We assess the relationship between temperature and global sea-level (GSL) variability over the Common Era through a statistical metaanalysis of proxy relative sea-level reconstructions and tide-gauge data. GSL rose at 0.1 ± 0.1 mm/y (2σ) over 0–700 CE. A GSL fall of 0.2 ± 0.2 mm/y over 1000–1400 CE is associated with ∼0.2 °C global mean cooling. A significant GSL acceleration began in the 19th century and yielded a 20th century rise that is extremely likely (probability P≥0.95) faster than during any of the previous 27 centuries. A semiempirical model calibrated against the GSL reconstruction indicates that, in the absence of anthropogenic climate change, it is extremely likely (P=0.95) that 20th century GSL would have risen by less than 51% of the observed 13.8±1.5 cm. The new semiempirical model largely reconciles previous differences between semiempirical 21st century GSL projections and the process model-based projections summarized in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fifth Assessment Report.

We present new sea-level reconstructions for the past 2100 years based on salt-marsh sedimentary sequences from the US Atlantic coast. The data from North Carolina reveal four phases of persistent sea-level change after correction for glacial isostatic adjustment.Sea level was stable from at least BC 100 until AD 950. It then increased for 400 years at a rate of 0.6 mm/yr, followed by a further period of stable, or slightly falling, sea level that persisted until the late 19 th century. Since then, sea level has risen at an average rate of 2.1 mm/yr, representing the steepest, century-scale increase of the past two millennia.This rate was initiated between AD 1865 and 1892. Using an extended semi-empirical modeling approach, we show that these sea-level changes are consistent with global temperature for at least the past millennium.

We present new sea-level reconstructions for the past 2100 y based on salt-marsh sedimentary sequences from the US Atlantic coast. The data from North Carolina reveal four phases of persistent sea-level change after correction for glacial isostatic adjustment. Sea level was stable from at least BC 100 until AD 950. Sea level then increased for 400 y at a rate of 0.6 mm/y, followed by a further period of stable, or slightly falling, sea level that persisted until the late 19th century. Since then, sea level has risen at an average rate of 2.1 mm/y, representing the steepest century-scale increase of the past two millennia. This rate was initiated between AD 1865 and 1892. Using an extended semiempirical modeling approach, we show that these sea-level changes are consistent with global temperature for at least the past millennium.climate | ocean | late Holocene | salt marsh C limate and sea-level reconstructions encompassing the past 2,000 y provide a preanthropogenic context for understanding the nature and causes of current and future changes. Hemispheric and global mean temperature have been reconstructed using instrumental records supplemented with proxy data from natural climate archives (1, 2). This research has improved understanding of natural climate variability and suggests that modern warming is unprecedented in the past two millennia (1). In contrast, understanding of sea-level variability during this period is limited and the response to known climate deviations such as the Medieval Climate Anomaly, Little Ice Age, and 20th century warming is unknown. We reconstruct sea-level change over the past 2100 y using new salt-marsh proxy records and investigate the consistency of reconstructed sea level with global temperature using a semiempirical relationship that connects sea-level changes to mean surface temperature (3, 4). The new sea level proxy data constrain a multicentennial response term in the semiempirical model. Results and DiscussionSea-Level Data. Salt-marsh sediments and assemblages of foraminifera record former sea level because they are intrinsically linked to the frequency and duration of tidal inundation and keep pace with moderate rates of sea-level rise (5, 6). We developed transfer functions using a modern dataset of foraminifera (193 samples) from 10 salt marshes in North Carolina, USA (7). Transfer functions are empirically derived equations for quantitatively estimating past environmental conditions from paleontological data (8). The transfer functions were applied to foraminiferal assemblages preserved in 1 cm thick samples from two cores of salt-marsh sediment (Sand Point and Tump Point, North Carolina; Fig. 1) to estimate paleomarsh elevation (PME), which is the tidal elevation at which a sample formed with respect to its contemporary sea level (9). Unique vertical errors were calculated by the transfer functions for each PME estimate and were less than 0.1 m. Composite chronologies were developed using Accelerator Mass Spectrometry (AMS) 14 C (conventional, high-precision, and bo...

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Coseismic subsidence along the Cascadia subduction zone causes abrupt relative sea-level (RSL) rise that is recorded in coastal stratigraphy and foraminiferal assemblages. RSL reconstructions therefore provide insight into the magnitude, nature, and frequency of great earthquakes that can constrain deformation models and quantify the seismic risk faced by coastal populations. These reconstructions are commonly generated using transfer functions that are calibrated from counts of modern (surface) foraminifera and corresponding elevation measurements. We developed four transfer functions of increasing complexity to explore how and why the composition of the modern dataset and the choice of transfer-function type affects subsidence reconstructions. Application of these four models to stratigraphic contacts (mud abruptly overlying peat or soil) representing the A.D. 1700 Cascadia earthquake and a field experiment that simulated subsidence show that a Bayesian transfer function (BTF) calibrated using a large modern dataset (19 sites from California to Vancouver Island) and incorporating prior information from stratigraphic context produces systematically larger subsidence estimates than a weighted-averaging transfer function calibrated using a smaller modern dataset (8 sites in Oregon) that does not leverage stratigraphic context. This difference arises from ( 1) training set composition, (2) taxa-elevation relationships in the BTF that are not assumed to be unimodal, and(3) stratigraphic prior information that compensates for postdepositional, downward mixing of postearthquake foraminifera into pre-earthquake sediment, which biases reconstructions at some sites toward smaller subsidence. Our reconstructions support a heterogeneous rupture model for the A.D. 1700 earthquake, but indicate that slip estimates in patches from Alsea Bay to Netarts Bay (Oregon) and from Netarts Bay to Vancouver Island should be increased. Electronic Supplement:Table listing counts of foraminifera and sample elevations used to construct the West Coast modern training set.

18Relative sea-level changes during the last ~2500 years in New Jersey, USA were reconstructed to test if 19 late Holocene sea level was stable or included persistent and distinctive phases of variability. 20Foraminifera and bulk-sediment δ 13 C values were combined to reconstruct paleomarsh elevation with 21 decimeter precision from sequences of salt-marsh sediment at two sites using a multi-proxy approach. 22The history of sediment deposition was constrained by a composite chronology. An age-depth model 23 developed for each core enabled reconstruction of sea level with multi-decadal resolution. Following 24 correction for land-level change (1.4mm/yr), four successive and sustained (multi-centennial) sea-level 25 trends were objectively identified and quantified using error-in-variables change point analysis to account 26 for age and sea-level uncertainties. From at least 500BC to 250AD sea-level fell at 0.11mm/yr. The 27 second period saw sea-level rise at 0.62mm/yr from 250AD to 733AD. Between 733AD and 1850AD sea 28 level fell at 0.12mm/yr. The reconstructed rate of sea-level rise since ~1850AD was 3.1mm/yr and 29 represents the most rapid period of change for at least 2500 years. This trend began between 1830AD and 30 1873AD and its onset is synchronous with other locations on the U.S. Atlantic coast. Since this change 31 point, reconstructed sea-level rise is in agreement with regional tide-gauge records and exceeds the global 32 average estimate for the 20 th century. These positive and negative departures from background rates 33 demonstrate that the late Holocene sea level was not stable in New Jersey. 34 35

Using newly‐discovered archival measurements, we construct an instrumental record of water levels and storm tides in Boston (MA) since 1825. After ascertaining the 19th century datum and correcting for a 0–0.03 m bias in the modern tide‐gauge record, we show that local, decadally‐averaged relative sea level (RSL) rose by 0.28 ± 0.05 m since 1826, with an acceleration of 0.023 ± 0.009 mm/yr2. Tide range decreased by 5.5% between 1830 and 1910, due in large part to dredging and filling of Boston Harbor, and trended slightly upward thereafter. An evaluation of storm events since 1825 suggests that trends in flood risk are driven by RSL rise, with a small contribution by tidal trends. Sea‐level rise also interacts with the 18.6 year nodal cycle in tide amplitudes to produce decadal fluctuations in hazard. Conditional sampling of the 1825–2018 record shows that storm tides with a 0.01–0.5 annual probability (100 and 2 year events) are 0.1–0.2 m larger during periods with above‐average tidal amplitudes. Similarly, the once‐in‐25 year event during elevated tidal forcing becomes a once‐in‐100 year event during periods of reduced tides. A plurality of historic flood events—including floods in 1851, 1978, and 2018—occurred near the peak of the tidal nodal cycle. Projections to the year 2100 suggest that decadal fluctuations in tide characteristics will interact with relative sea‐level rise to produce a fluctuating hazard over time, with periods of relative stationarity (e.g., the 2020s) bracketed by relatively abrupt increases in flood hazard (the early 2030s).

We provide records of relative sea level since A.D. 1500 from two salt marshes in North Carolina to complement existing tide-gauge records and to determine when recent rates of accelerated sea-level rise commenced. Reconstructions were developed using foraminiferabased transfer functions and composite chronologies, which were validated against regional twentieth century tide-gauge records. The measured rate of relative sea-level rise in North Carolina during the twentieth century was 3.0-3.3 mm/a, consisting of a background rate of ~1 mm/a, plus an abrupt increase of 2.2 mm/a, which began between A.D. 1879 and 1915. This acceleration is broadly synchronous with other studies from the Atlantic coast. The magnitude of the acceleration at both sites is larger than at sites farther north along the U.S. and Canadian Atlantic coast and may be indicative of a latitudinal trend.