New estimates of potential impacts of sea level rise and coastal floods in Poland

Abstract

Abstract. Polish coastal zone is thought to be of the most exposed to sea level rise in Europe. With climate change expected to raise mean sea levels between 26 and 200 cm by the end of the century, and storms increasing in severity, accurate estimates of those phenomena are needed. Recent advances in quality and availability of spatial data in Poland made in possible to revisit previous estimates. Up-to-date detailed information on land use, population and buildings were used to calculate inundation risk at a broad range of scenarios. Inclusion, though imperfect, of flood defences from a high-resolution digital elevation model contributes to a further improvement of estimates. The results revealed that even by using a static "bathtub fill" approach the amount of land, population or assets at risk has been significantly revised down. Sea level rise or storm surges are unlikely to reach intensity required to cause significant damage to the economy or endanger the population. The exposure of different kinds of assets and sectors of the economy varies to a large extent, though the structural breakdown of potential losses is remarkably stable between scenarios.

Cliff Retreat Induced by Series of Storms at Międzyzdroje (Poland)

“…In recent decades, the highest absolute amplitude of sea level changes in the study area was recorded during year 1984 (2.79 m), whereas the most extreme storm surge occurred in November 1995 (+1.61 m above mean) (Wolski et al, 2013). However, extreme value analysis have shown that a 100year storm surge in the western part of the Polish coast could reach +1.71 m above mean, and a 500-year event would exceed 2 m (Paprotny and Terefenko, 2017). The highest recorded sea level in the timeframe of this study was 1.4 m and corresponds approximately to an event with a return period of 20 years.…”

Flood Risk in a Range of Spatial Perspectives – from Global to Local

“…However, such results have to be interpreted with caution, especially considering changing adaptation and risk reduction capacity. In addition, future flood risk in coastal zones will increase due to the sea level rise (Paprotny and Terefenko, 2017). As projected by Vousdoukas et al (2018), taking into account both the socioeconomic pathways and climate change but in absence of further investments in adaptation, annual damage by coastal flood in Europe will increase from current 1.25 € billion to 93 -961€ billion in the end of 21st century, and current 0.1 million exposed population will reach 1.52 -3.65 million.…”

Flood risk in a range of spatial perspectives – from global to local scales

“…In addition, future flood risk in coastal zones will increase due to the sea level rise (Paprotny and Terefenko, 2017). Taking into account both the socioeconomic pathways and climate change but in absence of further investments in adaptation, Vousdoukas et al (2018) projected the annual damage caused by coastal flooding in Europe to increase from the current EUR 1.25 billion to EUR 93-961 billion by the end of the 21st century, and the exposed population to increase from the current level of 0.1 million to 1.52-3.65 million.…”