Refining the Global Spatial Limits of Dengue Virus Transmission by Evidence-Based Consensus

Abstract

BackgroundDengue is a growing problem both in its geographical spread and in its intensity, and yet current global distribution remains highly uncertain. Challenges in diagnosis and diagnostic methods as well as highly variable national health systems mean no single data source can reliably estimate the distribution of this disease. As such, there is a lack of agreement on national dengue status among international health organisations. Here we bring together all available information on dengue occurrence using a novel approach to produce an evidence consensus map of the disease range that highlights nations with an uncertain dengue status.Methods/Principal FindingsA baseline methodology was used to assess a range of evidence for each country. In regions where dengue status was uncertain, additional evidence types were included to either clarify dengue status or confirm that it is unknown at this time. An algorithm was developed that assesses evidence quality and consistency, giving each country an evidence consensus score. Using this approach, we were able to generate a contemporary global map of national-level dengue status that assigns a relative measure of certainty and identifies gaps in the available evidence.ConclusionThe map produced here provides a list of 128 countries for which there is good evidence of dengue occurrence, including 36 countries that have previously been classified as dengue-free by the World Health Organization and/or the US Centers for Disease Control. It also identifies disease surveillance needs, which we list in full. The disease extents and limits determined here using evidence consensus, marks the beginning of a five-year study to advance the mapping of dengue virus transmission and disease risk. Completion of this first step has allowed us to produce a preliminary estimate of population at risk with an upper bound of 3.97 billion people. This figure will be refined in future work.

Declining malaria, rising of dengue and Zika virus: insights for mosquito vector control

“…A recent estimate indicates 390 million dengue infections per year (95 % credible interval 284-528 million), of which 96 million (67-136 million) manifest clinically (with any severity of disease) (Bhatt et al 2013). Another study, of the prevalence of dengue, estimates that 3900 million people, in 128 countries, are at risk of infection with dengue viruses (Becker et al 2012;Brady et al 2012;Mehlhorn 2012Mehlhorn , 2016.…”

Comportamiento de la mortalidad por dengue en Colombia entre 1985 y 2012

“…En ese mismo año, fue el responsable de la pérdida de 825.000 (344.000 a 1'412.000) años de vida ajustados por discapacidad (AVAD), es decir, 12 (5 a 20) AVAD por cada 100.000 habitantes (8). Se ha establecido que 3.970 millones de personas en 128 países están en riesgo de infectarse con el virus del dengue (9).…”

Análisis exploratorio de ondículas de los patrones de estacionalidad del dengue en Colombia

“…El dengue afecta a comunidades urbanas y periurbanas de 128 países tropicales y subtropicales, donde 3.970 millones de personas están en riesgo de contraer la infección (1). Para el 2010, se estimaba que anualmente ocurrían entre 284 y 528 millones de casos de dengue clásico en el mundo, y la región de las Américas ocupaba el tercer lugar en cuanto al número de casos de dengue clínicamente evidentes, después de Asia y África (2).…”