Regional autocratic linkage and regime survival

Abstract

In this article, the effects of regional autocratic linkage on the survival of autocratic regimes are analysed. Scholars have suggested that regional factors shape regime survival through processes of diffusion. However, in most accounts, diffusion is simply derived from characteristics of the region, such as the number or proportion of regional autocracies. In contrast, it is argued here that it is the actual linkages between countries that must be examined. Regional political, economic and social ties between autocratic regimes create domestic and external stakes in the regime, counterweigh democratisation pressure and facilitate autocratic learning. The study employs the average volume of trade, migration and diplomatic exchanges between autocratic regimes within a region as proxies for regional autocratic linkage, and asserts that regional autocratic linkage is on the rise. Applying Cox survival models on a dataset of regional autocratic linkage and regime survival between 1946 and 2009, it is found that regional autocratic linkage significantly reduces the likelihood of autocratic regime breakdown. These effects hold when the proportion of autocratic regimes within a region is controlled for, suggesting that one must look beyond the characteristics of the countries within a region and focus on the ties and linkages between them.

How oil autocracies learn to stop worrying: Central Eurasia in 2008 global financial crisis

“…Foreign counterparts have extended their support during crises through economic aid, military assistance, or diplomatic intervention (Yom and Gause 2012). Autocratic stability can benefit from regional support by other countries, including through autocratic linkages (Brownlee 2017;Schmotz and Tansey 2018). Conversely, the fall of the Pahlavi regime in Iran is partly attributed to the withdrawal of support from its strongest ally, the United States (Snyder 1998).…”

Economic development: How does it influence the survival of different types of autocracy?

“…Girod et al (2018) examine how the income sources of autocratic regimes influence their survival, while Knutsen and Rasmussen (2017) illustrate how the type of welfare state and social assistance programmes autocracies provide to citizens affect overall satisfaction with the regime, which, in turn, influences the stability of these regimes. Finally, Schmotz and Tansey (2018) look at the importance of regional and international linkages autocrats foster to solidify their power.…”

Γεω-Οικονομικές Και Γεω-Στρατηγικές Δυναμικές

“…Οι μελέτες γύρω από το συγκεκριμένο πολιτικό φαινόμενο έχουν καταλήξει σε κάποιες θεωρητικές καταγραφές χαρακτηριστικών που εντοπίζουμε κατ' αρχήν στις κατά ιστορική περίσταση περιφερειακές δυνάμεις. Για παράδειγμα, σύμφωνα με το European Consortium for Political Research (ECPR), σύμφυτο χαρακτηριστικό της περιφερειακής δύναμης είναι η ηγεμονική επιρροή με όρους οικονομικούς και στρατιωτικούς επί μίας γεωγραφικά προσδιορισμένης περιοχής, της οποίας οι λαοί αποδέχονται ή έστω ανέχονται την εν λόγω επιρροή (Schmotz & Tansey, 2015).…”