Redirecionamento na política externa brasileira: uma análise comparativa dos governos Castello Branco (1964-1967) e Fernando Collor (1990-1992)

Sposito, Italo Beltrão

doi:10.11606/d.101.2012.tde-17072013-122933

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“…O ponto (1) apresentado acima está baseado em minha pesquisa de mestrado que auxiliou a identificar variáveis intervenientes e independentes importantes na compreensão dos processos de MPE (SPOSITO, 2012). Os mesmos foram alcançados por meio de process tracing, definido por Beach e Pedersen (2013, p. 2-3) como uma procedimento metodológico para estudar mecanismos causais em estudos de caso.…”

Section: Gráficounclassified

Continuidade e mudança na política externa dos estados latino-americanos (1945-2008)

Sposito¹

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Introduction: This thesis object is the foreign policy restructuring (FPR)conceptualized as the most radical, encompassing, and fast changes in foreign policy. To analyze this phenomenon, there will be sought the main conjuncture conditions that might enhance the chances of this event occurrence. These conditions are related to the Policy Window concept, that represents a period during which the political inertia is disrupted and decision makers have the circumstances to undertake a FPR process. Objective: find and outline the conjectural conditions and variables that increase the chances of occurrence of a FPR. Methods: it will be used qualitative and quantitative methodological tools. In the second chapter, a survival model (Cox Proportional Hazard Model) analyses the effect variables related to the Policy Window concept over the risks of happening a FPR, defined as the most extreme changes of behavior in United Nations General Assembly roll-call votes. In the third chapter, a historical qualitative analysis is undertaken focusing exclusively on the most radical cases of FPR to develop explanatory typologies in order to identify causal conjunctures and common patters that lead to the outcome. Results: we identified that regime and political leader changes, in the national context, and military interventions by foreign powers enhance the risks of FPR occurrence; additionally, high political polarization combined with regime change, political crisis with international forces involvement, processes of international isolation with economic sanctions enforcement, and economic crises with political actors questioning the current economic model might be combined, configuring causal paths to a FPR. Conclusion: despite the importance of main political actors interest in implementing a FPR process, we identified that specific conjunctures and events raise the risks of a positive outcome.

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Section: Gráficounclassified

Continuidade e mudança na política externa dos estados latino-americanos (1945-2008)

Sposito¹

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Redirecionamento na política externa brasileira: uma análise comparativa dos governos Castello Branco (1964-1967) e Fernando Collor (1990-1992)

Cited by 1 publication

References 35 publications

Continuidade e mudança na política externa dos estados latino-americanos (1945-2008)

Continuidade e mudança na política externa dos estados latino-americanos (1945-2008)

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