Reservoir performance under uncertainty in hydrologic impacts of climate change

Raje, Deepashree; Mujumdar, P. P.

doi:10.1016/j.advwatres.2009.12.008

Cited by 185 publications

(84 citation statements)

References 49 publications

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“…The magnitude of key climate parameters (e.g., temperature and precipitation) and socioeconomic processes that form complex feedback relationships cannot be projected with certainty, reducing the ability to devise effective adaptation policies (Dessai and Van Der Sluijs 2007). To address this limitation, ensemble climate change projections (Raje and Mujumdar 2010;Zareian et al 2014) are used to analyze adaptation strategies for this agricultural, industrial, and environmental hotspot.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

System Dynamics Evaluation of Climate Change Adaptation Strategies for Water Resources Management in Central Iran

Gohari

Mirchi

Madani

2017

Water Resour Manage

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The Zayandeh-Rud River basin, Iran, is projected to face spatiotemporally heterogeneous temperature increase and precipitation reduction that will decrease water supply by mid-century. With projected increase (0.70-1.03°C) in spring temperature and reduction (6-55%) in winter precipitation, the upper Zayandeh-Rud sub-basin, the main source of renewable water supply, will likely become warmer and drier. In the lower sub-basin, 1.1-1.5°C increase in temperature and 11-31% decrease in annual precipitation are likely. A system dynamics model was used to analyze adaptation strategies taking into account feedbacks between water resources development and biophysical and socioeconomic sub-systems. Results suggest that infrastructural improvements, rigorous water demand management (e.g., replacing high water demand crops such as rice, corn, and alfalfa), and ecosystem-based regulatory prioritization, complemented by supply augmentation can temporarily alleviate water stress in a basin that is essentially governed by the Limits to Growth archetype.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

System Dynamics Evaluation of Climate Change Adaptation Strategies for Water Resources Management in Central Iran

Gohari

Mirchi

Madani

2017

Water Resour Manage

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“…In particular in the context of multi-purpose reservoirs, the analysis of alternative future operation strategies is essential, as e.g. in the work of Raje and Mujumdar (2010) that analyzed a reservoir on the Mahanadi river in Orissa (India) used for hydropower, flood protection and irrigation.…”

Section: Projecting Future Hpp Managementmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projecting hydropower production under future climates: a guide for decision‐makers and modelers to interpret and design climate change impact assessments

Schaefli

2015

WIREs Water

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Hydropower is a key energy source in almost all world regions, it fuels social and economic development, ensures electricity security and is a pillar for renewable electricity production. But hydropower and its environmental impacts are vulnerable to climate change. This discussion of model-based climate change impact assessments and underlying modelling assumptions will help decision makers and scientists analyzing existing studies and identifying the most urgent open questions. Rooted in hydrological uncertainty analysis, this discussion focuses on the importance of local factors and on modelling uncertainties for a critical view on our ability to project future hydropower production in different world regions.

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“…Fowler et al, 2003;Nawaz and Adeloye, 2006). However, as widely recognised (see Raje and Mujumdar, 2010), there are uncertainties in GCMs climate change predictions not only between GCMs but also within GCMs (Peel et al, 2014). The latter relates to the inability of a GCM to produce the same output over different runs, while the former concerns variability in outputs of different GCM experiments caused largely by structural, parametrisation and initialisation differences.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantifying the uncertainties of climate change effects on the storage-yield and performance characteristics of the Pong multi-purpose reservoir, India

2015

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Abstract. Climate change is predicted to affect water resources infrastructure due to its effect on rainfall, temperature and evapotranspiration. However, there are huge uncertainties on both the magnitude and direction of these effects. The Pong reservoir on the Beas River in northern India serves irrigation and hydropower needs. The hydrology of the catchment is highly influenced by Himalayan seasonal snow and glaciers, and Monsoon rainfall; the changing pattern of the latter and the predicted disappearance of the former will have profound effects on the performance of the reservoir. This study employed a Monte-Carlo simulation approach to characterise the uncertainties in the future storage requirements and performance of the reservoir. Using a calibrated rainfall-runoff (R-R) model, the baseline runoff scenario was first simulated. The R-R inputs (rainfall and temperature) were then perturbed using plausible delta-changes to produce simulated climate change runoff scenarios. Stochastic models of the runoff were developed and used to generate ensembles of both the current and climatechange perturbed future scenarios. The resulting runoff ensembles were used to simulate the behaviour of the reservoir and determine "populations" of reservoir storage capacity and performance characteristics. Comparing these parameters between the current and the perturbed provided the population of climate change effects which was then analysed to determine the uncertainties. The results show that contrary to the usual practice of using single records, there is wide variability in the assessed impacts. This variability or uncertainty will, no doubt, complicate the development of climate change adaptation measures; however, knowledge of its sheer magnitude as demonstrated in this study will help in the formulation of appropriate policy and technical interventions for sustaining and possibly enhancing water security for irrigation and other uses served by Pong reservoir.

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Reservoir performance under uncertainty in hydrologic impacts of climate change

Cited by 185 publications

References 49 publications

System Dynamics Evaluation of Climate Change Adaptation Strategies for Water Resources Management in Central Iran

System Dynamics Evaluation of Climate Change Adaptation Strategies for Water Resources Management in Central Iran

Projecting hydropower production under future climates: a guide for decision‐makers and modelers to interpret and design climate change impact assessments

Quantifying the uncertainties of climate change effects on the storage-yield and performance characteristics of the Pong multi-purpose reservoir, India

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