Regulatory control of vehicle and power plant emissions: how effective and at what cost?

Paltsev, Sergey; Karplus, Valerie J.; Chen, H. Henry; Karkatsouli, Ioanna; Reilly, John M.; Jacoby, Henry D.

doi:10.1080/14693062.2014.937386

Climate Policy

2014

DOI: 10.1080/14693062.2014.937386

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Regulatory control of vehicle and power plant emissions: how effective and at what cost?

Sergey Paltsev

Valerie J. Karplus

H. Henry Chen

et al.

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Cited by 7 publications

References 12 publications

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Energy scenarios: the value and limits of scenario analysis

Paltsev

2016

WIREs Energy & Environment

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A need for low‐carbon world has added a new challenging dimension for the long‐term energy scenarios development. In addition to the traditional factors like technological progress, demographic, economic, political, and institutional considerations, there is another aspect of the modern energy forecasts related to the coverage, timing, and stringency of policies to mitigate the greenhouse gas emissions and air pollutants. Modern tools for the energy scenario development provide a good basis for the estimates of the required changes in the energy system to achieve certain climate and environmental targets. While the current scenarios show that a move to a low‐carbon energy future requires a drastic change in energy investment and the resulting mix in energy technologies, the exact technology mix, paths to the needed mix, price, and cost projections should be treated with a great degree of caution. The scenarios do not provide exact predictions, but they can be used as a qualitative analysis of decision‐making risks associated with different pathways. If history is any guide, energy scenarios overestimate the extent to which the future will look like the recent past. As future costs and the resulting technology mixes are uncertain, a wise government policy is to target emissions reductions from any source, rather than focus on boosting certain kinds of low‐carbon energy. WIREs Energy Environ 2017, 6:e242. doi: 10.1002/wene.242 This article is categorized under: Energy and Climate > Economics and Policy Energy and Climate > Systems and Infrastructure Energy Policy and Planning > Economics and Policy

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Energy scenarios: the value and limits of scenario analysis

Paltsev

2016

WIREs Energy & Environment

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Reducing CO2 from cars in the European Union

et al. 2016

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The European Union (EU) recently adopted CO 2 emissions mandates for new passenger cars, requiring steady reductions to 95 gCO 2 /km in 2021. We use a multi-sector computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, which includes a private transportation sector with an empiricallybased parameterization of the relationship between income growth and demand for vehicle miles traveled. The model also includes representation of fleet turnover, and opportunities for fuel use and emissions abatement, including representation of electric vehicles. We analyze the impact of the mandates on oil demand, CO 2 emissions, and economic welfare, and compare the results to an emission trading scenario that achieves identical emissions reductions. We find that vehicle emission standards reduce CO 2 emissions from transportation by about 50 MtCO 2 and lower the oil expenditures by about €6 billion, but at a net added cost of €12 billion in 2020. Tightening CO 2 standards further after 2021 would cost the EU economy an additional €24-63 billion in 2025, compared with an emission trading system that achieves the same economy-wide CO 2 reduction. We offer a discussion of the design features for incorporating transport into the emission trading system.

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Long-term economic modeling for climate change assessment

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A growing concern for using large scale applied general equilibrium models to analyze energy and environmental policies has been whether these models produce reliable projections. Based on the latest MIT Economic Projection and Policy Analysis model we developed, this study aims to tackle this question in several ways, including enriching the representation of consumer preferences to generate changes in consumption pattern consistent to those observed in different stages of economic development, comparing results of historical simulations against actual data, and conducting sensitivity analyses of future projections to key parameters under various policy scenarios. We find: 1) as the economies grow, the empirically observed income elasticities of demand are better represented by our setting than by a pure Stone-Geary approach, 2) historical simulations in general perform better in developed regions than in developing regions, and 3) simulation results are more sensitive to GDP growth than energy and non-energy substitution elasticities and autonomous energy efficiency improvement.

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Regulatory control of vehicle and power plant emissions: how effective and at what cost?

Cited by 7 publications

References 12 publications

Energy scenarios: the value and limits of scenario analysis

Energy scenarios: the value and limits of scenario analysis

Reducing CO2 from cars in the European Union

Long-term economic modeling for climate change assessment

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