Economic development: How does it influence the survival of different types of autocracy?

Abstract

Modernization theory is one of the most influential theories in political science. However, to date, studies testing the impact of modernization on political regimes have almost completely focused on democracies. We aim at broadening the discussion to autocracies and ask the following research question: What impact has economic development on the survival of different types of autocracy? Using data covering 1946 to 2016, we ascertain – mainly through logistic regression analysis – that the level of economic development affects not only the endurance of democracies but also that of various types of autocracy. In more detail, we find that economic development prolongs the survival of ideocracies and personalist autocracies. The effect of economic modernization on military dictatorships, monarchies and electoral autocracies is very limited. In contrast, one party autocracies are the only regime type whose survival chances (moderately) decrease with modernization.

Domestic terrorism and leader survival, 1970–2014

“…This is not only the case in advanced democracies but also in many other countries across the world including those in East-Central Europe (Pacek, 1994), Latin America (Remmer, 1991), and developing regions (Gelineau, 2013). Regarding political survival, many recent studies provide direct evidence that economic growth significantly affects incumbent leadership (Marinov, 2005; Burke, 2012; Park, 2017; Park and Bali, 2017; Stockemer and Kailitz, 2020). The findings reveal that incumbent leaders are more likely to retain their position when the economy is booming.…”

“…For example, recent time-series cross-national investigations from the economic modernization literature examine how economic development affects autocratic leaders and their regimes. They show that a fast-growing economy significantly reinforces autocratic leadership and increases its durability (Kennedy, 2010; Burke, 2012; Miller, 2012; Treisman, 2015; Park, 2017; Stockemer and Kailitz, 2020; Choi and Park, 2021). These studies together cover quite extensive periods of time, from the 1810s to the 2010s.…”

Digital Dictators: How Different Types of Authoritarian Regimes Use Cyber Attacks to Legitimize Their Rule

“…the military and police) creating further distance between themselves and the population, thereby increasing the longevity of the regime. 291 Further, and as covered in previous chapters, we also know that personalist regimes tend to focus on the qualities and attributes of the ruler, and on perpetuating and preserving the notion that the ruler possesses an extraordinary personality and abilities, and that they have been chosen 'from above' to fulfil a certain mission. Often, as in the case of North Korea, personalist autocrats also suggests they have obtained traditional authority through hereditary succession.…”