Relative age effect reversal on the junior-to-senior transition in world-class athletics

Brustio, Paolo Riccardo; Stival, Marina Morato; Boccia, Gennaro

doi:10.1080/02640414.2023.2245647

Cited by 2 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 34 publications

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“…These inverse effects can be explained by the “underdog hypothesis”, whereby relatively younger players face a greater challenge in comparison to their relatively older counterparts during early development. These experiences may enhance a higher degree of psychological resilience and toughness ( 40 ), as well as higher skill proficiency (i.e., social, technical, tactical skills) that allows relatively young players to overcome initial birthdate disadvantages and increase their chances of making senior level ( 35 , 41 ). However, it is important to remember these suggestions remain hypothetical and the exact mechanisms contributing to these trends have yet to be determined.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Career trajectories, transition rates, and birthdate distributions: the rocky road from youth to senior level in men's European football

Brustio,

McAuley,

Ungureanu

et al. 2024

Front. Sports Act. Living

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This study aimed to assess youth-to-senior transition rates, quantify the magnitude of relative age effect (RAEs), and evaluate how RAEs affect these transitions in 9,527 men's national football players of England, France, Germany, Italy, and Spain. Regardless of national team, only −15%, 25%, and 40% of U17, U19, and U21 players successfully transitioned to the senior team, respectively, whilst −14%–24% progressed to senior level without being selected during youth. Data suggested a skewed birthdate distribution favouring relatively older players at U17, U19, and U21 levels across all countries, whereas RAEs were also present in England, Italy, and Spain at senior level. Youth-to-senior transition rates were modulated by birthdate at U17 and U19, whereby Q4 players were −2 and 1.5 times more likely to successfully transition at senior level than Q1 players, respectively. Selection at youth international level does not guarantee selection at senior level, but does make it more likely. Moreover, relatively younger athletes are disadvantaged in youth categories, although are more likely to transition to senior level once they have entered the pathway.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Career trajectories, transition rates, and birthdate distributions: the rocky road from youth to senior level in men's European football

Brustio,

McAuley,

Ungureanu

et al. 2024

Front. Sports Act. Living

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“…Research conducted on birth advantages has investigated how relative age may impact athletes’ youth-to-senior transition [ 41 , 42 ]. Studies have demonstrated how, both in English and Italian soccer, selected later-born players have an increased likelihood of completing the transition [ 43 , 44 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Birth Advantages in Male Italian Soccer: How They Influence Players Youth Career and Their Future Career Status

Morganti,

Brustio,

Ruscello

et al. 2024

Sports

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Soccer organizations generally adopt deterministic models within their talent pathways. In this framework, early ability and results are emphasized, leading to selection biases, such as birth advantages (i.e., relative age effects and birthplace effects), which research has shown affect both early developmental experiences and continued sporting involvement. Accordingly, this study aimed to (a) provide further test of birth advantages in Italian youth soccer by exploring the birth quarter (BQ) and birthplace (BP) distribution of 1050 male Italian players born between 1999 and 2001 who competed in the national U17 championship throughout the 2015–16 season and (b) investigate how birth advantages influenced selected players’ future career status. Chi-square goodness-of-fit tests revealed early born players, and players born in North Italy were overrepresented at the youth level (p-values < 0.0001). Successive prospective analysis revealed only 18% of players developed into professional-level soccer players. Chi-square tests of independence indicated that players’ BP was associated with their future career status (p < 0.0001), whereas their BQ was not (p = 0.459). Odds ratios showed players born in North Italy were five times more likely to complete the youth-to-senior transition than those born in South Italy. These findings highlighted environmental factors influence Italian players’ early developmental experiences and their future career status.

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Relative age effect reversal on the junior-to-senior transition in world-class athletics

Cited by 2 publications

References 34 publications

Career trajectories, transition rates, and birthdate distributions: the rocky road from youth to senior level in men's European football

Career trajectories, transition rates, and birthdate distributions: the rocky road from youth to senior level in men's European football

Birth Advantages in Male Italian Soccer: How They Influence Players Youth Career and Their Future Career Status

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