Regime shifts in North Sea and Baltic Sea: A comparison

Dippner, Joachim W.; Möller, Caroline; Hänninen, Jari

doi:10.1016/j.jmarsys.2012.07.001

Cited by 32 publications

(31 citation statements)

References 64 publications

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“…Some scenarios forecast up to +30–40% increase in river flow [26]. Our long-term data analyses show that salinity is decreasing in the northern Baltic proper, and this result is supported by previous studies [21], [27]. In addition to an increased freshwater influence, another important factor is the decreasing inflow of salt water to the Baltic Sea via the Danish straits.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 88%

“…In addition to an increased freshwater influence, another important factor is the decreasing inflow of salt water to the Baltic Sea via the Danish straits. The inflows have become increasingly rare and their volume smaller, which partly can be explained by the Northern Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index that has been more positive than negative during the recent years [27]. Salinity is the main factor governing Baltic biodiversity [28] and its continuous decrease may have serious consequences for the plankton community composition.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Climate Change and Eutrophication Induced Shifts in Northern Summer Plankton Communities

et al. 2013

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Marine ecosystems are undergoing substantial changes due to human-induced pressures. Analysis of long-term data series is a valuable tool for understanding naturally and anthropogenically induced changes in plankton communities. In the present study, seasonal monitoring data were collected in three sub-basins of the northern Baltic Sea between 1979 and 2011 and statistically analysed for trends and interactions between surface water hydrography, inorganic nutrient concentrations and phyto- and zooplankton community composition. The most conspicuous hydrographic change was a significant increase in late summer surface water temperatures over the study period. In addition, salinity decreased and dissolved inorganic nutrient concentrations increased in some basins. Based on redundancy analysis (RDA), warming was the key environmental factor explaining the observed changes in plankton communities: the general increase in total phytoplankton biomass, Cyanophyceae, Prymnesiophyceae and Chrysophyceae, and decrease in Cryptophyceae throughout the study area, as well as increase in rotifers and decrease in total zooplankton, cladoceran and copepod abundances in some basins. We conclude that the plankton communities in the Baltic Sea have shifted towards a food web structure with smaller sized organisms, leading to decreased energy available for grazing zooplankton and planktivorous fish. The shift is most probably due to complex interactions between warming, eutrophication and increased top-down pressure due to overexploitation of resources, and the resulting trophic cascades.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 88%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Change and Eutrophication Induced Shifts in Northern Summer Plankton Communities

et al. 2013

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“…The regime means for each variable are computed and the differences between the climate regimes are plotted in a polar plot with respect to the long-term climatic means and the ±1 STD. According to Dippner et al (2012), a RS is defined as a change in absolute STD larger than 0.5.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Several different biological RS have been documented in the southern North Sea (Reid et al, 2001;Edwards et al, 2002;Beaugrand, 2004;Alheit et al, 2005;Schlüter et al, 2008;Dippner et al, 2010Dippner et al, , 2012Kröncke et al, 2013). Three prominent events occurred in the last century: the Russell Cycle in the English Channel in the 1920s, the so-called Gadoid outburst in the North Sea in the 1960s, and the "Great Salinity Anomaly" in 1977Anomaly" in /1978.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Loss of persistence of the North Atlantic Oscillation and its biological implication

2014

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“…In marine ecosystems of the Baltic Sea a regime shift was observed in the late 1980s. Here, the phytoplankton biomass increased, the composition of phyto-and zooplankton communities changed conspicuously and the growing season was extended (Alheit et al, 2005;Möllmann et al, 2009;Dippner et al, 2012).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trends and regime shifts in climatic conditions and river runoff in Estonia during 1951–2015

et al. 2017

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Abstract. Time series of monthly, seasonal and annual mean air temperature, precipitation, snow cover duration and specific runoff of rivers in Estonia are analysed for detecting of trends and regime shifts during 1951-2015. Trend analysis is realised using the Mann-Kendall test and regime shifts are detected with the Rodionov test (sequential t-test analysis of regime shifts). The results from Estonia are related to trends and regime shifts in time series of indices of large-scale atmospheric circulation. Annual mean air temperature has significantly increased at all 12 stations by 0.3-0.4 K decade −1 . The warming trend was detected in all seasons but with the higher magnitude in spring and winter. Snow cover duration has decreased in Estonia by 3-4 days decade −1 . Changes in precipitation are not clear and uniform due to their very high spatial and temporal variability. The most significant increase in precipitation was observed during the cold half-year, from November to March and also in June. A time series of specific runoff measured at 21 stations had significant seasonal changes during the study period. Winter values have increased by 0.4-0.9 L s −1 km −2 decade −1 , while stronger changes are typical for western Estonia and weaker changes for eastern Estonia. At the same time, specific runoff in April and May have notably decreased indicating the shift of the runoff maximum to the earlier time, i.e. from April to March. Air temperature, precipitation, snow cover duration and specific runoff of rivers are highly correlated in winter determined by the large-scale atmospheric circulation. Correlation coefficients between the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) indices reflecting the intensity of westerlies, and the studied variables were 0.5-0.8. The main result of the analysis of regime shifts was the detection of coherent shifts for air temperature, snow cover duration and specific runoff in the late 1980s, mostly since the winter of 1988/1989, which are, in turn, synchronous with the shifts in winter circulation. For example, runoff abruptly increased in January, February and March but decreased in April. Regime shifts in annual specific runoff correspond to the alternation of wet and dry periods. A dry period started in 1964 or 1963, a wet period in 1978 and the next dry period at the beginning of the 21st century.

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Regime shifts in North Sea and Baltic Sea: A comparison

Cited by 32 publications

References 64 publications

Climate Change and Eutrophication Induced Shifts in Northern Summer Plankton Communities

Climate Change and Eutrophication Induced Shifts in Northern Summer Plankton Communities

Loss of persistence of the North Atlantic Oscillation and its biological implication

Trends and regime shifts in climatic conditions and river runoff in Estonia during 1951–2015

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