There is growing concern about the risks to urban transportation with the advent of the peak in world oil production. Travel requires fuel energy, but current transportation planning does not deal with issues, policies or engineering designs for fuel constrained situations.This research presents a method to assess the risk to activities due to future fuel shortages as a function of urban form. The method uses probability of fuel short fall and impact due to loss of trips, including the new metric of essential, necessary and optional trips in the travel demand patterns. A case study explored four future growth options from the urban development strategy of Christchurch, New Zealand. Various oil shortage scenarios are developed and imposed on each 2041 urban form. All urban forms would lose and/or change trips according to essentiality and available options, but the risk to activities would be very different for different future cities. The high urban density case would have the lowest risks to participation in activities, while sprawled urban forms would have the highest risks in all simulated scenarios. This risk assessment method is being considered for identifying unacceptable growth patterns and mitigation measure as part of the local long range planning efforts in Christchurch.

Human and livestock evacuation during volcanic crises is an essential component of volcanic risk management. This study investigates the evacuation of human and livestock populations from areas impacted by ashfall from the 1991 Hudson eruption, Patagonia. The eruption was one of the largest in the 20 th century resulting in significant impacts on rural communities in affected areas, including the evacuation of people and livestock. In the short-term (<3 months), evacuation of people from farms and rural towns was driven primarily by ashfall and ash storm impacts on public health and essential services. Severe impacts on livestock and the inability to restore vegetation growth following pasture burial, also meant pastoral farming became unsustainable in the short term. This resulted in evacuation of farms for usually <1, but up to 4 years following the ashfall and subsequent intense ash-storms. In areas of very heavy ashfall (>1 m) or where agricultural systems were stressed (from drought and long-term low commodity prices) many farms were abandoned, resulting in permanent migration of the farm population. Farms and farmers under pressure from marginal economic returns were the least likely to cope with the 'shock' of the ashfall. The financial capacity of farmers was important in their resilience and ability to return once conditions improved, although emotional attachment to the land sometime outweighed financial considerations. Evacuation of livestock in areas affected by ash falls was undertaken by many farmers, but it was not very successful or economically justifiable. Access for livestock trucks to the impacted area was difficult due to a poor road network, ashfall and snow induced blockage, and remobilised ash inhibiting visibility. The lack of reliable records of livestock populations inhibited evacuation and efforts to supply supplementary feed to the remaining livestock. The very poor condition of livestock prior to the eruption and burial of feed following the eruption often made evacuation uneconomic as well as reducing livestock resilience to cope with the eruption and transport impacts. The lack of capacity within the local livestock market and lack of available grazing land for the influx of transported livestock were also key failings of the evacuation effort.

This paper presents a critical review and analysis of issues in implementing electronic data and information sharing frameworks for organisations involved in response activities during disaster. An implementation focused approach is used to understand end-user needs and develop tools that meet their operational requirements. A case study of New Zealand roading organisations examines how information is currently shared both within and between organisations to support crisis decision-making, and the potential benefits and implications of enhanced data and information sharing frameworks. Preliminary results show that considerable performance gains in response activities during disasters can be achieved provided technology is designed to work with and enhance existing operating structures.

Geographic Information Systems (GIS) provide a range of techniques which allow ready access to data, and the opportunity to overlay graphical location-based information for ease of interpretation. They can be used to solve complex planning and management problems. All phases of emergency management (reduction, readiness, response and recovery) can benefit from GIS, including applications related to transportation systems, a critical element in managing effective lifelines in an emergency. This is particularly true immediately before and during a volcanic eruption. The potential for volcanic activity in New Zealand is high, with 10 volcanoes or volcanic centres (Auckland, Bay of Islands, Haroharo, Mayor Island, Ruapehu, Taranaki, Tarawera, Taupo, Tongariro (including Ngauruhoe) and White Island) recognised as active or potentially active. In addition there are many active and potentially active volcanoes along the Kermadec Island chain. There is a great deal of background information on all of these volcanoes, and GIS is currently being used for some aspects of monitoring (e.g. ERS and Envisat radar interferometry for observing deformation prior to eruptions). If an eruption is considered imminent, evacuation may be necessary, and hence transportation systems must be evaluated. Scenarios have been developed for many centres (e.g. Taranaki/Egmont and Bay of Plenty volcanoes), but so far the use of GIS in planning for evacuation is limited. This paper looks at the use of GIS, indicates how it is being used in emergency management, and suggests how it can be used in evacuation planning.

Livestock evacuation from farms affected by volcanic ashfall during or following a moderate to large volcanic eruption of Taranaki volcano would pose serious logistical challenges for emergency organisations. The volcanic hazards present during the eruption (such as volcanic ashfall) have the potential to significantly disrupt farming and transport operations in widespread areas both near to and far from the volcano. This paper presents a simplistic model that estimates the time and resources required to evacuate dairy cows from a large eruption from Taranaki volcano in New Zealand. Whilst intended to highlight the scale of time, money and logistics required for a large livestock evacuation, the model also provides a first step towards a model which can be run during periods of volcanic crisis to aid decision making. The model estimates that for a total evacuation of cows from dairy farms impacted by 100 mm of ashfall 208 000 cows would need to be evacuated and it would take at least 43 600 man-hours and cost >NZ$2,000,000. It would take 264 livestock truck and trailer units to evacuate this number of cows in 7 days, or 88 units in 21 days. It is therefore recommended that largescale livestock evacuation and relocation should not be considered in future volcanic crisis planning, due to the large logistical requirements a large livestock evacuation would require in terms of time, livestock evacuation transport units, and lack of capacity of A08004; Online publication date 4 February 2009 Received 5 January 2008 accepted 5 October 2008 farms in surrounding regions to support the massive influx of additional livestock.