Abstract. This paper explores the probability summation model in an attempt to provide insight to the model's utility and ultimately its validity. The model is a statistical description of multiple-pulse (MP) damage trends. It computes the probability of n pulses causing damage from knowledge of the single-pulse dose-response curve. Recently, the model has been used to make a connection between the observed n −1∕4 trends in MP damage thresholds for short pulses (<10 μs) and experimental uncertainties, suggesting that the observed trend is an artifact of experimental methods. We will consider the correct application of the model in this case. We also apply this model to the spot-size dependence of short pulse damage thresholds, which has not been done previously. Our results predict that the damage threshold trends with respect to the irradiated area should be similar to the MP damage threshold trends, and that observed spot-size dependence for short pulses seems to display this trend, which cannot be accounted for by the thermal models.