Electric power distribution systems that link the bulk power grid (generation and transmission systems) to customers are the leading cause of power outages due to their vulnerability to extreme wind events, especially hurricanes. The strength of the wood poles that typically support the distribution lines also deteriorate over time. The vulnerability of the poles is expected to increase due to the potential impact of climate change on both hurricane hazard and wood decay rate. As such, an effective maintenance planning method is required for the vast number of poles supporting distribution lines. This paper presents a framework to optimize the maintenance of a network of wood utility poles. Corrective replacement due to failure caused by hurricanes and preventive replacement due to excessive decay are considered. The objective is to find the optimal inspection interval for the preventive replacement to minimize the long-term maintenance cost. To solve the optimization problem, the decay of the poles is modeled as a stationary gamma process. The impact of climate change on the rate of pole failure and replacement is also investigated. Two locations are considered as case studies: Miami, Florida, and New York City, New York. The period from 2010 to 2099 is considered for the study. The results of the case study show that the optimal inspection/replacement cycle determined using the developed framework results in lower total maintenance costs compared to current typical utility practice. Based on the inspection and replacement costs used in the study, the results show that adopting a periodic preventive maintenance policy decreases the failure rate of the poles but increases the total maintenance cost. However, only the cost of replacing the poles is considered here. Other considerations, such as indirect costs due to power outages and the impact of pole failure on system reliability, can render the adoption of a preventive replacement policy cost-effective. The results also show that climate change can increase the total maintenance cost. Based on current typical utility maintenance practice, climate change can increase the total maintenance cost by up to 8% in Miami and 6% in NYC, depending on the emission scenario considered.
Communities in US coastal regions are threatened by hurricanes more than ever, and the effect of climate change may further aggravate the risk and corresponding losses in the future. This paper investigates the potential impact of changes in sea surface temperature (SST) on hurricane wind and storm surge hazards for the Atlantic and Gulf coast regions. An empirical track model that uses SST as an input is used to account for the effect of temperature variations on hurricane intensity. The storm surge hazard is modeled using Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH). Four projected future climate conditions based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emission scenarios are adopted to capture the effect of changes in SST on future hurricane intensity. The impacts of changes in hurricane frequency and sea-level rise are also considered. The results show that the projected increase in the average SST will lead to more intense hurricanes by the end of the twenty-first century. An increase in wind speed for all the studied sites with varying degrees is observed. The most significant increase in wind speeds is observed on the northeast Atlantic coast, with some areas showing an increase of more than 60% for high return period winds under the most extreme future climate scenario. This is because a higher increase in SST is observed in such areas, which will lead to more intense hurricanes in the future. An increasing trend is also observed for the storm surge for all the study sites in the future. However, the largest increase in predicted surge heights is mainly seen in the Gulf Coast locations.
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