Regional and Remote Influence on the Sea Ice in the Kara Sea

Abstract

This article examines the relationship between interannual changes in the sea ice extent and thickness in the Kara Sea with climate change in the region and with sea surface temperature in the tropical North Atlantic. The data from observations at meteorological stations, ERA5 reanalysis, and data on the sea ice from the AARI website for 1979–2021 were used. The growth of ice in winter is most influenced by air temperature and downward long-wave radiation. In summer, interannual changes in sea ice extent are closely related to air temperature. The remote influence of the sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropics of the North Atlantic on the summer (July–September) sea ice in the Kara Sea is discovered 33–35 months later. A significant correlation between climate and sea ice anomalies can serve as the basis for predicting up to four years ahead.

Monitoring climate change in the marine Arctic

“…Еще более очевидна связь зимней температуры и ледовитости в сентябре при сопоставлении с суммой градусо-дней мороза (СГДМ) за октябрь-апрель: в СЛО коэффициент корреляции СГДМ и ледовитости в сентябре равен -0,87, в морях СМП --0,80. Причина этого «парадокса» кроется в зависимости между СГДМ и толщиной [19,20] или объемом льда [11], при уменьшении которых летнее сокращение ледяного покрова растет. На рис.…”