Religion and Preferences: A Decision-theoretic Explanation of Turkey’s New Foreign Policy

Abstract

Religious beliefs can affect preferences of decision makers who formulate and guide foreign policy. This article investigates the relationship between preferences affected by Islamic worldview of Turkey's new leadership and foreign policy the new elite conduct through two simple models. The models are games against nature; thus, Turkey is the only decision maker facing no strategic uncertainty. It is found that the subjective estimates of achieving gains under the new foreign policy (NWP) and the old foreign policy (SQP) are critical and distinct from gains and costs of both policies. The new Turkish foreign policy (NWP) is a reversible move, even though Turkish decision makers evaluate it as generating a higher gain and a lower cost compared with the preservation of the status quo (SQP). The implementation of the NWP does not only depend on its gain but also on how attractive is the SQP.Turkish foreign policy nowadays attracts analysts' attention worldwide. Deteriorated Israel-Turkey relations and especially the recent crisis of aid flotilla to Gaza prompt many scholars to question whether Turkey, a NATO member and an ally of Israel, now completed its re-alignment moves by spectacularly siding with Iran, Syria, and even Hamas.

Uluslararası Antlaşmaların Analizi Üzerinden Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi Döneminde Türkiye’nin Değişen Ortadoğu Politikası

“…Mevcut literatürdeki çalışmalar Türkiye'nin değişen Ortadoğu politikasını farklı yöntemler kullanarak test etmiştir. Bu çalışmaların önemli bir kısmı iddia edilen değişimi ortaya çıkarmak için hükümet yetkililerinin söylemlerini içeriksel olarak analiz etmiş (Sadık, 2012;Güner, 2012;Yeşiltaş, 2013;Güney ve Mandacı, 2013;Aras, 2014;Yalvaç, 2014), diğer bir kısmı ise politika uygulamalarını ticaret veya doğrudan yabancı yatırım düzeyleri kapsamında incelemiştir (Öniş ve Yılmaz, 2009;Tür, 2011;Kutlay, 2011;İpek, 2013;Hatipoğlu ve Palmer, 2014;Müftüler Baç, 2014;Kirişçi, 2009;…”

Manifestations of Islam in Turkey’s Foreign Policy: Islamic Internationalism and Turkish Islam

“…24-5) . however, others disassociate turkish foreign policy from islam and argue that turkey follows economic and political benefits and national interests in its relations with Muslim countries and communities, and in the case of any conflict of interest, it is argued that turkey is ready to abandon them (aydın, 2003;ayoob 2012;Güner, 2012;tuğal, 2007) . The debate therefore is grouped around arguments of accusations and disassociation .…”