Regional Scale Analysis of Climate Extremes in an SRM Geoengineering Simulation, Part 1:Precipitation Extremes

Muthyala, Rohi; Bala, Govindasamy; Nalam, Aditya

doi:10.18520/cs/v114/i05/1024-1035

Cited by 11 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 43 publications

(81 reference statements)

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“…A few studies under the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (Kravitz et al, 2011) have analyzed the climate effects that result from simulating SRM in specific ways, including the effects on mean climate, extreme events, and hydrology (Curry et al, 2014;Kravitz et al, 2013;Muthyala et al, 2018aMuthyala et al, , 2018bTilmes et al, 2013). While SRM could potentially reduce global surface temperature it could also reduce global precipitation (Bala et al, 2008;Robock et al, 2008;Tilmes et al, 2013).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Africa's Climate Response to Solar Radiation Management With Stratospheric Aerosol

Pinto

Jack

Lennard

et al. 2020

Geophysical Research Letters

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Anthropogenic warming is projected to increase the magnitude and frequency of extreme events, whose impacts are already being felt in vulnerable regions in sub‐Saharan Africa. Solar radiation management (SRM) has been proposed as an interim measure to offset warming while emissions are reduced; however, the impact of stratospheric SRM on regional climate extremes have not yet been explored, particularly in the Paris agreement context. We investigate the potential impact of SRM on temperature and rainfall means and extremes over sub‐Saharan Africa using simulations from the Geoengineering Large Ensemble. We found SRM significantly reduces temperature means and extremes; however, the effect on precipitation is not as linear. The results should be interpreted with caution as they are particular to this approach of SRM and this modelling experiment.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Africa's Climate Response to Solar Radiation Management With Stratospheric Aerosol

Pinto

Jack

Lennard

et al. 2020

Geophysical Research Letters

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“…Three experiments have been performed: (i) a preindustrial control simulation '1XCO2', (ii) '2XCO2' with doubled atmospheric CO 2 concentration and (iii) 'Geo-Engg' with doubled atmospheric CO 2 concentration and the solar constant reduced. A detailed explanation of the model used and the experiments performed are provided in Part 1 of this study 11 .…”

Section: Model Experiments and Methodologymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This article is Part 2 of our two-part study on climate extremes under geoengineering. Part 1 discussed changes in precipitation extremes 11 and this Part 2 discusses changes in temperature extremes.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Regional Scale Analysis of Climate Extremes in an SRM Geoengineering Simulation, Part 2:Temperature Extremes

2018

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In this study, we examine the statistics of temperature extremes in a model simulation of solar radiation management (SRM) geoengineering. We consider both intensity and frequency-based extreme indices for temperature. The analysis is performed over both large-scale domains as well as regional scales (22 Giorgi land regions). We find that temperature extremes are substantially reduced in geoengineering simulation: the magnitude of change is much smaller than that occur in a simulation with elevated atmospheric CO 2 alone. Large increase (~10-20 K) in the lower tails (0.1 percentile) of T min and T max in the northern hemisphere extra-tropics that are simulated under doubling of CO 2 are reduced in geoengineering simulation, but significant increase (~4-7 K) persist over high-latitude land regions. Frequency of temperature extremes is largely offset over land regions in geoengineered climate. We infer that SRM schemes are likely to reduce temperature extremes and the associated impacts on a global scale. However, we note that a comprehensive assessment of moral, social, ethical, legal, technological, economic, political and governance issues is required for using SRM methods to counter the impacts of climate change.

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“…In contrast, when cirrus cloud thinning (CCT) is used to offset CO 2 ‐induced global warming, it usually increases global mean precipitation relative to climate conditions before CO 2 increased (Kristjánsson et al, 2015; Helene Muri et al, 2018, Duan et al, 2018). The induced cooling by radiation modification approaches would also prevent melting of sea ice and snow, and reduce extreme events that would occur otherwise under higher CO 2 levels (Curry et al, 2014; Irvine et al, 2019; Ji et al, 2018; Kravitz, Caldeira, et al, 2013; Moore et al, 2014; Muthyala et al, 2018a, 2018b). To determine the robustness of simulated climate responses to different radiation modification approaches, Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) has been conducted, in which over a dozen climate models simulate the climate responses to radiation modification under the same experimental protocol (Kravitz et al, 2011, 2015).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Model‐Based Investigation of Terrestrial Plant Carbon Uptake Response to Four Radiation Modification Approaches

et al. 2020

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A number of radiation modification approaches have been proposed to counteract anthropogenic warming by intentionally altering Earth's shortwave or longwave fluxes. While several previous studies have examined the climate effect of different radiation modification approaches, only a few have investigated the carbon cycle response. Our study examines the response of plant carbon uptake to four radiation modification approaches that are used to offset the global mean warming caused by a doubling of atmospheric CO 2 . Using the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Earth System Model, we performed simulations that represent four idealized radiation modification options: solar constant reduction, sulfate aerosol increase (SAI), marine cloud brightening, and cirrus cloud thinning (CCT). Relative to the high CO 2 state, all these approaches reduce gross primary production (GPP) and net primary production (NPP). In high latitudes, decrease in GPP is mainly due to the reduced plant growing season length, and in low latitudes, decrease in GPP is mainly caused by the enhanced nitrogen limitation due to surface cooling. The simulated GPP for sunlit leaves decreases for all approaches. Decrease in sunlit GPP is the largest for SAI which substantially decreases direct sunlight, and the smallest for CCT, which increases direct sunlight that reaches the land surface. GPP for shaded leaves increases in SAI associated with a substantial increase in surface diffuse sunlight, and decreases in all other cases. The combined effects of CO 2 increase and radiation modification result in increases in primary production, indicating the dominant role of the CO 2 fertilization effect on plant carbon uptake.Plain Language Summary A number of radiation modification approaches have been proposed to intentionally alter Earth's radiation balance to counteract anthropogenic warming. However, only a few studies have analyzed the potential impact of these approaches on the terrestrial plant carbon cycle. Here, we simulate four idealized radiation modification approaches, which include direct reduction of incoming solar radiation, increase in stratospheric sulfate aerosols concentration, enhancement of marine low cloud albedo, and decrease in high-level cirrus cloud cover, and analyze changes in plant photosynthesis and respiration. The first three approaches cool the earth by reducing incoming solar radiation, and the last approach allows more outgoing thermal radiation. These approaches are designed to offset the global mean warming caused by doubled atmospheric CO 2 . Compared to the high CO 2 world, all approaches will limit plant growth due to induced surface cooling in high latitudes and will lead to reduced nitrogen supply in low latitudes, leading to an overall reduction in the plant carbon uptake over land. Different approaches also produce different changes in surface direct and diffuse sunlight, which has important implications for plant photosynthesis. Relative to the unperturbed climate, the combined effects of enhanced CO...

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Regional Scale Analysis of Climate Extremes in an SRM Geoengineering Simulation, Part 1:Precipitation Extremes

Cited by 11 publications

References 43 publications

Africa's Climate Response to Solar Radiation Management With Stratospheric Aerosol

Africa's Climate Response to Solar Radiation Management With Stratospheric Aerosol

Regional Scale Analysis of Climate Extremes in an SRM Geoengineering Simulation, Part 2:Temperature Extremes

A Model‐Based Investigation of Terrestrial Plant Carbon Uptake Response to Four Radiation Modification Approaches

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