Reporting Climate Change Impacts on Coastal Ports (NW Iberian Peninsula): A Review of Flooding Extent

Abstract

Ports significantly impact the economic activity in coastal areas. Future climate change projections indicate that the frequency and intensity of extreme sea levels (ESL) will increase, putting several port facilities at risk of flooding with impacts on the port’s reliability and operability. The northwest Iberian Peninsula (NWIP) coast is crossed by one of the most important and busiest shipping lanes in the Atlantic Ocean and features several ports that provide an essential gateway to Europe. In this context, the main aim of this study is to present a review of the extent of flooding under future climatic scenarios in selected NWIP ports, considered representative of the diversity of the coastal areas in this region. The ports of Aveiro (lagoon), Lisbon (estuary), Vigo (Ria) and A Coruña Outer Port (marine) are considered in this study due to their location in different coastal environments, which brings distinct challenges related to climate change local impact. For each port area, the risk of flooding was assessed under climate change scenarios using CMIP5 RCP8.5 for the climate periods between 1979–2005, 2026–2045 and 2081–2099, considering the return periods of 10, 25 and 100 years for storm surges, riverine input and wave regime. The flood pattern varies significantly according to the location of the ports. The ports in lagoons and estuaries are more prone to floods by ESL due to their location in low and flat topography regions. Rias, with a funnel-shaped valley and irregular topography, make the ports in this environment resilient to a sea level rise. Marine environments are exposed to harsh oceanic drivers, however, the ports in these areas are usually built to withstand significant wave conditions with return periods of a hundred years, making them resilient to climate change impacts.

Integrated modeling of hydrosedimentological processes for port resilience and environmental assessment for decision-making: Case study of the Paraíba do Sul River, Brazil

“…The challenge lies in the effective adaptation of integrated predictive modeling approaches to capture the complexity and variability of climate impacts, both on a local and global scale, in port zones. The main gap lies in the definition of specific methodologies and the implementation of high-resolution data that allow an accurate prediction of the interaction between extreme precipitation events and sedimentary and water dynamics, taking into account future climate variations [17,18]. Integrated predictive modeling is essential for water resource management, urban planning, climate change adaptation, and disaster mitigation.…”