Optimal Section Design of Korean Agricultural Greenhouse Response to Climate Change Based on Monte Carlo Simulation

Abstract

Rapid climate change has threatened the agricultural production infrastructure that was designed based on past weather conditions. A glass greenhouse structure is especially affected by the changing wind speed and snow. Therefore, it is necessary to update the standards for a greenhouse design to secure the appropriate safe standards for wind speed and snow depth according to the structure shape, cross-sectional shape, and size of the greenhouse. This study develops a structural optimal cross-section model to cope with climate change such as abnormal weather for Korean glass greenhouses. We programmed a model to calculate the probability of greenhouse failure and developed a sectional setting model for optimal failure probability by applying the concepts of a Monte Carlo simulation technique and simplex method. The main results showed that it is possible to reduce the probability of failure by about 80%, and the materials could be reduced by about 18% with the optimal cross-section setting of this study. Therefore, we propose that, with this cross-section, it is possible to build an economical greenhouse that still ensures safety against failure.