Recording of selected effects and hazards caused by current and expected storm events in the Baltic Sea coastal zone

Furmańczyk, Kazimierz; Andrzejewski, Paweł; Benedyczak, Rafał; Bugajny, Natalia; Cieszynski, Lukasz; Dudzińska-Nowak, Joanna; Giza, Andrzej; Paprotny, Dominik; Terefenko, Paweł; Zawiślak, Tomasz

doi:10.2112/si70-057.1

Cited by 14 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 8 publications

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“…Thus, a ''static'' approach gives us comparability with the results of those previous studies, especially since the focus of the paper is on inundation caused by sea level rise and coastal floods. Additionally, there is substantial variation along the Polish coast of erosion and sedimentation rates, and their impact on local morphology is still being investigated (Deng et al 2014;Furmańczyk et al 2014). Furthermore, the aforementioned studies considered (Huizinga 2007) and RWS Rijkswaterstaat (Kok et al 2004) coastal erosion as a much smaller source of losses than inundation of land by sea level rise and, foremost, coastal floods.…”

Section: Uncertaintiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

New estimates of potential impacts of sea level rise and coastal floods in Poland

Paprotny

Terefenko

2016

Nat Hazards

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Polish coastal zone is thought to be one of the most exposed to sea level rise in Europe. With mean sea levels expected to increase between 28 and 98 cm by the end of the century, and storms increasing in severity, accurate estimates of the consequences of those phenomena are needed. Recent advances in quality and availability of spatial data in Poland made possible the reassessment of previous estimates of inundation caused by sea level rise. Up-to-date, detailed information on land use, population and buildings was used here to calculate their exposure to floods at a broad range of scenarios. Inclusion of a highresolution digital elevation model contributed to a further improvement in estimates. The results revealed that even by using a static ''bathtub fill'' approach, the amount of exposed land, population or assets is significantly smaller than indicated in previous assessments. In the perspective of the twenty-first century, direct damages caused by sea level rise will be small and adaptation costs will not be significant. However, the increase in the frequency of storm surges could elevate the risk to the population and economy, but cost-effective flood protection measures would be able to mitigate the risk. The exposure of different kinds of assets and sectors of the economy varies to a large extent, though the structural breakdown of potential losses is remarkably stable between scenarios.

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Section: Uncertaintiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

New estimates of potential impacts of sea level rise and coastal floods in Poland

Paprotny

Terefenko

2016

Nat Hazards

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Section: Uncertaintiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

New estimates of potential impacts of sea level rise and coastal floods in Poland

Paprotny

Terefenko

2015

Preprint

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Abstract. Polish coastal zone is thought to be of the most exposed to sea level rise in Europe. With climate change expected to raise mean sea levels between 26 and 200 cm by the end of the century, and storms increasing in severity, accurate estimates of those phenomena are needed. Recent advances in quality and availability of spatial data in Poland made in possible to revisit previous estimates. Up-to-date detailed information on land use, population and buildings were used to calculate inundation risk at a broad range of scenarios. Inclusion, though imperfect, of flood defences from a high-resolution digital elevation model contributes to a further improvement of estimates. The results revealed that even by using a static "bathtub fill" approach the amount of land, population or assets at risk has been significantly revised down. Sea level rise or storm surges are unlikely to reach intensity required to cause significant damage to the economy or endanger the population. The exposure of different kinds of assets and sectors of the economy varies to a large extent, though the structural breakdown of potential losses is remarkably stable between scenarios.

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“…Soft cliff coasts experience storms strongly, and they can retreat relatively fast. However, most monitoring systems, analyses, and models have been implemented along dune coasts [2][3][4][5][6], largely because of the technical difficulties in registering the morphological changes on cliff coasts. Despite such difficulties, mainly connected with accessibility of high cliffs, the factors influencing cliff erosion have been investigated through quantitative numerical methods.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Monitoring Cliff Erosion with LiDAR Surveys and Bayesian Network-based Data Analysis

et al. 2019

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Cliff coasts are dynamic environments that can retreat very quickly. However, the short-term changes and factors contributing to cliff coast erosion have not received as much attention as dune coasts. In this study, three soft-cliff systems in the southern Baltic Sea were monitored with the use of terrestrial laser scanner technology over a period of almost two years to generate a time series of thirteen topographic surveys. Digital elevation models constructed for those surveys allowed the extraction of several geomorphological indicators describing coastal dynamics. Combined with observational and modeled datasets on hydrological and meteorological conditions, descriptive and statistical analyses were performed to evaluate cliff coast erosion. A new statistical model of short-term cliff erosion was developed by using a non-parametric Bayesian network approach. The results revealed the complexity and diversity of the physical processes influencing both beach and cliff erosion. Wind, waves, sea levels, and precipitation were shown to have different impacts on each part of the coastal profile. At each level, different indicators were useful for describing the conditional dependency between storm conditions and erosion. These results are an important step toward a predictive model of cliff erosion.

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Recording of selected effects and hazards caused by current and expected storm events in the Baltic Sea coastal zone

Cited by 14 publications

References 8 publications

New estimates of potential impacts of sea level rise and coastal floods in Poland

New estimates of potential impacts of sea level rise and coastal floods in Poland

New estimates of potential impacts of sea level rise and coastal floods in Poland

Monitoring Cliff Erosion with LiDAR Surveys and Bayesian Network-based Data Analysis

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