slope treelets and shrubs declined. Among larger trees, slope and non-slope species fared equally. For stems I100 mm dbh, the slope effect vanished because there were few shrubs and treelets with stems I100 mm dbh. Another edaphic guild of species, those occurring preferentially in a small swamp in the centre of the plot, were no mor-e likely to decline in abundance than non-swamp species, regardless of growth form. Species that preferentially colonize canopy gaps in the plot were slightly more likely to decrease in abundance than non-colonizing species (only for stems B10 mm dbh, not B100 mm). Despite this overall trend, however, several colonizing species had the most rapidly increasing populations in the plot.The impact of a 25-year drying trend and an associated increase in the severity of the 4-month dry season is having an obvious impact on the BCI forest. At least 16 species of shrubs and treelets with affinities for moist microhabitats are headed for extinctioin in the plot. Presumably, these species invaded the forest during a wetter period prior to 1966. A severe drought of 1983 that caused ulnusually high tr-ee mortality contributed to this trend, anid may also have been responsible for sharp increases in abundance of a few gap-colonizers because it temporarily opened the forest canopy. The BCI forest is remarkably sensitive to a subtle climatic shift, yet we do not know whether this is typical for tropical folrests because no other lalge-scale censuses exist fol comparisonl.

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Response of northern forests to CO2-induced climate change

Cited by 574 publications

References 25 publications

Sensitivity of a forest ecosystem model to climate parametrization schemes

Sensitivity of a forest ecosystem model to climate parametrization schemes

TRIPLEX: a generic hybrid model for predicting forest growth and carbon and nitrogen dynamics

Changes in tree species abundance in a Neotropical forest: impact of climate change

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