Recovery and Growth in Transition Economies 1990-97: A Stylized Regression Analysis

Havrylyshyn, Oleh; Rooden, Ron van

doi:10.2139/ssrn.882706

Cited by 20 publications

(12 citation statements)

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“…• The main force behind the initial output decline are adverse initial conditions, particularly trade dependency and initial over-industrialization. However-unlike Wolf (1997) and Havrylyshyn et al (1998)-we find little or no evidence supporting a "J-curve effect" of structural reforms. Structural reforms tend to have offsetting effects on the state and private sectors, particularly at the beginning.…”

Section: Discussioncontrasting

confidence: 82%

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The Evolution of Output in Transition Economies: Explaining the Differences

Sahay

Zettelmeyer²,

Borensztein³

et al. 1999

IMF Working Papers

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What are the relative roles of macroeconomic variables, structural policies, and initial conditions in explaining the time path of output in transition and the large observed differences in output performance across transition economies? Using a sample of 26 countries, this paper follows a general-to-specific modeling approach that allows for differential effects of policies and initial conditions on the private and state sectors and for time-dependent effects of initial conditions. While showing some fragility to model specification, the results point to the preeminence of structural reforms over both initial conditions and macroeconomic variables in explaining cross-country differences in performance and the timing of the recovery.

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Section: Discussioncontrasting

confidence: 82%

“…Three recent papers by de Melo, Denizer, Gelb and Tenev (1997), Wolf (1997) and Havrylyshyn, Izvorski and van Rooden (1998) share our broad objective of studying the effects of relevant policy variables while controlling for the role of initial conditions. 4 None, however, addresses the full range of methodological problems that we consider.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

The Evolution of Output in Transition Economies: Explaining the Differences

Sahay

Zettelmeyer²,

Borensztein³

et al. 1999

IMF Working Papers

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“…Nevertheless, the period is rather short and in many countries, the governor has often only been appointed once or twice under modern central bank: legislation. 24For a discussion of output and inflation effects oftransition economies, see, for instance, Christoffersen and Doyle (1998), Fischer et al (1998), or Havrylyshyn et al (1998. Regarding tax evasion, Hendley et al (1997, page 34), for example, found in a survey of 15 Russian enterprises that barter trade between enterprises had increased from a range of 5 percent to 20 percent in 1992 to a range of 40 percent to 48 percent in 1996.…”

Section: De Facto Central Bank Autonomy and Accountabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Central Bank Autonomy, and Inflation and Output Performance in the Baltic States, Russia, and Other Countries of the Former Soviet Union, 1995-1997

Lybek

1999

IMF Working Papers

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A higher degree of de jure autonomy and accountability of the central banks of the Baltic states, Russia, and other countries of the former Soviet Union appears to be positively correlated with lower average inflation. There also seems to be some positive correlation between greater central bank autonomy and higher average real growth, after the initial period of reforms. Central banks with a higher degree of autonomy and accountability have apparently also reformed their operations more aggressively.

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“…Those countries with better initial conditions and a more aggressive approach towards reforms stabilised their economies faster (IMF, 2014). The cumulative GDP decline during this period was 21% in Slovenia, 35% in Croatia, 18% in the Czech Republic, and 22% in Slovakia (Havrylyshyn, Izvorski, & van Rooden, 1998).…”

Section: Initial Programs Of Stabilisation and Reformmentioning

confidence: 86%

Empirical Testing of Purchasing Power Parity Validity in Selected European Union Countries

Plošinjak

Festić

2021

Naše Gospodarstvo/Our Economy

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In this article, the authors carried out an empirical analysis of the validity of purchasing power parity (PPP) in Slovenia, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Austria. The results provide mixed support for PPP, which is typical for extransition economies. In the first phase of the empirical part of the research, the authors tested the stationarity of the real exchange rate in a logarithm, while in the second phase, the cointegration of nominal exchange rate, domestic and foreign price levels was tested.The Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) was used in the third phase to test if the signs of variables are in accordance with economics and econometrics theories, while in the final phase, restrictions were imposed for the symmetry and proportionality of coefficients. Slovenia is subject to limitations on the symmetry and proportionality of coefficients, which means the validity of both the absolute and relative versions of the PPP theory. Croatia is subject to a limitation on symmetry, but not to a limit on the proportionality of coefficients, which means the validity of the relative version of the PPP theory. In the case of the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Austria, restrictions on the symmetry and proportionality of the coefficients do not apply, which consequently constitutes an invalidity of both versions. However, to the authors’ knowledge, and taking into account Liu (1992), who states that it is more important to check the presence of co-integration than to check the symmetry and proportionality of the coefficients, since there is a cointegratation between the nominal exchange rate, foreign prices and domestic prices, the theory of PPP is valid for all the selected countries. The empirical results suggest that all the real exchange rate time series are stationary, additionally, cointegration exists among all the variables for all countries, and the signs of coefficients are statistically significant for all variables in all countries, however, the coefficient restrictions are only statistically significant in Slovenia and Croatia.

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Recovery and Growth in Transition Economies 1990-97: A Stylized Regression Analysis

Cited by 20 publications

References 0 publications

The Evolution of Output in Transition Economies: Explaining the Differences

The Evolution of Output in Transition Economies: Explaining the Differences

Central Bank Autonomy, and Inflation and Output Performance in the Baltic States, Russia, and Other Countries of the Former Soviet Union, 1995-1997

Empirical Testing of Purchasing Power Parity Validity in Selected European Union Countries

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