Distribution of Breeding Population and Predicting Future Habitat under Climate Change of Black-Necked Crane (Grus nigricollis Przevalski, 1876) in Shaluli Mountains

Abstract

Climate change is affecting biodiversity by altering the geographical distribution range of species, and this effect is amplified in climate-sensitive areas. Studying the geographic distribution of flagship species in response to climate change is important for the long-term conservation of species and the maintenance of regional biodiversity. Therefore, we collected field survey records from 2016 to 2020 and conducted field surveys of black-necked cranes in the Shaluli Mountains (SLLMs) in May–June and August–October 2021; 103 breeding records were acquired totally, and the geographical distribution range under the current and four future climate scenarios was modeled with the MaxEnt model to predict the impact of climate change on its distribution and habitat quality. The results showed that 152 black-necked cranes were surveyed in seven counties of SLLMs in total; the estimated number of black-necked cranes in the entire SLLMs was about 200. The currently suitable habitat area is 27,122 km2, mainly distributed in gentle meadows and wetland habitats along the lake where the Annual Mean Temperature is −1 °C and the Mean Diurnal Range (16 °C) and Precipitation Seasonality (105) are comparatively large. Furthermore, the breeding range would expand to varying degrees under future climate scenarios and showed a migration trend toward the northwest and higher elevation. Besides, as time goes by, the habitat for black-necked cranes in SLLMs would become more homogeneous and more suitable. The conservation effectiveness of the existing reserve network would keep stable with climate change, although there are large conservation gaps between protected areas, and these gaps will gradually expand over time. Overall, this study provides a preliminary understanding of the population and distribution and predicts the future distribution of black-necked cranes in the SLLMs. It also demonstrates the importance of SLLMs for protecting the central population of black-necked cranes and maintaining regional biodiversity. Therefore, we recommend long-term monitoring and conservation of the black-necked crane population and wetland resources in the region.

Changes in the landscape patterns of Black‐necked Crane habitat and its correlation with their individual population numbers during the past 40 years in China

“…Although the conservation of Black‐necked cranes should focus on cultivated landscapes, the wetland provides security and isolation from human disturbance (Li et al, 2022 ) and are an important basis for the survival of the Black‐necked cranes and other waterbirds. For example, in Indian mosaic landscapes with both agricultural components and natural wetlands, many waterbird species prefer natural wetlands (Sundar, 2004 , 2006 ) and even avoid paddy fields (Maeda, 2001 ).…”

“…It is important to use remote sensing techniques to show how available habitat types have changed over time. In recent decades, the land‐use structure and landscape pattern of the plateau wetlands in China changed due to natural factors and human economic activities (Dong et al, 2020 ; Zhao et al, 2020 ), leading to the fragmentation of the habitats of the Black‐necked Crane ( Grus nigricollis ) and the reduction in suitable habitat areas (Li et al, 2022 ; Ru et al, 2019 ). In addition to limiting the movement, dispersal, and exchange of species, habitat fragmentation accelerates the extinction rate of endangered species and increases the loss of species diversity (Haddad et al, 2015 ; Newbold et al, 2015 ; Wilson et al, 2016 ).…”

Comparative analysis of the intestinal microbiota of black−necked cranes (Grus nigricollis) in different wintering areas

“…As a flagship species and environmental indicator, crane contributes significantly to preserving the biodiversity of plateau ecosystems ( Hou et al., 2021 ). The primary research areas are population size, distribution, habitat selection, and crane conservation ( Kuang et al., 2010 ; Yang and Zhang, 2014 ; Li et al., 2022 ). However, little is understood about the fecal microbiota of cranes.…”