Reconstruction of high resolution atmospheric fields for Northern Europe using analog-upscaling

Schenk, Frederik; Zorita, Eduardo

doi:10.5194/cp-8-1681-2012

Cited by 58 publications

(52 citation statements)

References 48 publications

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“…The obviously inconsistent long-term trends relative to observations seem to be related to 20CRv2 assimilating fewer pressure observations back in time, which leads to spurious upward trends in 20CRv2 beforẽ 1940 over the NE-Atlantic (Krueger et al 2013) and before 1910 over the North Sea region (Dangendorf et al 2014 (Gustafsson et al 2012). Based on the pattern similarity between daily SLP station data in the past with SLP observations since 1958, historical atmospheric fields were reconstructed by taking the daily atmospheric fields of regionally downscaled ERA40 reanalysis for any day in the past for which the pattern similarity is maximized for an analogous day in the 1958−2007 period (Schenk & Zorita 2012). As shown in Fig.…”

Section: Wind Climatementioning

confidence: 99%

Observed changes and variability of atmospheric parameters in the Baltic Sea region during the last 200 years

Rutgersson¹,

Jaagus²,

Schenk³

et al. 2014

Clim. Res.

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The Baltic Sea is located in Northern Europe and exhibits significant climate variability, with influence of air masses from arctic to subtropical origin. By updating and discussing results described in the framework of the BACC project (BALTEX Assessment of Climate Change for the Baltic Sea Basin), this study presents observed changes in atmospheric parameters during the last 200 yr. Circulation patterns show large decadal variability with a northward shift of storm tracks and increased cyclonic activity in recent decades with increased persistence of weather types. However, the wind climate shows no robust long-term trends, and is dominated by pronounced (multi-)decadal variability. Near-surface temperatures show continued warming, in particular during spring and winter; this is stronger over northern regions. Up to this point, no long-term trends are detectable for precipitation, although some regional indications exist for an increased length of precipitation periods, and possibly an increased risk of extreme precipitation events.

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Section: Wind Climatementioning

confidence: 99%

Observed changes and variability of atmospheric parameters in the Baltic Sea region during the last 200 years

Rutgersson¹,

Jaagus²,

Schenk³

et al. 2014

Clim. Res.

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“…Taking into account the available reanalysis products, efforts can be taken to at least test the plausibility of state-of-the-art climate models in correctly simulating present-day ocean circulation and related quantities (Pyrina et al, 2017). Given a realistic model simulation of the variable under consideration, CFR methods can be then applied to the pseudo-proxy records in order to estimate a target variable, for instance the global, hemispheric, or regional temperature (Mann and Rutherford, 2002;Mann et al, 2005;Moberg et al, 2008;Schenk and Zorita, 2012). The pseudoreconstruction can then be compared to the simulated target variable.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Pseudo-proxy evaluation of climate field reconstruction methods of North Atlantic climate based on an annually resolved marine proxy network

Pyrina¹,

Wagner²,

Zorita³

2017

Clim. Past

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Abstract. Two statistical methods are tested to reconstruct the interannual variations in past sea surface temperatures (SSTs) of the North Atlantic (NA) Ocean over the past millennium based on annually resolved and absolutely dated marine proxy records of the bivalve mollusk Arctica islandica. The methods are tested in a pseudo-proxy experiment (PPE) setup using state-of-the-art climate models (CMIP5 Earth system models) and reanalysis data from the COBE2 SST data set. The methods were applied in the virtual reality provided by global climate simulations and reanalysis data to reconstruct the past NA SSTs using pseudo-proxy records that mimic the statistical characteristics and network of Arctica islandica. The multivariate linear regression methods evaluated here are principal component regression and canonical correlation analysis. Differences in the skill of the climate field reconstruction (CFR) are assessed according to different calibration periods and different proxy locations within the NA basin. The choice of the climate model used as a surrogate reality in the PPE has a more profound effect on the CFR skill than the calibration period and the statistical reconstruction method. The differences between the two methods are clearer for the MPI-ESM model due to its higher spatial resolution in the NA basin. The pseudo-proxy results of the CCSM4 model are closer to the pseudo-proxy results based on the reanalysis data set COBE2. Conducting PPEs using noise-contaminated pseudo-proxies instead of noisefree pseudo-proxies is important for the evaluation of the methods, as more spatial differences in the reconstruction skill are revealed. Both methods are appropriate for the reconstruction of the temporal evolution of the NA SSTs, even though they lead to a great loss of variance away from the proxy sites. Under reasonable assumptions about the characteristics of the non-climate noise in the proxy records, our results show that the marine network of Arctica islandica can be used to skillfully reconstruct the spatial patterns of SSTs at the eastern NA basin.

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“…Values of DJF SLP reconstructions (rSLP) for the northeastern North Pacific (NNP) over the past ;500 years were derived using an analog method (Schenk and Zorita 2012;Ohlwein and Wahl 2012;Zorita and von Storch 1999), which objectively compares gridded reconstructions of summer soil moisture, as represented by the North American drought atlas (NADA; Cook et al 2007), February-March (FM) surface temperature in temperate western North America (Wahl et al 2014), and water-year (WY; October through the following September) precipitation based on reconstructed streamflow records in western North America as described in Diaz and Wahl (2015) to the same variables in the last-millennium transient-forcing simulation of the Max Planck Institute (MPI) Earth System Model-P (MPI-ESM-P). MPI-ESM-P is one of the participating simulation platforms in phase 5 of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5; Giorgetta et al 2013).…”

Section: A Reconstruction Of Djf Sea Level Pressurementioning

confidence: 99%

A Five-Century Reconstruction of Hawaiian Islands Winter Rainfall

Díaz

Wahl

Zorita³

et al. 2016

Journal of Climate

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Few if any high-resolution (annually resolved) paleoclimate records are available for the Hawaiian Islands prior to ;1850 CE, after which some instrumental records start to become available. This paper shows how atmospheric teleconnection patterns between North America and the northeastern North Pacific (NNP) allow for reconstruction of Hawaiian Islands rainfall using remote proxy information from North America. Based on a newly available precipitation dataset for the state of Hawaii and observed and reconstructed DecemberFebruary (DJF) sea level pressures (SLPs) in the North Pacific Ocean, the authors make use of a strong relationship between winter SLP variability in the northeast Pacific and corresponding DJF Hawaii rainfall variations to reconstruct and evaluate that season's rainfall over the period 1500-2012 CE. A general drying trend, though with substantial decadal and longer-term variability, is evident, particularly during the last ;160 years. Hawaiian Islands rainfall exhibits strong modulation by El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), as well as in relation to Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO)-like variability. For significant periods of time, the reconstructed large-scale changes in the North Pacific SLP field described here and by construction the long-term decline in Hawaiian winter rainfall are broadly consistent with long-term changes in tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) based on ENSO reconstructions documented in several other studies, particularly over the last two centuries. Also noted are some rather large multidecadal fluctuations in rainfall (and hence in NNP SLP) in the eighteenth century of undetermined provenance.

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Reconstruction of high resolution atmospheric fields for Northern Europe using analog-upscaling

Cited by 58 publications

References 48 publications

Observed changes and variability of atmospheric parameters in the Baltic Sea region during the last 200 years

Observed changes and variability of atmospheric parameters in the Baltic Sea region during the last 200 years

Pseudo-proxy evaluation of climate field reconstruction methods of North Atlantic climate based on an annually resolved marine proxy network

A Five-Century Reconstruction of Hawaiian Islands Winter Rainfall

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