Regional Evacuation Modeling: A State of the Art Reviewing

Southworth, Frank

doi:10.2172/814579

Cited by 131 publications

(84 citation statements)

References 29 publications

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“…Such tools provide a means of estimating evacuation times, developing traffic management and control strategies, and identifying evacuation routes (Rathi & Solanki 1993;Chang 2003;Moriarty et al 2007). Southworth (1991) has recommended several informational requirements for realistically simulating traffic flow during emergency conditions:…”

Section: Using a Traffic Modelling Package To Estimate Livestock Evacmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling livestock evacuation following a volcanic eruption: An example from Taranaki volcano, New Zealand

Wilson¹,

Dantas

Cole

2009

New Zealand Journal of Agricultural Research

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Livestock evacuation from farms affected by volcanic ashfall during or following a moderate to large volcanic eruption of Taranaki volcano would pose serious logistical challenges for emergency organisations. The volcanic hazards present during the eruption (such as volcanic ashfall) have the potential to significantly disrupt farming and transport operations in widespread areas both near to and far from the volcano. This paper presents a simplistic model that estimates the time and resources required to evacuate dairy cows from a large eruption from Taranaki volcano in New Zealand. Whilst intended to highlight the scale of time, money and logistics required for a large livestock evacuation, the model also provides a first step towards a model which can be run during periods of volcanic crisis to aid decision making. The model estimates that for a total evacuation of cows from dairy farms impacted by 100 mm of ashfall 208 000 cows would need to be evacuated and it would take at least 43 600 man-hours and cost >NZ$2,000,000. It would take 264 livestock truck and trailer units to evacuate this number of cows in 7 days, or 88 units in 21 days. It is therefore recommended that largescale livestock evacuation and relocation should not be considered in future volcanic crisis planning, due to the large logistical requirements a large livestock evacuation would require in terms of time, livestock evacuation transport units, and lack of capacity of A08004; Online publication date 4 February 2009 Received 5 January 2008 accepted 5 October 2008 farms in surrounding regions to support the massive influx of additional livestock.

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Section: Using a Traffic Modelling Package To Estimate Livestock Evacmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling livestock evacuation following a volcanic eruption: An example from Taranaki volcano, New Zealand

Wilson¹,

Dantas

Cole

2009

New Zealand Journal of Agricultural Research

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“…Quantitative evacuation studies can aid in estimating the time required to evacuate an area (Southworth, 1990). OREMS or the Oak Ridge Evacuation Modeling System has been developed for use in CSEPP and is available as a stand-alone application or as a component of FEMIS.…”

Section: Evacuationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Planning for protective action decision making: evacuate or shelter-in-place

Sorensen

Shumpert

Vogt

2004

Journal of Hazardous Materials

102

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“…These factors include weather conditions during the time of the evacuation, the size of the vulnerable population and the capacity of road networks (Southworth 1991;Dow & Cutter 2002;Sorensen et al 2002). Of particular importance to this research is the capacity of road networks to facilitate evacuation.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Incorporating evacuation potential into place vulnerability analysis

Yorke

Zhan

et al. 2013

Geomatics, Natural Hazards and Risk

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The purpose of this research is to illustrate a three-component operationalization of the Hazards-of-Place Model (HPM) by integrating urban infrastructure (using the capacity of road networks to facilitate evacuation as an example) to describe place vulnerability. This approach is informed by the HPM first articulated by Cutter (Vulnerability to environmental hazards. Prog Hum Geog. 20:529-39, 1996). The HPM is a conceptual framework through which place vulnerability is defined as a combination of social characteristics (expressed by selected socioeconomic demographics) and geophysical risk (expressed by probabilities of occurrence). Using a geographic information system (GIS), the study models the capacity of road networks to facilitate evacuation and used it as an example of urban infrastructure within which place vulnerability occurs. The output of the model was integrated with a geophysical risk layer and social vulnerability index layer as components for assessing the overall place vulnerability. The threecomponent approach to operationalizing the HPM provides a detailed and nuanced illustration of place-based vulnerability. As an applied tool, the threecomponent approach presents emergency planners with a new method of integrating diverse geographic data when illustrating spatial patterns of vulnerability to environmental hazards.

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Regional Evacuation Modeling: A State of the Art Reviewing

Cited by 131 publications

References 29 publications

Modelling livestock evacuation following a volcanic eruption: An example from Taranaki volcano, New Zealand

Modelling livestock evacuation following a volcanic eruption: An example from Taranaki volcano, New Zealand

Planning for protective action decision making: evacuate or shelter-in-place

Incorporating evacuation potential into place vulnerability analysis

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