Regional Prediction of Coal and Gas Outburst Under Uncertain Conditions Based on the Spatial Distribution of Risk Index

Zhang, Guorui; Wang, Enyuan; Ou, Jinping; Li, Zhonghui

doi:10.1007/s11053-022-10119-7

Cited by 11 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 58 publications

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“…The rate and capacity of gas release in coal seams can be used to examine the emission and transfer of coal seam gas, and play a predictive role in gas outburst. − It is a general belief that when the initial velocity of gas release tends to be higher, the coal seam is to more likely to have outburst Figure indicates that Δ p falls with the growth of water content, and its rate declines and to be flat.…”

Section: Results and Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Outburst prediction is required before coal seam mining so as to effectively prohibit the outburst . In China, predictions usually include indicators such as drill cuttings weight index ( S ), drill cuttings gas desorption index ( K 1 ) and (Δ h 2 ), initial velocity of gas diffusion (Δ p ), Protodyakonov’s coefficient, and gas pressure. − Coal moisture is a key element affecting the important value of the outburst prediction parameters and outburst risk level. It has been confirmed that as the water of coal adds, the risk level of outburst will decrease, and the relative outburst intensity will also decline. ,− This is due to the fact that coal is more able to take in water molecules than methane molecules is, so water injection in coal seams can effectively prevent outburst. , The coal seam wetting by moisture can alter the mechanical features of coal, soften the coal body, and greatly decrease the permeability of coal seam.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Experimental Study on Coal and Gas Outburst Risk under Different Water Content Rates in Strong Outburst Coal Seams

Hu,

Shi,

Yue

et al. 2023

ACS Omega

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To investigate the alleviation potency of coal seam water infusion on coal and gas outburst, this paper focuses on the Qidong coal mine outburst coal seam, where outburst accidents have occurred many times, and obtains the impact of water content on outburst prediction parameters by studying the features of outburst parameters and gas desorption law under different water content rates. How water content affects outburst was also researched through the use of a self-made outburst simulation test system, and the relationship between water content and outburst intensity and critical gas pressure was studied. It can be concluded that with the rise of water content, the initial velocity of gas diffusion, the gas desorption index of drilling cuttings, and the adsorption constant a decrease, but the firmness coefficient (f) increase, and these indicators are exponentially related to the water content. Meanwhile, as the water content raises, the outburst pressure threshold increases, the outburst intensity gradually decreases, and the less likely outburst occurs. Under 0.5 MPa pressure, as the water content arose from 2.02 to 5.14%, the outburst intensity was significantly weakened, while no outburst occurred as the water content reached to 10.25%. Fitting analysis of the influence curve of outburst parameters and comparing the vital values of outburst prediction indexes finally determined that the water content rate of 5.14% could be used as a key index for water injection measures for coal and gas outburst prevention coal seam in Qidong coal mine no. 9. This research offers a guiding significance for the outburst prevention measures of water infusion in outburst coal seams and gives a feasible scheme for the safe mining of outburst coal mines.

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Section: Results and Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Experimental Study on Coal and Gas Outburst Risk under Different Water Content Rates in Strong Outburst Coal Seams

Hu,

Shi,

Yue

et al. 2023

ACS Omega

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“…A gas disaster is one of the most serious disasters in the coal mining process. Gas explosions, coal and gas outbursts, and other gas disasters will not only cause serious loss of life and property but also seriously affect mine safety production [ 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 ]. On 27 November 2014, a major gas explosion accident occurred in Songlin Coal Mine in Guizhou Province of China, resulting in 11 deaths and 8 injuries.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Combined Prediction Model of Gas Concentration Based on Indicators Dynamic Optimization and Bi-LSTMs

Peng

Song

Qiu

et al. 2023

Sensors

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In order to accurately predict the gas concentration, find out the gas abnormal emission in advance, and take effective measures to reduce the gas concentration in time, this paper analyzes multivariate monitoring data and proposes a new dynamic combined prediction method of gas concentration. Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient is applied for the dynamic optimization of prediction indicators. The time series and spatial topology features of the optimized indicators are extracted and input into the combined prediction model of gas concentration based on indicators dynamic optimization and Bi-LSTMs (Bi-directional Long Short-term Memory), which can predict the gas concentration for the next 30 min. The results show that the other gas concentration, temperature, and humidity indicators are strongly correlated with the gas concentration to be predicted, and Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient is up to 0.92 at most. The average R2 of predicted value and real value is 0.965, and the average prediction efficiency R for gas abnormal or normal emission is 79.9%. Compared with the other models, the proposed dynamic optimized indicators combined model is more accurate, and the missing alarm of gas abnormal emission is significantly alleviated, which greatly improves the early alarming accuracy. It can assist the safety monitoring personnel in decision making and has certain significance to improve the safety production efficiency of coal mines.

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“…Methane adsorbed in tectonic coal seams, where the coal possesses a soil-like structure, is always challenging to be extracted, especially in the high-stress area. Most coal and gas outburst accidents occurred at tectonic coal seams in recent years. , It is still important to study the mechanism of high seepage resistance in high-stress tectonic coal seams. , …”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Most coal and gas outburst accidents occurred at tectonic coal seams in recent years. 22,23 It is still important to study the mechanism of high seepage resistance in high-stress tectonic coal seams. 24,25 The size distribution of seepage pores changes with the stress, resulting in the variation of coal permeability with the stress.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Stress Sensitivity Analysis of Seepage Pores in Coal Briquettes Based on Compressed Exhaust and Pressure-Transient Tests

et al. 2023

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Seepage pores are the main space for methane transport in the coal seam. To further investigate variation laws of seepage pores with stress, this study established a new method based on the compressed exhaust and pressure-transient tests to characterize the seepage pore size distribution under different effective stress conditions. The reconstituted coal briquette and nonabsorbent helium were adopted as the experimental samples. The results showed that the deformation of coal mass mainly originates from seepage pores. With the increase of confining stress, the volume reduction of seepage pores presents a logarithmic growth. The initial seepage porosity of the tectonic coal specimen, i.e., the seepage porosity when effective stress is zero, was estimated to be 5.28%, accounting for 36.24% of the total porosity obtained by helium saturation. When effective stress is in the range of 13–48 MPa, the size of seepage pores generally ranges from 0.1 to 1.0 μm. The volume of seepage pores with sizes ranging from 0.1 to 0.5 μm always accounts for more than 80% of the volume of total seepage pores, and this proportion is not affected by effective stress. The inverse proportional coefficient between the threshold pressure gradient of helium and seepage pore diameter was finally determined to be 0.55 ± 0.19 mPa.

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Regional Prediction of Coal and Gas Outburst Under Uncertain Conditions Based on the Spatial Distribution of Risk Index

Cited by 11 publications

References 58 publications

Experimental Study on Coal and Gas Outburst Risk under Different Water Content Rates in Strong Outburst Coal Seams

Experimental Study on Coal and Gas Outburst Risk under Different Water Content Rates in Strong Outburst Coal Seams

Combined Prediction Model of Gas Concentration Based on Indicators Dynamic Optimization and Bi-LSTMs

Stress Sensitivity Analysis of Seepage Pores in Coal Briquettes Based on Compressed Exhaust and Pressure-Transient Tests

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