Relating changes in agricultural practices to increasing dew points in extreme Chicago heat waves

Changnon, David; Sandstrom, M. A.; Schaffer, Charles

doi:10.3354/cr024243

Cited by 34 publications

(26 citation statements)

References 20 publications

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“…Because Wisconsin is adjacent to two of the Great Lakes, located in the vicinity of the Corn Belt where a high density of land area planted in corn and soybeans efficiently move water from the soil back to the atmosphere during July and August (Changnon et al, 2003), and impacted by the interaction of multiple air masses through the changing seasons (Bryson, 1966), it is possible that patterns of future climate change may be quite difficult to predict by Global Circulation Models (GCMs) based on the historical record of climate variation. Some of the spatial variability in the results are likely impacted by local climate drivers such as the proximity to Lake Michigan or Lake Superior, or from local land cover changes that have occurred near COOP stations which might have affected surface albedo and energy balance.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Patterns of Climate Change Across Wisconsin From 1950 to 2006

et al. 2010

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Trends in meteorological and ecological variables were calculated across the state of Wisconsin from 1950 to 2006 to quantify recent patterns of climate change. In summary, annual average nighttime low temperatures have increased by 0.6 to 2.2º C, whereas the annual average daytime high temperatures have warmed by 0.3 to 0.6º C. Annual average precipitation has increased by 50-100 mm in the central and southern portions of the state, about a 10-15% increase, while precipitation across the far northern portion of the state appears to have declined by 20-60 mm since 1950, with the most pronounced decrease occurring during summer. On a seasonal basis, warming temperatures are more pronounced during winter and springtime, and nighttime temperatures are warming faster than daytime high temperatures. Some cooling trends in daytime high temperatures were observed during late summer and fall, particularly in the northeast and far southwest portions of the state. We calculated that the length of the growing season has increased by 5 to 20 days, with the greatest change in the central and northern part of Wisconsin. The annual number of days each year with low temperatures less than 0º F (-17.8º C) has diminished substantially, while the number of days each year with highs greater than 90ºF (32.2º C) has remained relatively constant. A slight shift northward of the ecological "Tension Zone" was also documented. [

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Patterns of Climate Change Across Wisconsin From 1950 to 2006

et al. 2010

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“…Normally, this extreme phenomenon is not only associated with the values of meteorological variables -especially temperature-but also with the effects on ecosystems (Changnon et al, 2003;Khalio et al, 2005;Nogueira and Paixao, 2008). Lopez-Díaz (2004) studied the behavior of heat waves using only long temperature series obtained at several observatories in peninsular Spain, and highlighted the difficulties involved in determining their trend, including the need to use the threshold variable.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Definition and temporal evolution of the heat and cold waves over the Spanish Central Plateau from 1961 to 2010

Labajo¹,

Egido²,

Martín³

et al. 2014

Atmósfera

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RESUMENSe establece el comportamiento temporal de las frecuencias anuales de olas de calor y frío observadas entre 1961 y 2010 en la Meseta Central española y en las dos zonas que se pueden diferenciar en ella. A partir de los datos diarios de anomalías de temperatura se determinan las series de anomalías diarias de temperaturas máxima y mínima para las áreas de trabajo. Se obtienen los valores umbrales de dichas series de anomalías, determinados por los percentiles P 10 y P 90 . Se establece la existencia de ola de calor cuando se observan dos o más días consecutivos en los que las anomalías de temperatura máxima y de temperatura mínima superan, simultáneamente, los valores de los umbrales establecidos por el P 90 . Se identifican las olas de calor que han afectado a la Meseta Central española, y a las dos subzonas durante el periodo de estudio y se establecen sus frecuencias mensuales y anuales. Asimismo, considerando que existe una ola de frío cuando hay dos o más días consecutivos en que los valores de temperaturas máximas y mínimas diarias son inferiores, simultáneamente, a los umbrales establecidos por el P 10 , se identifican las olas de frío y se establecen sus frecuencias mensuales y anuales en el periodo de estudio. Los resultados indican que los meses con mayor número de olas de calor entre 1961 y 2010 son mayo (25 olas) y junio (23 olas). El análisis de tendencia de las series de frecuencias anuales obtenidas indica que existe una tendencia creciente de olas de calor a un nivel de confianza mayor del 99%. El modelo lineal establece que se ha producido un aumento en la frecuencia de olas de calor en la Meseta Central española del orden de 0.6 olas cada 10 años. En cuanto a las olas de frío, se detectan olas de frío todos los meses del año en número que oscila entre ocho y 16 olas. Los meses con menor número son abril (nueve), julio (ocho) y agosto (nueve), y los meses con mayor número son marzo, mayo, junio y octubre con 16 olas. Los años con mayor número de olas de frío son 1969, 1971 y 1977 con siete casos; en el resto de los años la frecuencia anual está comprendida entre uno y seis. El análisis de tendencia de la serie de frecuencias anuales indica que existe una tendencia decreciente de las olas de frío a un nivel de confianza del 99%. Si se considera un modelo lineal, en la Meseta Central española se ha producido, entre 1961 y 2010, una disminución de olas de frío del orden de 0.54 olas cada 10 años. ABSTRACTThe temporal behavior of the annual frequency of heat and cold waves observed between 1961 and 2010 is established for the Spanish Central Plateau and for the two sub-areas in it. The series of daily maximum and minimum temperature anomalies for the working areas were calculated from the daily data concerning temperature anomalies. The thresholds of these series of anomalies, determined by the P 10 and P 90 percentiles values, were obtained. Heat waves occur when there are two or more consecutive days on which the maximum and minimum temperature anomalies are simultaneously greater than the...

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“…The ubiquitous higher dewpoint temperatures occur during the hottest conditions, in agreement with findings for individual heat waves such as the July 1995 event in Chicago (Kunkel et al 1996;Livezey and Tinker 1996), indicating that higher humidity may particularly exacerbate heat stress during heat waves. This pattern in Chicago during the heat waves in a recent decade was found highly correlated to the anomalies of regional precipitation prior to the heat event as well as the change of agricultural practices (Changnon et al 2003). Interestingly, within each class a strong urban moisture deficit (relative to rural areas) occurs for the afternoon (Aqua-day) overpass, when strong afternoon convective activity is often present.…”

Section: A Spatial Analysis Of Urban Heat Patternsmentioning

confidence: 89%

Investigation of Urban Air Temperature and Humidity Patterns during Extreme Heat Conditions Using Satellite-Derived Data

Monaghan

Brunsell

2015

Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology

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Extreme heat is a leading cause of weather-related human mortality. The urban heat island (UHI) can magnify heat exposure in metropolitan areas. This study investigates the ability of a new MODIS-retrieved near-surface air temperature and humidity dataset to depict urban heat patterns over metropolitan Chicago, Illinois, during June-August 2003-13 under clear-sky conditions. A self-organizing mapping (SOM) technique is used to cluster air temperature data into six predominant patterns. The hottest heat patterns from the SOM analysis are compared with the 11-summer median conditions using the urban heat island curve (UHIC). The UHIC shows the relationship between air temperature (and dewpoint temperature) and urban land-use fraction. It is found that during these hottest events 1) the air temperature and dewpoint temperature over the study area increase most during nighttime, by at least 4 K relative to the median conditions; 2) the urban-rural temperature/humidity gradient is decreased as a result of larger temperature and humidity increases over the areas with greater vegetation fraction than over those with greater urban fraction; and 3) heat patterns grow more rapidly leading up to the events, followed by a slower return to normal conditions afterward. This research provides an alternate way to investigate the spatiotemporal characteristics of the UHI, using a satellite remote sensing perspective on air temperature and humidity. The technique has potential to be applied to cities globally and provides a climatological perspective on extreme heat that complements the many case studies of individual events.

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Relating changes in agricultural practices to increasing dew points in extreme Chicago heat waves

Cited by 34 publications

References 20 publications

Patterns of Climate Change Across Wisconsin From 1950 to 2006

Patterns of Climate Change Across Wisconsin From 1950 to 2006

Definition and temporal evolution of the heat and cold waves over the Spanish Central Plateau from 1961 to 2010

Investigation of Urban Air Temperature and Humidity Patterns during Extreme Heat Conditions Using Satellite-Derived Data

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