Regionally differentiated contribution of mountain glaciers and ice caps to future sea-level rise

Radić, Valentina; Hock, Regine

doi:10.1038/ngeo1052

Cited by 429 publications

(401 citation statements)

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“…In the next century, wastage of mountain glaciers and icecaps in response to anthropogenic climate change is expected to increase mean global sea levels by 0.051-0.124 m (Cazenave and Nerem, 2004;Raper and Braithwaite, 2006;Radić and Hock, 2011). In western North America, notable area and volume loss of glaciers (Larsen et al, 2007;Schiefer et al, 2007;Berthier et al, 2010;Bolch et al, 2010) and decreased late-summer flows in glacier-fed rivers (Stahl and Moore, 2006;Moore et al, 2009) have already been observed.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An approach to derive regional snow lines and glacier mass change from MODIS imagery, western North America

et al. 2013

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Abstract. We describe a method to calculate regional snow line elevations and annual equilibrium line altitudes (ELAs) from daily MODIS imagery (MOD02QKM) on large glaciers and icefields in western North America. An automated cluster analysis of the cloud-masked visible and near-infrared bands at 250 m resolution is used to delineate glacier facies (snow and ice) for ten glacierized regions between 2000-2011. For each region and season, the maximum observed value of the 20th percentile of snowcovered pixels (Z S(20) ) is used to define a regional ELA proxy (ELA est ). Our results indicate significant increases in the regional ELA proxy at two continental sites (Peyto Glacier and Gulkana Glacier) over the period of observation, though no statistically significant trends are identified at other sites. To evaluate the utility of regional ELA proxies derived from MOD02QKM imagery, we compare standard geodetic estimates of glacier mass change with estimates derived from historical mass balance gradients and observations of Z S(20) at three large icefields. Our approach yields estimates of mass change that more negative than traditional geodetic approaches, though MODIS-derived estimates are within the margins of error at all three sites. Both estimates of glacier mass change corroborate the continued mass loss of glaciers in western North America. Between 2000 and 2009, the geodetic change approach yields mean annual rates of surface elevation change for the Columbia, Lillooet, and Sittakanay icefields of −0.29 ± 0.05, −0.26 ± 0.05, and −0.63 ± 0.17 m a −1 , respectively. This study provides a new technique for glacier facies detection at daily timescales, and contributes to the development of regional estimates of glacier mass change, both of which are critical for studies of glacier contributions to streamflow and global sea level rise.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An approach to derive regional snow lines and glacier mass change from MODIS imagery, western North America

et al. 2013

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“…This is supported by theoretical analyses by Bahr et al (1997). Additionally, the required mass balance changes may be obtained by using seasonal sensitivity characteristics (Oerlemans and Reichert, 2000), by modelling the changes in mass balance profiles (Raper and Braithwaite, 2006), by applying a simplified mass balance model (Radić and Hock, 2011), or by using a relation between mass balance sensitivity and precipitation (e.g. Gregory and Oerlemans, 1998;Van de Wal and Wild, 2001).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 88%

“…However, none of these studies provide regional estimates of GIC volume changes. The latter is done in a recent study by Radić and Hock (2011), who find a global mean contribution of 0.124±0.037 m SLE. They use volume-arealength scaling to calculate regional glacier mass changes in response to climate model projections.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The figure also shows that the GIC in the larger size classes are still in the transition phase of adjusting to climate change. In the volume-area approach, GIC can only reach a new equilibrium by disappearing, unlike the methods of Raper and Braithwaite (2006) or Radić and Hock (2011), which can reach a new equilibrium over time. However, these methods require more information on the GICs hypsometry, which is not available for all glaciers.…”

Section: Scaling Factor Cmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Examples are volume-length scaling (Oerlemans et al, 2007;Leclercq et al, 2011), volume-area scaling (e.g. Bahr et al, 1997;Van de Wal and Wild, 2001), or volumearea-length scaling (Radić and Hock, 2011). These methods 674 A.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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An assessment of uncertainties in using volume-area modelling for computing the twenty-first century glacier contribution to sea-level change

Slangen

Wal

2011

The Cryosphere

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Abstract.A large part of present-day sea-level change is formed by the melt of glaciers and ice caps (GIC). This study focuses on the uncertainties in the calculation of the GIC contribution on a century timescale. The model used is based on volume-area scaling, combined with the mass balance sensitivity of the GIC. We assess different aspects that contribute to the uncertainty in the prediction of the contribution of GIC to future sea-level rise, such as (1) the volume-area scaling method (scaling factor), (2) the glacier data, (3) the climate models, and (4) the emission scenario. Additionally, a comparison of the model results to the 20th century GIC contribution is presented.We find that small variations in the scaling factor cause significant variations in the initial volume of the glaciers, but only limited variations in the glacier volume change. If two existing glacier inventories are tuned such that the initial volume is the same, the GIC sea-level contribution over 100 yr differs by 0.027 m or 18 %. It appears that the mass balance sensitivity is also important: variations of 20 % in the mass balance sensitivity have an impact of 17 % on the resulting sea-level projections. Another important factor is the choice of the climate model, as the GIC contribution to sea-level change largely depends on the temperature and precipitation taken from climate models. Connected to this is the choice of emission scenario, used to drive the climate models. Combining all the uncertainties examined in this study leads to a total uncertainty of 0.052 m or 35 % in the GIC contribution to global mean sea level. Reducing the variance in the climate models and improving the glacier inventories will sigCorrespondence to: A. B. A. Slangen (a.slangen@uu.nl) nificantly reduce the uncertainty in calculating the GIC contributions, and are therefore crucial actions to improve future sea-level projections.

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Changes in accumulation-area firn stratigraphy and meltwater flow during a period of climate warming: Devon Ice Cap, Nunavut, Canada

Gascon

Sharp

Burgess

et al. 2013

J. Geophys. Res. Earth Surf.

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[1] To document climate-driven changes in firn stratigraphy and their implications for meltwater flow patterns within firn on the Devon Ice Cap, Nunavut, during the 21st century summer warming, 500 MHz ground-penetrating radar (GPR) surveys were conducted along a 40 km transect in each spring from 2007 to 2012. These linear GPR surveys were supplemented by four 190 m by 100 m GPR grid surveys and 36 firn cores. Increased meltwater percolation and infiltration ice formation associated with high surface melt rates since 2005 modified the firn stratigraphy substantially over a horizontal distance of nearly 30 km. The most dramatic change involved the growth of a thick ice layer within the firn body. This layer grew primarily by upward accretion over an initial widespread ice layer formed during summer 2005. It thickened by between 0.5 and 4.5 m over the study period and filled much of the pore volume in the upper part of the firn, reducing vertical percolation of meltwater into deeper sections of the firn and thus the water storage potential of much of the firn reservoir. Heterogeneous percolation of surface meltwater promoted by rolling topography played an important role in meltwater infiltration and drainage, encouraging lateral flow at the tops of small hills and ponding and refreezing of meltwater beneath surface depressions.

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Regionally differentiated contribution of mountain glaciers and ice caps to future sea-level rise

Cited by 429 publications

References 16 publications

An approach to derive regional snow lines and glacier mass change from MODIS imagery, western North America

An approach to derive regional snow lines and glacier mass change from MODIS imagery, western North America

An assessment of uncertainties in using volume-area modelling for computing the twenty-first century glacier contribution to sea-level change

Changes in accumulation-area firn stratigraphy and meltwater flow during a period of climate warming: Devon Ice Cap, Nunavut, Canada

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