Recommendations on the Use of Ecosystem Modeling for Informing Ecosystem‐Based Fisheries Management and Restoration Outcomes in the Gulf of Mexico

Abstract

Ecosystem‐based fisheries management (EBFM) and ecosystem restoration are gaining momentum worldwide, including in U.S. waters of the Gulf of Mexico (GOM). Ecosystem models are valuable tools for informing EBFM and restoration activities. In this paper, we provide guidance and a roadmap for ecosystem modeling in the GOM region, with an emphasis on model development and use of model products to inform EBFM and the increasing investments in restoration. We propose eight “best practices” for ecosystem modeling efforts, including (1) identification of priority management questions, (2) scenarios as simulation experiments, (3) calibration and validation needs, (4) sensitivity and uncertainty analyses, (5) ensuring transparency, (6) improving communication between ecosystem modelers and the various stakeholders, (7) documentation of modeling efforts, and (8) maintaining the ecosystem models and codes. Fisheries management in the USA adheres to a prescriptive set of calculations. Therefore, the use of ecosystem modeling in EBFM for the GOM will likely be incremental, starting with the incorporation of environmental variables into single‐species assessments, the provision of background (stage‐setting) information on environmental and food web effects (e.g., the impacts of lionfish Pterois spp. invasion), and strategic advice through management strategy evaluation. Management questions related to restoration in the GOM (e.g., the impacts of freshwater and sediment diversions as part of coastal restoration, habitat preservation, and rehabilitation; and measures to mitigate nutrient loading and hypoxia) have more flexibility in how they are addressed and thus are primed for immediate use of ecosystem modeling. The questions related to restoration are appropriate for ecosystem modeling, and data collection at the restoration project level can provide critical information for modeling to then scale up to regional responses. Ecosystem modeling efforts need to be initiated and advanced now in order for the tools to be ready in the near future. Addressing resource management issues and questions will benefit greatly from the proper use of ecosystem modeling.

Assisting Ecosystem‐Based Fisheries Management Efforts Using a Comprehensive Survey Database, a Large Environmental Database, and Generalized Additive Models

“…Advancing EBFM requires large efforts and a substantial amount of information (Grüss et al. 2017a). The present study is the result of a large collaborative endeavor, which started with a workshop between modelers, empiricists, and stakeholders in January 2016 (Grüss et al.…”

“…; Grüss et al. 2017a). Ecosystem‐based fisheries management takes into account environmental influences on species dynamics and trophic interactions to formulate fisheries management strategies (Link ; Patrick and Link ).…”

Interspecific Interactions May Influence Reef Fish Management Strategies in the Gulf of Mexico

“…; Grüss et al. , ). The utility of full system models in an ecosystem‐based fisheries management (EBFM) context is to represent an extensive suite of ecosystem processes that can affect target species as well as nontargeted (or less valuable) species (Link ).…”

“…Fisheries managers have the potential to enhance reef fish management in the Gulf of Mexico using strategic, whole‐system, simulation tools that can improve our understanding of complex ecosystem processes (Link ; Grüss et al. ). To date, there are several ecosystem simulators that can be used to address a wide range of conceptual, strategic, and tactical hypotheses (e.g., Walters et al.…”

Modeling the coastal ecosystem complex: present situation and challenges

“…The importance of ecosystem-based management has been widely recognized, in which ecosystem models are expected to play major roles (Grüss et al 2017;Kaplan and Marshall 2016;Lehuta et al 2016). Although we have discussed model development that includes detailed ecological processes suggested from observations, one problem is that this will also increase parameter uncertainty (Collie et al 2016).…”