Reducing China’s road transport sector CO2 emissions to 2050: Technologies, costs and decomposition analysis

Gambhir, Ajay; Tse, Lawrence K. C.; Tong, Danlu; Martinez-Botas, Ricardo

doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2015.01.018

Cited by 148 publications

(54 citation statements)

References 21 publications

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“…A major determinant will be the size and composition of China's vehicle stock. However, projections of the future vehicle stock vary enormously as there are so many relevant supply and demand side variables; the sector will be the subject of both disruptive technological innovation and strong policy intervention over the coming decade and beyond, making forecasting difficult (see Gambhir et al, 2015). China has targeted an expansion of its share of gas in PEC to 10% by 2020 (State Council, 2014), which looks feasible (see Green and Stern 2015, p. 37).…”

Section: Energy Supplymentioning

confidence: 99%

China's changing economy: implications for its carbon dioxide emissions

2016

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As China's government finalises the country's 13th Five Year Plan for economic development (2016)(2017)(2018)(2019)(2020), this article takes stock of recent changes in China's economy and energy system since the turn of the century, and looks ahead to the likely trajectory of Policy Relevance StatementThe article suggests a number of important areas of Chinese policy focus to mitigate risks and challenges that might otherwise prolong the peak date for CO2 emissions. Our analysis and conclusions also have more general implications for Chinese and international climate policy.They suggest that China's international commitment to peak emissions 'around 2030' should be seen as a highly conservative upper limit from a government that prefers to under-promise and over-deliver. They also reinforce the virtue of a 'dynamic' approach to international climate cooperation, as envisaged under the Paris Agreement, whereby countries' targets and policies are regularly updated in light of new information. The importance of macroeconomic analysis for emissions projections climate policy development is also highlighted.

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Section: Energy Supplymentioning

confidence: 99%

China's changing economy: implications for its carbon dioxide emissions

2016

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“…FCV from a number of previous investigations [17]- [19]. The total emission in this study was calculated based on the estimated fuel demand [19], [20] as well as total mileage by the add-on module for exhaust and non-exhaust emissions [21]. Although the total mileage between COPERT outputs and the add-on module remained the same, the fuel demand varied due to changes in vehicle technologies in different scenarios.…”

Section: Methodological Frameworkmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The addon module estimated energy consumption for a wide range of PC categories using fuel efficacy uplift multipliers for alternative PC technologies e.g. FCV from a number of previous investigations [17]- [19]. The total emission in this study was calculated based on the estimated fuel demand [19], [20] as well as total mileage by the add-on module for exhaust and non-exhaust emissions [21].…”

Section: Methodological Frameworkmentioning

confidence: 99%

AN ASSESSMENT OF PM_2.5 REDUCTIONS AS A RESULT OF TRANSPORT FLEET AND FUEL POLICIES ADDRESSING CO₂ EMISSIONS AND CLIMATE CHANGE

Alam¹,

Hyde²,

Duffy³

et al. 2017

WIT Transactions on Ecology and the Environment

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“…The technological details relevant to efficiency improvement and vehicle technologies are considered with various degrees of technology categories, along with the suitability of the county such as infrastructure and economy condition. In this study, the share constraints of mitigation actions in the CMs scenario is designed and analysed in both countries, which considered technologies have been obtained from [5] , [16], [17] and [18]. The average GDP growth rate during 2010-2030 is 4.11% and 5.92% for Thailand and Laos respectively, and during 2031-2050 is 2.70% and 4.30%.…”

Section: Transport Demand Modellingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Scenario-Based Analysis of CO2 Mitigation Potential in the Transport Sector: Comparison between Lao PDR and Thailand

Phoualavanh

Limmeechokchai

2016

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This paper presents an analysis of CO2 mitigation potential in the transport sector between Lao PDR and Thailand. The Long-rang Energy Alternative Planning (LEAP) model was used to forecast transport service demand, energy consumption and CO2 emission of two selected countries during the period from 2010-2050. In this study, a stock vehicle turnover model was developed to assess the potentials of energy saving and CO2 mitigation of policies relevant to the transport sector in Lao PDR and Thailand. For this analysis, three mitigation actions were selected, namely, 1) fuel switching, 2) advanced technology and 3) modal shift to reduce energy consumption and CO2 emissions. Results of analyses show that, in the business as usual (BAU) scenario during 2010 to 2050 for Laos, it can save 9.4% of total energy consumption in 2050 while the cumulative CO2 emissions will be reduced by 15% in 2050. For Thailand, the energy consumption in the transport sector will increase by approximately two folds. However, in CO2 countermeasure scenario, the cumulative energy savings in 2050 will be approximately 5.2% while the cumulative CO2 mitigation in 2050 will be about 14.6% when compared to the BAU scenario.

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Reducing China’s road transport sector CO2 emissions to 2050: Technologies, costs and decomposition analysis

Abstract: 1 This model is based in Microsoft Excel and does not contain any macros or specific visual basic code. *Manuscript Click here to download Manuscript: China transport paper 10th December 2014.docx Click here to view linked References

Cited by 148 publications

References 21 publications

China's changing economy: implications for its carbon dioxide emissions

China's changing economy: implications for its carbon dioxide emissions

AN ASSESSMENT OF PM_2.5 REDUCTIONS AS A RESULT OF TRANSPORT FLEET AND FUEL POLICIES ADDRESSING CO₂ EMISSIONS AND CLIMATE CHANGE

Scenario-Based Analysis of CO2 Mitigation Potential in the Transport Sector: Comparison between Lao PDR and Thailand

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Reducing China’s road transport sector CO2 emissions to 2050: Technologies, costs and decomposition analysis

Abstract: 1 This model is based in Microsoft Excel and does not contain any macros or specific visual basic code. *Manuscript Click here to download Manuscript: China transport paper 10th December 2014.docx Click here to view linked References

Cited by 148 publications

References 21 publications

China's changing economy: implications for its carbon dioxide emissions

China's changing economy: implications for its carbon dioxide emissions

AN ASSESSMENT OF PM2.5 REDUCTIONS AS A RESULT OF TRANSPORT FLEET AND FUEL POLICIES ADDRESSING CO2 EMISSIONS AND CLIMATE CHANGE

Scenario-Based Analysis of CO2 Mitigation Potential in the Transport Sector: Comparison between Lao PDR and Thailand

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Product

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AN ASSESSMENT OF PM_2.5 REDUCTIONS AS A RESULT OF TRANSPORT FLEET AND FUEL POLICIES ADDRESSING CO₂ EMISSIONS AND CLIMATE CHANGE