Regional Government Revenue Forecasting: Risk Factors of Investment Financing

Abstract

Accurate revenue prediction is a key factor for the reliable determination of the investment part of entire regional and local budgets, particularly during economic downturns and fiscal uncertainty. An unexpected decline in revenue requires the reduction in capital expenditures and forces the regional government to find additional sources to close the budget gaps. Current studies indicate that budget forecasts often underpredict revenue and use the available information inefficiently. In this article, the authors examine chosen methods of forecasting regional government revenue. In addition to classical forecasting models based on time series and causal models, an original structural forecasting procedure was proposed, which is effective especially in case of data delay. The reliability of applied methods was assessed using data from the Polish area of Zachodniopomorskie over the period 2000–2018. The found evidence supported results that were obtained by many other researchers, which indicated that less comprehensive methods of forecasting can provide reasonably accurate estimates.

Research on Revenue Forecasting Model of Automobile Manufacturing Enterprises Combining Public Opinion Data and Financial Data: A Case Study of Chinese Automobile Manufacturing Enterprises

“…First of all, the CNN model is established, this experiment uses the Keras module in the Tensorflow framework to establish the model. Subject to the limitations of the sample size and the number of features, the convolutional kernel used in this section of the experiment is (1,3). The padding parameter is set to "same", so as to ensure that the edge data will not be lost.…”

“…Scholars have now done some research in the four areas of the current research state, including revenue forecasting, sales volume forecasting, forecasting studies for the automobile industry, and time series data forecasting methods. In the area of business revenue forecasting, existing studies by scholars are mainly limited to the macro level such as local revenue [1,2]. In terms of sales volume forecasting, scholars' studies tend to be less specific to a particular industry [3,4].…”