Research on Dynamic Evolution Simulation and Sustainability Evaluation Model of China’s Power Supply and Demand System

Abstract

Power supply and demand systems are important support systems for industrial production and residents’ lives. They have multiple influencing factors, and complex mechanisms of interaction exist among these factors. In view of the present sustainability problems faced by China’s power supply and demand system, this research adopts a system dynamics (SD) model to simulate the evolution of China’s power supply and demand system, and analyzes the interaction mechanism of various elements of the system. Based on this, an innovative index system for the evaluation of the sustainability of power supply and demand systems is proposed based on the four elements of total amount, structure, technology and environment. Furthermore, by integrating Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and State Space (SS) method, a PCA-SS evaluation model is constructed to explore the development bottleneck of China’s power supply and demand system. The results show that there is still a large gap between the actual sustainability and the ideal range, and that the sustainability of structural and environmental layers needs further improvement. This research expands the knowledge system regarding the evaluation of the sustainability of power supply and demand systems and provides a theoretical reference for the optimization of China’s power supply and demand system.