Projecting hydropower production under future climates: a guide for decision‐makers and modelers to interpret and design climate change impact assessments

Schaefli, Bettina

doi:10.1002/wat2.1083

Cited by 79 publications

(66 citation statements)

References 140 publications

(321 reference statements)

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“…Assessing the impact of climatic changes in impoundment schemes is rather complex [4,18], requiring information such as inter-basin transfers and design specifications. The existing literature generally evaluates single locations, not establishing how to include multiple sites at national or regional levels, due to the need for detailed information on the operational behavior of each site.…”

Section: Regional Scalementioning

confidence: 99%

“…The use of several scenarios assists in the estimation of different uncertainties involved in hydro-climatic modelling [57], such as parameter uncertainty and model structural uncertainty. Climate models that consider a multi-model set, such as ENSEMBLES or CMIP5, provide more reliable assessment since they include different uncertainties [4]. Table 3 presents some insights on the possible climatic changes and their consequences in the runoff, flow of the rivers and generation of energy in hydroelectric reservoirs.…”

Section: Regional Scalementioning

confidence: 99%

“…It is the main source of renewable energy in South America, followed by biofuels [3]. In several regions of the world (e.g., Southeast Asia and South America), the hydroelectric plants are one of the pillars for the production of renewable energy, but, at the same time, they are vulnerable to the impacts of climate change [4]. These changes are causing the majority of the variations in hydroelectric potential [5].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…GCMs produce climate projections, providing information on climate uncertainties and water availability more roughly, and are used directly in forecasting runoff in more general studies [14]. The simulations of climate change impacts are generally carried out with a control period and future scenarios of 30 years, comprising three phases of simulation, namely: model development, control simulation (base period), and simulation of future scenarios [4], in addition to using different variables (Figure 2). …”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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An Overview of Hydropower Reservoirs in Brazil: Current Situation, Future Perspectives and Impacts of Climate Change

Dias

Luz

Medero

et al. 2018

Water

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Global climate change, related to the greenhouse gases emission, impacts hydroelectric power generation mainly due to the increase in air temperature and changes in the precipitation patterns. As a consequence, it affects basin evapotranspiration process, runoff, sediment transport as well as evaporation of reservoirs. This study analysed the current and future Brazilian context of hydroelectric reservoirs and investigated the potential impacts of climate change on hydropower generation and possible mitigation adjustments, giving relevant examples from around the world. Moreover, it is key to consider other factors that influence the availability of water resources such as: (a) upstream development of reservoirs, mainly the development of agricultural systems, which can contribute to increased water demand; (b) changes in land use, which can have an impact on soil degradation and sediment transport. Hydroelectric dams are a possible alternative to mitigate the impacts of climate change considering that those impacts could generate the need of adaptive actions. The assessment of climate change impacts' projections anticipates possible future scenarios and can assist in strategic planning together with the definition of adaptive operational policies.

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Section: Regional Scalementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Regional Scalementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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An Overview of Hydropower Reservoirs in Brazil: Current Situation, Future Perspectives and Impacts of Climate Change

Dias

Luz

Medero

et al. 2018

Water

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“…Mixed methods are a pragmatic way to integrate results from natural sciences and economics (Creswell and Plano Clark 2011). As highlighted by Schaefli (2015), no consensus has been reached on the method to assess uncertainty in hydrology. This statement is all the more true in a transdisciplinary study.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Long-term Uncertainty of Hydropower Revenue Due to Climate Change and Electricity Prices

Gaudard

Gabbi²,

Bauder³

et al. 2016

Water Resour Manage

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Hydropower represents the world's largest renewable energy source. As a flexible technology, it enhances reliability and security of the electricity system. However, climate change and market liberalization may hinder investment due to the evolution of water runoffs and electricity prices. Both alter expected revenue and bring uncertainty. It increases risk and deters investment. Our research assesses how climate change and market fluctuation affect annual revenue. But this paper focuses on the uncertainty, rather than on forecasting. This transdisciplinary topic is investigated by means of a mixed method, i.e. both quantitative and qualitative. The quantitative approach uses established models in natural sciences and economics. The uncertainty is accounted for by applying various scenarios and various datasets coming from different models. Based on those results, uncertainty is discussed through an analysis discerning three dimensions of uncertainty. Uncertainty analysis requires the assessment of a large panel of models and data sets. It is therefore rarely carried out. The originality of the paper also lies on the combination of quantitative established models with a qualitative analysis. The results surprisingly show that the greenhouse gas scenarios may in fact represent a low source of uncertainty, unlike electricity prices. Like forecasting, the main uncertainties are actually case study related and depend on the investigated variables. It is also shown that the nature of uncertainty evolves. Runoff uncertainty goes from variability, i.e. inherent randomness, to epistemic, i.e. limitation of science. The reverse situation occurs with the electricity price. The implications for scientists and policy makers are discussed.

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Impacts of changing climate on the hydrology and hydropower production of the Tagus River basin

Lobanova

Koch

Liersch

et al. 2016

Hydrological Processes

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The Tagus River basin is an ultimately important water source for hydropower production, urban and agricultural water supply in Spain and Portugal. Growing electricity and water supply demands, over‐regulation of the river and construction of new dams, as well as large inter‐basin and intra‐basin water transfers aggravated by strong natural variability of climate in the catchment, have already imposed significant pressures on the river. The substantial reduction of discharge is observed already now, and projected climatic change is expected to alter the water budget of the catchment further.In this study, we address the effects of projected climate change on the water resources availability in the Tagus River basin and influence of potential changes on hydropower generation of the three important reservoirs in the basin. The catchment‐scale, process‐based eco‐hydrological model soil and water integrated model was set up, calibrated and validated for the entire Tagus River basin, taking into account 15 large reservoirs in the catchment. The future climate projections were selected from those generated within the Inter‐Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project. They include five bias‐corrected climatic datasets for the region, obtained from global circulation model runs under two emissions scenario – moderate and extreme ones – and covered the whole century. The results show a strong agreement among model runs in projecting substantial decrease of discharge of the Tagus River discharge and, consequently, a strong decrease in hydropower production under both future climate scenarios. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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Projecting hydropower production under future climates: a guide for decision‐makers and modelers to interpret and design climate change impact assessments

Cited by 79 publications

References 140 publications

An Overview of Hydropower Reservoirs in Brazil: Current Situation, Future Perspectives and Impacts of Climate Change

An Overview of Hydropower Reservoirs in Brazil: Current Situation, Future Perspectives and Impacts of Climate Change

Long-term Uncertainty of Hydropower Revenue Due to Climate Change and Electricity Prices

Impacts of changing climate on the hydrology and hydropower production of the Tagus River basin

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