Reducing livestock snow disaster risk in the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau due to warming and socioeconomic development

Ye, Tao; Liu, Weihang; Chen, Shuo; Chen, Deliang; Shi, Peijun; Wang, Aihui; Li, Yijia

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.151869

Cited by 12 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 54 publications

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“…The western part of the Himalayas is the second highest risk zone, while the risks in the southeastern edge of the Qaidam Basin are relatively lower. These findings are in agreement with previous research results [5,10,14,53,54]. Apart from the direct impact of local climatic conditions [55], factors such as atmospheric circulation are also pertinent to the incidence of snow disasters in the TP.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 92%

Snow Disaster Hazard Assessment on the Tibetan Plateau Based on Copula Function

Xu,

Huang,

Mou

et al. 2023

Sustainability

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In the context of global climate change, the Tibetan Plateau is particularly susceptible to meteorological disasters, including snow disasters. This study utilized daily temperature and precipitation data from 44 meteorological stations on the Tibetan Plateau spanning from 1960 to 2018 to construct a snow event dataset. Optimal marginal distribution and the copula function were chosen to calculate the joint return period and joint probability, which effectively assess the hazard of snow disasters in the region. Additionally, the study analyzed the comprehensive risk of snow disasters under various return periods by integrating social and economic data. The results indicate the following: (1) Based on the five different Archimedean copula functions, the joint return period of an error rate of each station was calculated to be less than 36%, which is significantly lower than the recurrence interval of univariate analysis; (2) High-hazard areas are predominantly concentrated in the northwest region of the Tanggula Mountains and the eastern foothills of the Bayankara Mountains. As the return period increases, the spatial distribution of snow disaster hazard probability shifts gradually from “double-core” to continuous distribution; and (3) the northwestern Karakorum Mountains and Bayankara Mountains are two distinct high-risk areas for snow disasters. The range of high-risk areas in the region expands with an increase in the return period.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 92%

Snow Disaster Hazard Assessment on the Tibetan Plateau Based on Copula Function

Xu,

Huang,

Mou

et al. 2023

Sustainability

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“…However, snow disasters, as one of the natural disasters that most greatly affects animal husbandry on the QTP, exert remarkable influences on all aspects of society, the economy, and people's livelihood. Therefore, snow disasters need to be comprehensively studied from the perspective of risk assessment, in addition to the existing studies which discussed the influences of snow disasters on livestock in typical regions of the QTP [22,23]. Meanwhile, researchers have used human well-being to characterize the material and spiritual satisfaction of residents in recent years.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk Assessment of Snow Disasters for Animal Husbandry on the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau and Influences of Snow Disasters on the Well-Being of Farmers and Pastoralists

Zou²,

Zhang

et al. 2022

Remote Sensing

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In the context of global warming, meteorological disasters occur more frequently in various regions which exert increasing influences on human life. Snow disasters are some of the natural disasters that most seriously affect the development of husbandry on the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau (QTP), so it is necessary to explore their spatio-temporal variations and perform comprehensive risk assessment. Based on the daily snow depth data set in China, obtained by inversion of satellite remote sensing data, the spatio-temporal variation characteristics of snow disasters on the QTP from 1980 to 2019 were studied. The regional difference in the comprehensive risks of snow disasters for the husbandry on the QTP was evaluated from four perspectives, i.e., the risk of hazard factors, sensitivity of hazard-inducing environments, vulnerability of hazard-affected bodies, and disaster prevention and mitigation capacity. The farmer and pastoralist well-being (FPWB) index in five typical regions was constructed to discuss the possible influences of snow disasters on the FPWB since the 21st century. Results show that, in the last 40 years, the frequency, duration, average snow depth, and grade of snow disasters on the QTP all exhibited significant interannual and interdecadal variabilities, and they also displayed a declining long-term trend. The comprehensive risk of snow disasters for the husbandry on the QTP is low in the north while high in the south. The high-risk zone accounts for 1.54% of the total and is mainly located in Kashgar City in the north-western end of the QTP; the sub-high-risk and medium-risk zones are mainly found in the south of the plateau and are distributed in a tripole pattern, separately covering 15.96% and 16.32% of the total area of the plateau; the north of the plateau mainly belongs to low-risk and sub-low-risk zones, which separately account for 43.06% and 23.12% of the total area of the plateau. Since the beginning of the 21st century, the FPWB in five typical regions, namely, Kashgar (I), Shigatse (II), Nagqu (III), Qamdo (IV), and Yushu (V), has been increasing, while the risk of snow disasters has gradually decreased. Every 1% decrease in the risk of snow disasters corresponded to 0.186%, 0.768%, 0.378%, 0.109%, and 0.03% increases in the FPWB index in the five regions. Snow disasters affect FPWB mainly by directly or indirectly damaging material resources (livestock inventories and meat production) and social and financial resources.

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“…The conservation gap analysis found that more potentially suitable habitats will occur in the conservation gap in the northern part of the SLLMs under future climate scenarios ( Figure 3 and Figure 4 , GAP-1), while those in the central part will not change much ( Figure 3 and Figure 4 , GAP-2/3) in the grazing core area with many traditional summer pastures. The reduction in snow and ice disasters may promote more livestock breeding in summer pastures [ 99 ], which could threaten black-necked cranes. Climate change causes migratory birds to advance their arrival and departure times in spring [ 100 ].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Distribution of Breeding Population and Predicting Future Habitat under Climate Change of Black-Necked Crane (Grus nigricollis Przevalski, 1876) in Shaluli Mountains

Zhou²,

Bai

et al. 2022

Animals

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Climate change is affecting biodiversity by altering the geographical distribution range of species, and this effect is amplified in climate-sensitive areas. Studying the geographic distribution of flagship species in response to climate change is important for the long-term conservation of species and the maintenance of regional biodiversity. Therefore, we collected field survey records from 2016 to 2020 and conducted field surveys of black-necked cranes in the Shaluli Mountains (SLLMs) in May–June and August–October 2021; 103 breeding records were acquired totally, and the geographical distribution range under the current and four future climate scenarios was modeled with the MaxEnt model to predict the impact of climate change on its distribution and habitat quality. The results showed that 152 black-necked cranes were surveyed in seven counties of SLLMs in total; the estimated number of black-necked cranes in the entire SLLMs was about 200. The currently suitable habitat area is 27,122 km2, mainly distributed in gentle meadows and wetland habitats along the lake where the Annual Mean Temperature is −1 °C and the Mean Diurnal Range (16 °C) and Precipitation Seasonality (105) are comparatively large. Furthermore, the breeding range would expand to varying degrees under future climate scenarios and showed a migration trend toward the northwest and higher elevation. Besides, as time goes by, the habitat for black-necked cranes in SLLMs would become more homogeneous and more suitable. The conservation effectiveness of the existing reserve network would keep stable with climate change, although there are large conservation gaps between protected areas, and these gaps will gradually expand over time. Overall, this study provides a preliminary understanding of the population and distribution and predicts the future distribution of black-necked cranes in the SLLMs. It also demonstrates the importance of SLLMs for protecting the central population of black-necked cranes and maintaining regional biodiversity. Therefore, we recommend long-term monitoring and conservation of the black-necked crane population and wetland resources in the region.

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Reducing livestock snow disaster risk in the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau due to warming and socioeconomic development

Cited by 12 publications

References 54 publications

Snow Disaster Hazard Assessment on the Tibetan Plateau Based on Copula Function

Snow Disaster Hazard Assessment on the Tibetan Plateau Based on Copula Function

Risk Assessment of Snow Disasters for Animal Husbandry on the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau and Influences of Snow Disasters on the Well-Being of Farmers and Pastoralists

Distribution of Breeding Population and Predicting Future Habitat under Climate Change of Black-Necked Crane (Grus nigricollis Przevalski, 1876) in Shaluli Mountains

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