Reliability-based assessment of climatic adaptation for the increased resiliency of power distribution systems subjected to hurricanes

Bjarnadottir, Sigridur; Li, Yue; Reynisson, Oskar; Stewart, Mark G.

doi:10.1080/23789689.2017.1345255

Cited by 5 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 33 publications

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“…Indirect costs (e.g. loss of productivity in the community, cost of power outages (Bjarnadottir et al, 2018), a decline in revenue (Becker et al, 2015), unemployment, evacuation efforts (Whitehead, 2003) and intangible consequences (e.g. ecosystem damages (Becker et al, 2015), individuals' wellbeing (Berlemann, 2016)) should also be considered since they have a great effect on the total cost and impact of natural disasters (Dong and Li, 2016).…”

Section: Performance Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Performance-Based Coastal Engineering Framework

González-Dueñas

Padgett

2021

Front. Built Environ.

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The changing dynamics of coastal regions and climate pose severe challenges to coastal communities around the world. Effective planning of engineering projects and resilience strategies in coastal regions must not only address current conditions but also take into consideration the expected changes in the exposure and multi-hazard risk in these areas. However, existing performance-based engineering frameworks generally neglect time-varying factors and miss the opportunity to leverage related evidence as it becomes available. This paper proposes a Performance-Based Coastal Engineering (PBCE) framework that is flexible enough to accommodate uncertain time-varying factors, multi-hazard conditions, and cascading-effects. Furthermore, using a dynamic Bayesian network approach, the framework can incorporate observed evidence into the model to update the prior conditional distribution of the analyzed variables. As a proof of concept, two case studies—a typical elevated residential structure and a two-frame system—are presented, considering the effects of cascading failure, the incorporation of time-varying factors, and the influence of emerging evidence. Results show that neglecting cascading effects significantly underestimates the losses and that the incorporation of evidence reduces the uncertainty under the assumed distribution of evidence. The resulting PBCE framework can support data collection efforts, optimization of retrofitting strategies, integration of experts and community interests by facilitating interactions and knowledge sharing, as well as the identification of vulnerable regions and critical components in coastal multi-hazard regions.

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Section: Performance Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Performance-Based Coastal Engineering Framework

González-Dueñas

Padgett

2021

Front. Built Environ.

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“…Salman and Li (2016b) studied the cost-effectiveness of using stronger wood poles to adapt to climate change. Recently, Bjarnadottir et al (2018) and Ryan and Stewart (2017) studied the cost-effectiveness of various climate change adaptation strategies for wood power poles. However, the above studies did not provide a framework to optimize the management of a network of wood poles.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Optimization of Condition-Based Maintenance of Wood Utility Pole Network Subjected to Hurricane Hazard and Climate Change

Salman

Salarieh

Bastidas‐Arteaga

et al. 2020

Front. Built Environ.

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Electric power distribution systems that link the bulk power grid (generation and transmission systems) to customers are the leading cause of power outages due to their vulnerability to extreme wind events, especially hurricanes. The strength of the wood poles that typically support the distribution lines also deteriorate over time. The vulnerability of the poles is expected to increase due to the potential impact of climate change on both hurricane hazard and wood decay rate. As such, an effective maintenance planning method is required for the vast number of poles supporting distribution lines. This paper presents a framework to optimize the maintenance of a network of wood utility poles. Corrective replacement due to failure caused by hurricanes and preventive replacement due to excessive decay are considered. The objective is to find the optimal inspection interval for the preventive replacement to minimize the long-term maintenance cost. To solve the optimization problem, the decay of the poles is modeled as a stationary gamma process. The impact of climate change on the rate of pole failure and replacement is also investigated. Two locations are considered as case studies: Miami, Florida, and New York City, New York. The period from 2010 to 2099 is considered for the study. The results of the case study show that the optimal inspection/replacement cycle determined using the developed framework results in lower total maintenance costs compared to current typical utility practice. Based on the inspection and replacement costs used in the study, the results show that adopting a periodic preventive maintenance policy decreases the failure rate of the poles but increases the total maintenance cost. However, only the cost of replacing the poles is considered here. Other considerations, such as indirect costs due to power outages and the impact of pole failure on system reliability, can render the adoption of a preventive replacement policy cost-effective. The results also show that climate change can increase the total maintenance cost. Based on current typical utility maintenance practice, climate change can increase the total maintenance cost by up to 8% in Miami and 6% in NYC, depending on the emission scenario considered.

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Eigenvector dimension-reduction method for reliability analysis of power systems under the time-dependent load uncertainty

Chen

Xi²

2020

Sustainable and Resilient Infrastructure

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Reliability-based assessment of climatic adaptation for the increased resiliency of power distribution systems subjected to hurricanes

Cited by 5 publications

References 33 publications

Performance-Based Coastal Engineering Framework

Performance-Based Coastal Engineering Framework

Optimization of Condition-Based Maintenance of Wood Utility Pole Network Subjected to Hurricane Hazard and Climate Change

Eigenvector dimension-reduction method for reliability analysis of power systems under the time-dependent load uncertainty

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