Reliability Analysis of Structures by Iterative Improved Ensemble of Surrogate Method

Abstract

Surrogate models have been widely adopted for reliability analysis. e common approach is to construct a series of surrogates based on a training set and then pick out the best one with the highest accuracy as an approximation of the time-consuming limit state function. However, the traditional method increases the risk of adopting an inappropriate model and does not take full advantage of the data devoted to constructing different surrogates. Furthermore, obtaining more samples is very expensive and sometimes even impossible. erefore, to save the cost of constructing the surrogate and improve the prediction accuracy, an ensemble strategy is proposed in this paper for efficiently analyzing the structural reliability. e values of the weights are obtained by a recursive process and the leave-one-out technique, in which the values are updated in each iteration until a given prediction accuracy is achieved. Besides, a learning function is used to guide the selection of the next sampling candidate. Because the learning function utilizes the uncertainty estimator of the surrogate to guide the design of experiments (DoE), to accurately calculate the uncertainty estimator of the ensemble of surrogates, the concept of weighted mean square error is proposed. After the high-quality ensemble of surrogates of the limit state function is available, the Monte Carlo method is employed to calculate the failure probabilities. e proposed method is evaluated by three analytic problems and one engineering problem. e results show that the proposed ensemble of surrogates has better prediction accuracy and robustness than the stand-alone surrogates and the existing ensemble techniques.

Optimal Section Design of Korean Agricultural Greenhouse Response to Climate Change Based on Monte Carlo Simulation

“…This requires verification based on the external load and characteristics of each member. Reliability analysis shows reliable simulation results with already widely validated numerical analysis models [50][51][52][53]. However,…”

“…This requires verification based on the external load and characteristics of each member. Reliability analysis shows reliable simulation results with already widely validated numerical analysis models [50][51][52][53]. However, since the probabilistic values for external loads are not clearly established, a quantitative basis for determining them is needed by continuing to conduct structural experiments to review them.…”

Research on Vibration Characteristics of Mountain Orchard Transporter and Optimization of Trailer

“…The hammering method was selected for the experimental modal analysis of the trailer, with force hammers providing impulse excitation. The excitation of the force hammer is mainly divided into single-point excitation and multi-point excitation [33,34]. Single-point excitation refers to taking excitation at one point on the member and measuring its response parameters; multi-point excitation refers to selecting at least two points on the member and taking excitation at the same time to measure the response parameters of all points.…”