Response of cotton phenology to climate change on the North China Plain from 1981 to 2012

Abstract

To identify countermeasures for the impacts of climate change on crop production, exploring the changes in crop phenology and their relationship to climate change is required. This study was based on cotton phenology and climate data collected from 13 agro-meteorological experimental stations and 13 meteorological stations on the North China Plain from 1981 to 2012. Spatiotemporal trends in the cotton phenology data, lengths of the different growing phases, mean temperatures, and rainfall were analyzed. These results indicated that warming accelerated cotton growth, advanced cotton phenology, and shortened the growing period of cotton. However, harvest dates were significantly delayed at 8 (61.5%) stations, the length of both the flowering-boll opening and boll opening-harvest periods increased at 10 (77.0%) stations, and a positive correlation was found between the mean temperature and the length of the whole growing period at 10 (77.0%) stations. Therefore, cotton practices and cultivars on the North China Plain should be adjusted accordingly. The response of cotton phenology to climate change, as shown here, can further guide the development of options for the adaptation of cotton production in the near future.Climate change is projected to dramatically affect crop production across broad regions of the world in the 21 st century 1 . Many recent studies have shown that climate change has a significant impact on crop production 2-4 . Lobell et al. 2 reported that each degree day above 30 °C decreased the African maize yield by 1% under optimal precipitation conditions and by 1.7% under drought conditions. Moreover, Liu et al. 3 showed that over the past 40 years, increased temperatures have caused the northward expansion of the northern limit of maize in Northeast China. Chen et al. 4 studied the impact of climate change on cotton yields in China, and the results showed that climate change decreased cotton yields. However, beneficial effects were found in the cotton-growing regions of Northwest China from 1961 to 2010. Therefore, the potential impact of climate change on the development and productivity of field crops is of great concern and has been evaluated extensively through simulation models, statistical analyses, and field experiments [5][6][7] .Phenology refers to periodic life-cycle events and is important for plant survival and reproduction 8 . Plant phenology is strongly controlled by short-and long-term climate variability; consequently, phenological shifts have been among the strongest biological indicators of climate change 9, 10 . Phenological studies significantly contributed the conclusions of the International Panel of Climate Change's (IPCC's) Fourth Assessment Report that "there is very high confidence of biological responses to climate change, based on more evidences from a wider range of species" 11 . Therefore, investigations of the spatiotemporal changes in crop phenology and the relationships between phenology and climate change are important for understanding the processes and mecha...

The fingerprints of climate warming on cereal crops phenology and adaptation options

“…Increased temperature speeds growth, which leads to reduced yield. Ahmad et al 94 , Huang and Ji 95 and Wang et al 96 reported negative correlations of temperature rise with all the phenological stages besides cotton yield in central and lower Punjab regions of Pakistan. They further reported that about 30% of the negative consequences of climate warming are compensated by sowing new cotton cultivars with high thermal requirements.…”

Impact of Climate Warming on Cotton Growth and Yields in China and Pakistan: A Regional Perspective

“…Such shifts in plant density and the reallocation of sowing date management might help high-temperature areas such as Punjab, Pakistan and some parts of China. In the North China Plain (NCP) cotton belt, it was also discovered that the planting dates, seed emergence, squaring, flowering, and boll opening days were earlier by 0.25, 1.39, 0.92, 2.81, and 0.83 decade −1 [20,21].…”

“…Meanwhile, in Xinjiang, the plantation is smart and highly mechanized. The escalating temperature in cotton areas increases evapotranspiration rates, sometimes causing severe water stress [21,29] and fruit abscission, thus reducing plant growth and yield. The influence of elevated variations in the rain from mean values negatively resulted in the productivity of cotton.…”

Shortened key growth periods of soybean observed in China under climate change

“…In addition, temperature, precipitation, and sunshine hours are the most important climatic factors to meet the demand of water, light, and heat resource for crop growth 17 . Previous research has emphasized the effects of temperature 5 , 11 , 28 , whereas the impact of other important climatic factors especially precipitation and sunshine hours upon soybean growth periods remain largely unknown 12 , 18 , 29 , which can increase uncertainty of results. Moreover, studies of temperature’s effect on soybean growth and yield were mainly performed at a local scale 30 , 31 , while less attention has been given to the spatiotemporal variation in changes of soybean phenology and its responses to climate change among different cultivation regions, which is critical to guide regional climate adaptation strategies and estimate the spatial heterogeneity of soybean production.…”