Relationship between ENSO and winter rainfall over Southeast China and its decadal variability

Li, Chun; Ma, Hao

doi:10.1007/s00376-012-1248-z

Cited by 46 publications

(41 citation statements)

References 24 publications

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“…[16] In order to understand the 4-5 months predictable time scale, we calculate the autocorrelations of the Niño3.4 SST index to examine persistence of ENSO-like SST anomaly (Table 1) following . The persistence of the Niño3.4 SST anomaly is similar to the Niño3 SST anomaly [Li and Ma, 2012]. The autocorrelation-statistically significant, exceeding the 99% level-is highlighted.…”

Section: Predictability Of Yrlv Rainfall Based On Ensomentioning

confidence: 52%

“…The monthly 160 station rainfall is adopted from the data center of Chinese Meteorological Administration (CMA). This rainfall data set, from January 1951 to December 2012, has been used extensively [e.g., Lau and Weng , 2001; Li et al ., ; Li and Ma , , ]. The monthly SST data are taken from the National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) extended reconstructed SST (ERSST), provided by the NOAA‐Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (NOAA‐CIRES) Climate Diagnostics Center [ Smith and Reynolds , ].…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The NOAA ERSST (version 3) data have 2 Â 2 resolution and cover the period of 1854-2012. In addition, monthly Kaplan SST and Hadley Center Sea Ice and SST (HadISST) data are also used to examine the reliability of relationship between ENSO and the autumn YRLV rainfall, similar with Li and Ma [2012]. Kaplan Extended SST (version 2) data, taken from NOAA-Earth System Research Laboratory (NOAA-ESRL), have 5 Â 5 resolution, and cover the period of 1854-2012 [Kaplan et al, 1998].…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…[6] To identify the covariant relationship between rainfall and SST anomalies, singular value decomposition (SVD) analysis is employed following Li and Ma [2012] with a focus on boreal autumn instead of winter. It should be noted that autumn is defined as September-October (SO), not the traditional September-October-November (SON).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Impacts of ENSO on autumn rainfall over Yellow River loop valley in observation: Possible mechanism and stability

Zeng

2013

JGR Atmospheres

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[1] The Yellow River loop valley (YRLV) is one of major agricultural production zones in many Chinese dynasties. Predicting rainfall variability in the YRLV is important for the society and the economy. This study demonstrates impacts of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on autumn rainfall in the YRLV based on statistical analyses of instrumental rainfall in China and reanalyzed SST and atmospheric data. Results indicate that the autumn rainfall anomaly in the YRLV may be partially controlled by the ENSO-like sea surface temperature (SST) pattern. The YRLV rainfall is below normal (above normal) in the El Niño (La Niña) developing years. This impact is mediated by an atmospheric response to the ENSO-like SST anomaly forcing via a westward Rossby wave. Furthermore, Niño3.4 index may be used as a factor for autumn rainfall in the YRLV region with a lead of 4-5 months. However, the relationship between the autumn YRLV rainfall and ENSO does not persist and has gone through decadal weakening since the end of 1980s via a decadal response of atmospheric circulation to ENSO. The decadal change of the relationship between the autumn YRLV rainfall and ENSO may be modulated by climate decadal shifts.Citation: Li, C., and G. Zeng (2013), Impacts of ENSO on autumn rainfall over Yellow River loop valley in observation: Possible mechanism and stability,

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Section: Predictability Of Yrlv Rainfall Based On Ensomentioning

confidence: 52%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Impacts of ENSO on autumn rainfall over Yellow River loop valley in observation: Possible mechanism and stability

Zeng

2013

JGR Atmospheres

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“…ENSO often peaks in the boreal winter, which has been considered as the most important source of the seasonal prediction due to its global impact. On the inter‐annual timescale, the winter rainfall over SC was positive correlated with the ENSO events, presenting more‐than‐normal SC winter rainfall during the El Niño event (Tao and Zhang, ; Zhang and Sumi, ; Wu et al, ; Zhou et al, ; Zhou and Wu, ; Li and Ma, ). As to the intra‐seasonal timescale, the more‐than‐normal seasonal mean winter rainfall over SC is constituted of higher‐frequent heavy rainfall events, which have been attributed to the MJO in the tropics (Jeong et al, ; ; Donald et al, ; Liu and Yang, ; Yuan and Yang, ; He et al, ; Jia et al, ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Possible causes of the flooding over south China during the 2015/2016 winter

Guo

Zhu

Liu

2019

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Sequential heavy rainfall clusters and resultant severe winter flooding was observed over South China during the 2015/2016 super El Niño event. In the present, the intra‐seasonal oscillations (ISOs) related with heavy rainfall over East Asia from late autumn to early winter in 2015/2016 were investigated using the daily in situ rainfall records and the NCEP‐DOE Reanalysis data set. Results suggested that the successive heavy winter rainfall events in 2015/2016 were contributed by the ISOs with significant periods of 10–25 and 30–45 days. The wet phase of 10–25‐day ISO was jointly induced by the anomalous convergence of the low‐level water vapour associated with the tropical–subtropical interaction and the upper‐level divergence attributed to the eastwards propagating wavetrain. However in the wet phase of the 30–45‐day ISO, the anomalous upper‐level divergence was possibly caused by the weaker East Asian trough and the stronger barotropic westerly in subtropics. The 30–45‐day ISO can facilitate the eastwards propagation of the 10–25‐day ISO by providing a benefit upper‐level waveguide. Afterwards, the low‐level southwesterly surrounding the Tibetan Plateau gets enhanced to bring more moisture into South China where the winter flooding was serious in 2015/2016. In contrast, the more‐than‐normal winter rainfall was weaker in the super El Niño of 1997/1998 due to the lack of the 30–45‐day ISO. Therefore, the strongest winter rainfall anomaly over SC was ascribed to the superposition between the wet phases of 10–25 and 30–45‐day ISOs in 2015/2016.

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Decadal change in the relationship between East Asian spring circulation and ENSO: Is it modulated by Pacific Decadal Oscillation?

Wang

2018

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Using the NOAA-CIRES 20th century Reanalysis and the ERA-20C reanalysis, the decadal changes in the relationship between East Asian spring circulation (EASC) and ENSO over the past century are investigated. These two datasets consistently show that a decadal change occurred around 1972 for the late 20th century, which coincides with the shift of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) from the negative to the positive phase. While the interannual variability of EASC is closely related to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) during 1973-2000, it is weakly related to ENSO but seems to be dominated by midlatitude atmospheric variability during 1952-1972. However, the relationship between EASC and ENSO is inconsistent between the two reanalysis datasets in the first half of the 20th century, raising a question whether PDO does have a modulation on the ENSO-EASC relationship or it just occurred by chance in 1970s. The pre-industrial control (PIC) experiment of the coupled models from CMIP5 are analysed to address this question. In the long-term simulation of the coupled models under fixed external forcing, the relationship between ENSO and EASC does show substantial decadal oscillation, just as in the observation, but the strength of the ENSO-EASC relationship is not substantially in phase with PDO. Forced by observed sea surface temperature from 1950 to 2010, an atmospheric general circulation model corroborates that the EASC-ENSO relation is almost steady after removing the atmospheric internal variability regardless of the phase of PDO, but it is subject to strong decadal oscillation in the multiple ensemble members with the stochastic modulation of atmospheric internal dynamics. These modelling evidences support the null hypothesis that the relationship between EASC and ENSO is not modulated by PDO.

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Relationship between ENSO and winter rainfall over Southeast China and its decadal variability

Cited by 46 publications

References 24 publications

Impacts of ENSO on autumn rainfall over Yellow River loop valley in observation: Possible mechanism and stability

Impacts of ENSO on autumn rainfall over Yellow River loop valley in observation: Possible mechanism and stability

Possible causes of the flooding over south China during the 2015/2016 winter

Decadal change in the relationship between East Asian spring circulation and ENSO: Is it modulated by Pacific Decadal Oscillation?

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