Reliability-Based Flood Management in Urban Watersheds Considering Climate Change Impacts

There has recently been a return in climate change risk management practice to bottom‐up, robustness‐based planning paradigms introduced 40 years ago. The World Bank's decision tree framework (DTF) for “confronting climate uncertainty” is one incarnation of those paradigms. In order to better represent the state of the art in climate change risk assessment and evaluation techniques, this paper proposes: (1) an update to the DTF, replacing its “climate change stress test” with a multidimensional stress test; and (2) the addition of a Bayesian network framework that represents joint probabilistic behavior of uncertain parameters as sensitivity factors to aid in the weighting of scenarios of concern (the combination of conditions under which a water system fails to meet its performance targets). Using the updated DTF, water system planners and project managers would be better able to understand the relative magnitudes of the varied risks they face, and target investments in adaptation measures to best reduce their vulnerabilities to change. Next steps for the DTF include enhancements in: modeling of extreme event risks; coupling of human‐hydrologic systems; integration of surface water and groundwater systems; the generation of tradeoffs between economic, social, and ecological factors; incorporation of water quality considerations; and interactive data visualization.

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“…; Gain et al. ; Karamouz and Nazif ; Yang et al. ), and the consequent effect on water‐resource system performance.…”

Section: Next Steps For Climate Change Risk Managementmentioning

confidence: 99%

Growth of the Decision Tree: Advances in Bottom‐Up Climate Change Risk Management

Ray

Taner

Schlef

et al. 2018

J American Water Resour Assoc

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“…Flooding especially in populated urban areas could result in huge devastation, economic damage and loss of human life (Jha et al ., ). In recent years, due to climate change impacts, the intensity and frequency of floods in urban areas are increasing (Karamouz et al ., ; Karamouz and Nazif ; Sun et al ., ). Considering the serious damage caused by flooding in urban areas, special attention should be given to urban flood management.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Development of a Coupled Model for Simulation of Urban Drainage Process Based on Cellular Automata Approach

Abbasizadeh

Nazif

Hosseini

et al. 2017

Irrigation and Drainage

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Simulation of the interaction between an urban drainage system (UDS) and surface flow is a challenging issue. Conventional rainfall–runoff models are only able to simulate the flow in UDSs without considering the interaction between surface runoff and UDS. In this study, SWMM (storm water management model), as a well‐known urban drainage simulation model, and a two‐dimensional overland flow model developed based on the cellular automata approach, have been coupled for UDS simulation. In the proposed model, sewer flows are one‐dimensionally simulated using the SWMM model and at the flooded manholes, the surcharge hydrographs are determined. Then the two‐dimensional overland flow model is used for routing the surcharged flows. The coupled model could consider the complex interaction between the drainage system and the overland flow. The proposed model has been used in a study area located in Tehran, capital of Iran. The results show that almost 40% of surcharged flow returns back to the UDS, which caused 1.5% increase in the UDS's outflow volume. This can greatly affect the UDS performance downstream of the study area. The implementation results show the model's capability in simulation of flood behaviour as well as the urban inundated area with acceptable accuracy and much less computational effort. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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“…Urban drainage systems are an increasingly important part of urban infrastructure that conveys stormwater and wastewater away from urban areas and contributes to the general well-being of the urban population [1][2][3][4][5][6]. However, there are pressing challenges in design and operation of urban drainage systems due to climate change, urbanization, population increase and demographic change.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Vulnerability Analysis of Urban Drainage Systems: Tree vs. Loop Networks

et al. 2017

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Vulnerability analysis of urban drainage networks plays an important role in urban flood management. This study analyzes and compares the vulnerability of tree and loop systems under various rainfall events to structural failure represented by pipe blockage. Different pipe blockage scenarios, in which one of the pipes in an urban drainage network is assumed to be blocked individually, are constructed and their impacts on the network are simulated under different storm events. Furthermore, a vulnerability index is defined to measure the vulnerability of the drainage systems before and after the implementation of adaptation measures. The results obtained indicate that the tree systems have a relatively larger proportion of critical hydraulic pipes than the loop systems, thus the vulnerability of tree systems is substantially greater than that of the loop systems. Furthermore, the vulnerability index of tree systems is reduced after they are converted into a loop system with the implementation of adaptation measures. This paper provides an insight into the differences in the vulnerability of tree and loop systems, and provides more evidence for development of adaptation measures (e.g., tanks) to reduce urban flooding.

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Reliability-Based Flood Management in Urban Watersheds Considering Climate Change Impacts

Cited by 68 publications

References 20 publications

Growth of the Decision Tree: Advances in Bottom‐Up Climate Change Risk Management

Growth of the Decision Tree: Advances in Bottom‐Up Climate Change Risk Management

Development of a Coupled Model for Simulation of Urban Drainage Process Based on Cellular Automata Approach

Vulnerability Analysis of Urban Drainage Systems: Tree vs. Loop Networks

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