Response of melt water and rainfall runoff to climate change and their roles in controlling streamflow changes of the two upstream basins over the Tibetan Plateau

Zhang, Yueguan; Hao, Zhenchun; Xu, Chong‐Yu; Lai, Xide

doi:10.2166/nh.2019.075

Cited by 19 publications

(16 citation statements)

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“…Projected increases in air temperature and associated precipitation regime shifts are expected to have significant consequences for snowmelt and water resources (Ficklin et al, 2016). Although many studies have investigated snowmelt in single or multiple basins (e.g., Zhang et al, 2015Zhang et al, , 2020Li et al, 2019Li et al, , 2021, the spatiotemporal variability in snowmelt in China and its response to climate warming remain unclear.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trends and variability in snowmelt in China under climate change

Yang

Chen

et al. 2022

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Snowmelt is a major fresh water resource, and quantifying snowmelt and its variability under climate change is necessary for the planning and management of water resources. Spatiotemporal changes in snow properties in China have drawn wide attention in recent decades; however, country-wide assessments of snowmelt are lacking. Using precipitation and temperature data with a high spatial resolution (0.5′; approximately 1 km), this study calculated the monthly snowmelt in China for the 1951–2017 period, using a simple temperature index model, and the model outputs were validated using snowfall, snow depth, snow cover extent and snow water equivalent. Precipitation and temperature scenarios developed from five CMIP5 models were used to predict future snowmelt in China under three different representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The results show that the mean annual snowmelt in China from 1951 to 2017 is 2.41×1011 m3 yr−1. The mean annual snowmelt values in Northern Xinjiang, Northeast China and the Tibetan Plateau – China's three main stable snow cover regions – are 0.18×1011, 0.42×1011 and 1.15×1011 m3 yr−1, respectively. From 1951 to 2017, the snowmelt increased significantly in the Tibetan Plateau and decreased significantly in northern, central and southeastern China. In the whole of China, there was a decreasing trend in snowmelt, but this was not statistically significant. The mean annual snowmelt runoff ratios are generally more than 10 % in almost all third-level basins in West China, more than 5 % in third-level basins in North and Northeast China and less than 2 % in third-level basins in South China. From 1951 to 2017, the annual snowmelt runoff ratios decreased in most third-level basins in China. Under RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, the projected snowmelt in China in the near future (2011–2040; mid-future –2041–2070; far future – 2071–2099) may decrease by 10.4 % (15.8 %; 13.9 %), 12.0 % (17.9 %; 21.1 %) and 11.7 % (24.8 %; 36.5 %) compared to the reference period (1981–2010), respectively. Most of the projected mean annual snowmelt runoff ratios in third-level basins in different future periods are lower than those in the reference period. Low temperature regions can tolerate more warming, and the snowmelt change in these regions is mainly influenced by precipitation; however, the snowmelt change in warm regions is more sensitive to temperature increases. The spatial variability in snowmelt changes may lead to regional differences in the impact of snowmelt on water supply.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trends and variability in snowmelt in China under climate change

Yang

Chen

et al. 2022

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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“…Y. Zhang et al. (2020) used the same model for the estimation of streamflow components under changing climate. Zhao et al.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…These studies have used different cryospheric-hydrological models such as Spatial Processes in Hydrology (SPHY; Lutz et al, 2014Lutz et al, , 2016, TOPKAPI-ETH model (Ragettli et al, 2013(Ragettli et al, , 2016, HBV model (Etter et al, 2017;Jost et al, 2012;Stahl et al, 2008), variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model ( L. Zhang et al, 2013;Zhao et al, 2013), the Distributed Hydrology Vegetation Soil Model (DHSVM; Frans et al, 2015Frans et al, , 2016Mimeau et al, 2019;Naz et al, 2014), and Glacier Evolution Runoff Model (GERM; Huss et al, 2008Huss et al, , 2014. There are a few studies which integrate VIC with a glacier model (Ren et al, 2018;Zhang et al, 2013Zhang et al, , 2020Zhao et al, 2013). L. Zhang et al (2013) used a temperature index model for simulating glacier melt that was integrated with the outputs from VIC based on an area weighted factor, similar to the present study.…”

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confidence: 99%

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Components of Himalayan River Flows in a Changing Climate

Chandel

Ghosh

2021

Water Resources Research

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Assessment of the response of the Himalayan river flows to climate change is complex due to multiple contributors: rainfall, snowmelt, and glacier‐melt. The number of studies is limited in this direction due to lack of data availability as well as non‐availability of models considering all the above‐mentioned components. As for example, the state‐of‐the‐art variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model does not account for the glacier melt. Here we integrate a glacier‐melt model with VIC and validate the model output with observed streamflow in five river basins in the Himalayas, at daily scale. Our model simulates the streamflow with Nash‐Sutcliffe estimates greater than 0.65 in all basins. The sensitivity analysis shows that the contribution from snowmelt decreases substantially in all the five basins with highest decrease of 36% in Dudh Kosi (DK), in a warm and dry scenario. The glacier‐melt increases (15%–70%) in a warmer environment with its present volume, but decreases (3%–38%) substantially, when the volumes are reduced to half. However, such a decrease is found to be compensated by increased precipitation in a wetter scenario with a net increase of 3%–13%. Climate model simulations show a decrease in the spring onset times for Sutlej basin while increase for DK basin for both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Sutlej and Arun basins show decreases of more than 6 days in the center of volume of streamflow, which suggests that there will be increased flows in the early part of year and reduced flows later in the year.

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“…Therefore, it is necessary to assess the impact of climate change on the water resources in the watersheds of the Tibetan Plateau region. However, in previous studies, most studies have focused on the impact of precipitation changes on BWF [22,23]. In fact, temperature is also a major factor that can influence water resources, especially GWF.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of Climate Change on Blue and Green Water Resources in the Middle and Upper Yarlung Zangbo River, China

Huo

Zhu

et al. 2021

Atmosphere

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The Yarlung Zangbo River is the largest river on the Tibetan Plateau and a major international river in South Asia. Changes in the blue and green water resources in its basin are of great importance to the surrounding local and Asian regions in the context of global warming. This research used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool model to estimate blue and green flows (BWF and GWF) and analyze the spatial-temporal distribution characteristics under different hypothetical climate change scenarios. The results show that (1) the multi-year average BWF in the middle and upper reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin is 176.2 mm, the GWF is 213.1 mm, and the difference between precipitation and total water resources is only 5.4 mm; (2) both BWF and GWF in this basin showed a slightly increasing trend from 1980 to 2010, but the distribution of subbasins from upstream to downstream is decreasing; and (3) GWF has a positive correlation with both precipitation and temperature, but BWF only increases with precipitation and decreases with increasing temperature. Moreover, the change in blue and green water resources is more sensitive to the changes in precipitation than to changes in the temperature.

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Response of melt water and rainfall runoff to climate change and their roles in controlling streamflow changes of the two upstream basins over the Tibetan Plateau

Cited by 19 publications

References 30 publications

Trends and variability in snowmelt in China under climate change

Trends and variability in snowmelt in China under climate change

Components of Himalayan River Flows in a Changing Climate

Impacts of Climate Change on Blue and Green Water Resources in the Middle and Upper Yarlung Zangbo River, China

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