Relative sea-level change in Connecticut (USA) during the last 2200 yrs

Kemp, Andrew C.; Hawkes, Andrea D.; Donnelly, Jeffrey P.; Vane, Christopher H.; Horton, Benjamin P.; Hill, Thomas; Anisfeld, Shimon C.; Parnell, Andrew C.; Cahill, Niamh

doi:10.1016/j.epsl.2015.07.034

Cited by 72 publications

(71 citation statements)

References 55 publications

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“…The authors estimate rates of sea level rise during the 20 th century of ~1.9 mm/year for Connecticut, New Jersey and North Carolina respectively, and ~1.5 mm/year for Florida, each of these above the longer-term background rates at each site. From change point analysis of their salt marsh time series, Kemp et al (2015) conclude that the '20 th century' sea level rise commenced around 1865-1873 similarly in Connecticut, New Jersey, North Carolina and Florida, a conclusion consistent with the later analysis of Kopp et al (2016). Gaussian Process (EIV-IGP) model fits to each individual salt marsh record as shown in Figure 8 of Kemp et al (2015), using the technique described by Cahill et al (2015).…”

Section: Msl-difference Over Longer Timescales Than the Tide Gauge Resupporting

confidence: 72%

“…From change point analysis of their salt marsh time series, Kemp et al (2015) conclude that the '20 th century' sea level rise commenced around 1865-1873 similarly in Connecticut, New Jersey, North Carolina and Florida, a conclusion consistent with the later analysis of Kopp et al (2016). Gaussian Process (EIV-IGP) model fits to each individual salt marsh record as shown in Figure 8 of Kemp et al (2015), using the technique described by Cahill et al (2015). Since salt marsh sample ages are uncertain, the EIV approach is necessary to also account for error in the explanatory variable (sample age), which is assumed to be accurately known in standard regression methods; the Figure 8 of Kemp et al (2015) (reproduced here in Figure 7f).…”

Section: Msl-difference Over Longer Timescales Than the Tide Gauge Resupporting

confidence: 72%

“…In both (a) and (b), the inner and outer errors bars indicate the 68% and 95% credible intervals calculated by combining in quadrature the intervals for the two individual time series. The maximum MSL-difference at around 1500 in Figure 7(a) can be seen from Figure 8 of Kemp et al (2015) to be due to low MSL during several centuries around this time (relative to the background long term trend due to GIA) in the New Jersey record, with a much smaller corresponding signal in the Florida record. Similarly, the negative MSL-difference around 1000 is primarily due to high MSL values in New Jersey, Florida presenting a much flatter record overall.…”

Section: Msl-difference Over Longer Timescales Than the Tide Gauge Rementioning

confidence: 97%

“…Once each record has been detrended over its entire record length to remove the contribution to relative sea level change from vertical land movement (assuming a linear rate of movement which is reasonable for GIA over 2000 years), the four records demonstrate a similar recent history, with an increase in the rate of sea level rise during the second part of the 19 th century, accelerating until the rate reaches ~2-2.5 mm/year at present (Figure 8 of Kemp et al 2015). The authors estimate rates of sea level rise during the 20 th century of ~1.9 mm/year for Connecticut, New Jersey and North Carolina respectively, and ~1.5 mm/year for Florida, each of these above the longer-term background rates at each site.…”

Section: Msl-difference Over Longer Timescales Than the Tide Gauge Rementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Gaussian Process (EIV-IGP) model fits to each individual salt marsh record as shown in Figure 8 of Kemp et al (2015), using the technique described by Cahill et al (2015). Since salt marsh sample ages are uncertain, the EIV approach is necessary to also account for error in the explanatory variable (sample age), which is assumed to be accurately known in standard regression methods; the Figure 8 of Kemp et al (2015) (reproduced here in Figure 7f). In both (a) and (b), the inner and outer errors bars indicate the 68% and 95% credible intervals calculated by combining in quadrature the intervals for the two individual time series.…”

Section: Msl-difference Over Longer Timescales Than the Tide Gauge Rementioning

confidence: 99%

See 4 more Smart Citations

Variations in the difference between mean sea level measured either side of Cape Hatteras and their relation to the North Atlantic Oscillation

et al. 2016

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We consider the extent to which the difference in mean sea level (MSL) measured on the North American Atlantic coast either side of Cape Hatteras varies as a consequence of dynamical changes in the ocean caused by fluctuations in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). From analysis of tide gauge data, we know that changes in MSL-difference and NAO index are correlated on decadal to century timescales enabling a scale factor of MSL-difference change per unit change in NAO index to be estimated. Changes in trend in the NAO index have been small during the past few centuries (when measured using windows of order 60 to 120 years). Therefore, if the same scale factor applies through this period of time, the corresponding changes in trend in MSL-difference for the past few centuries should also have been small. It is suggested thereby that the sea level records for recent centuries obtained from salt marshes (adjusted for long-term vertical land movements) should have essentially the same NAO-driven trends south and north of Cape Hatteras, only differing due to contributions from other processes such as changes in the Meridional Overturning Circulation or 'geophysical fingerprints'. The salt marsh data evidently support this interpretation within their uncertainties for the past few centuries, and perhaps even for the past millennium.Recommendations are made on how greater insight might be obtained by acquiring more measurements and by improved modelling of the sea level response to wind along the shelf.

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Section: Msl-difference Over Longer Timescales Than the Tide Gauge Resupporting

confidence: 72%

Section: Msl-difference Over Longer Timescales Than the Tide Gauge Resupporting

confidence: 72%

Section: Msl-difference Over Longer Timescales Than the Tide Gauge Rementioning

confidence: 97%

Section: Msl-difference Over Longer Timescales Than the Tide Gauge Rementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Msl-difference Over Longer Timescales Than the Tide Gauge Rementioning

confidence: 99%

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Variations in the difference between mean sea level measured either side of Cape Hatteras and their relation to the North Atlantic Oscillation

et al. 2016

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Reconstructing late Holocene relative sea‐level changes at the Magdalen Islands (Gulf of St. Lawrence, Canada) using multi‐proxy analyses

Barnett

Bernatchez

Garneau

et al. 2017

J Quaternary Science

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Proxy records of late Holocene relative sea‐level changes are important for our understanding of mechanisms that drive contemporary sea‐level trends. In the Gulf of Saint Lawrence (eastern Canada), the Magdalen Islands currently experience higher than global average rates of relative sea‐level rise. This article presents original reconstruction data of sea‐level changes from the Magdalen Islands over the past few millennia collected from a variety of coastal deposits and proxy records including salt‐marsh foraminifera, testate amoebae and plant macrofossils. Reconstructed late Holocene relative sea‐level trends are between 1.3 and 2.0 mm a−1 for the past 2000 years. When combined with contemporaneous trends in tide‐gauge data from Cap‐aux‐Meules (Magdalen Islands), multi‐proxy data show acceleration in the rate of relative sea‐level rise to over 4 mm a−1 during the 20th century. This signal corresponds to similar inflexions also registered in salt marshes and tide‐gauge data along the east coast of North America.

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Reproducibility and variability of earthquake subsidence estimates from saltmarshes of a Cascadia estuary

Padgett

Engelhart

Kelsey

et al. 2022

J Quaternary Science

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We examine fossil foraminiferal assemblages from 20 sediment cores to assess sudden relative sealevel (RSL) changes across three mud-over-peat contacts at three salt marshes in northern Humboldt Bay, California (~44.8°N, −124.2°W). We use a validated foraminiferal-based Bayesian transfer function to evaluate the variability of subsidence stratigraphy at a range of 30-6000 m across an estuary. We use the consistency in RSL reconstructions to support estimates of coseismic subsidence from megathrust earthquakes. To assess the variability of subsidence estimates, we analyzed: nine examples of the 1700 CE earthquake (average of 0.64 ±0.14 m subsidence; range of 0.24 ± 0.27 to 1.00 ± 0.44 m), five examples of the ca. 875 cal a BP earthquake (average of 0.43 ±0.16 m; range of 0.41 ± 0.36 to 0.48 ± 0.39 m), and six examples of the ca. 1120 cal a BP earthquake (average of 0.70±0.18 m; range of 0.47 ± 0.36 to 0.80 ± 0.49 m). Our subsidence estimates suggest ~±0.3 m of within-site (intrasite) variability, which is consistent with previous research. We also identify inconsistencies between sites (intersite) at northern Humboldt Bay greater than one-sigma uncertainties, driven by variable foraminiferal assemblages in the mud overlying the 1700 CE subsidence contact. Therefore, we recommend at least two quantitative microfossil reconstructions across the same stratigraphic sequence from different marsh sites within an estuary to account for estimate variability and provide increased confidence in vertical coseismic deformation estimates. Our results have broad implications for quantitative, microfossil-based reconstructions of coseismic subsidence at temperate coastlines globally.

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Relative sea-level change in Connecticut (USA) during the last 2200 yrs

Cited by 72 publications

References 55 publications

Variations in the difference between mean sea level measured either side of Cape Hatteras and their relation to the North Atlantic Oscillation

Variations in the difference between mean sea level measured either side of Cape Hatteras and their relation to the North Atlantic Oscillation

Reconstructing late Holocene relative sea‐level changes at the Magdalen Islands (Gulf of St. Lawrence, Canada) using multi‐proxy analyses

Reproducibility and variability of earthquake subsidence estimates from saltmarshes of a Cascadia estuary

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