Recent observed and simulated changes in precipitation over Africa

Maidment, Ross; Allan, Richard P.; Black, Emily

doi:10.1002/2015gl065765

Cited by 212 publications

(205 citation statements)

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“…ARC2, in particular, has negative trends over western EA, and positive trends over the eastern sector. Similar results for TARCAT annual trends from 1983 to 2010 over EA are reported in [17] (see their Figures 1h and 2). Trend analysis results for SDII are similar to those of PRCPTOT (Figure S7a-c).…”

Section: Trend Analysis Of Annual Rainfall Indicessupporting

confidence: 72%

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East Africa Rainfall Trends and Variability 1983–2015 Using Three Long-Term Satellite Products

et al. 2018

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Daily time series from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Africa Rainfall Climatology version 2.0 (ARC2), Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) and Tropical Applications of Meteorology using SATellite (TAMSAT) African Rainfall Climatology And Time series version 2 (TARCAT) high-resolution long-term satellite rainfall products are exploited to study the spatial and temporal variability of East Africa (EA, 5S-20N, 28-52E) rainfall between 1983 and 2015. Time series of selected rainfall indices from the joint CCl/CLIVAR/JCOMM Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices are computed at yearly and seasonal scales. Rainfall climatology and spatial patterns of variability are extracted via the analysis of the total rainfall amount (PRCPTOT), the simple daily intensity (SDII), the number of precipitating days (R1), the number of consecutive dry and wet days (CDD and CWD), and the number of very heavy precipitating days (R20). Our results show that the spatial patterns of such trends depend on the selected rainfall product, as much as on the geographic areas characterized by statistically significant trends for a specific rainfall index. Nevertheless, indications of rainfall trends were extracted especially at the seasonal scale. Increasing trends were identified for the October-November-December PRCPTOT, R1, and SDII indices over eastern EA, with the exception of Kenya. In March-April-May, rainfall is decreasing over a large part of EA, as demonstrated by negative trends of PRCPTOT, R1, CWD, and R20, even if a complete convergence of all satellite products is not achieved.

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Section: Trend Analysis Of Annual Rainfall Indicessupporting

confidence: 72%

“…PRCPTOT anomalies from the satellite products over EA reinforce the insight on rainfall decrease through a series of negative values since 1999. The literature on precipitation in these months is limited: only Maidment et al [17] report weak negative trends without significance over the region.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

East Africa Rainfall Trends and Variability 1983–2015 Using Three Long-Term Satellite Products

et al. 2018

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“…The annual average rainfall in southern Africa (Angola, Namibia, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Zambia, Botswana and South Africa) will decrease by 5-15% in the south and by 5-10% in the north. 37 Increase in the annual rainfall of Southern Africa by 32 to 41 mm yr-1 per decade has been expected by Maidment et al 38 Mean rainfall and rainfall variability is under estimated (or over-estimated) over wet (dry) regions of southern Africa.39 Global Circulation Model (GCM) multimodel predictions indicate a general wetting trend in the north-eastern parts of southern Africa (Tanzania, Malawi). In the far south-west (South Africa, parts of Namibia), conditions may become drier 40 and reduced rainfall for much southern Africa in winter (May-July), but increased annual rainfall in the north-eastern tropical regions linked to increasing summer rainfall.…”

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confidence: 99%

Variability and trends of rainfall, precipitation and discharges over zambezi river basin, southern africa: review

Banze¹,

Guo²,

Shi³

2018

IJH

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Variability and trends of rainfall, precipitation and discharges over zambezi river basin, southern africa: review Submit Manuscript | http://medcraveonline.com IntroductionHuman influence on the climate system is clear, and recent anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases are the highest in history. Their effects, together with those of other anthropogenic drivers, have been detected throughout the climate system and are extremely likely to have been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century. Recent climate changes have had widespread impacts on human and natural systems. Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the 1950s, many of the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia. 1 according to Res & Trenberth,2 there is a direct influence of global warming on precipitation. Increased heating leads to greater evaporation and thus surface drying, thereby increasing the intensity and duration of drought. The African continent has been identified as particularly vulnerable to the changing climate due to its envisaged low adaptive capacity and vulnerability and the southern African region is regarded as one of the most vulnerable regions in Africa.3 This affects the water resource in terms of quality and quantity of water.4 Africa is highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and numerous climate change models predict that the continent's weather patterns will become more variable, and extreme weather events are expected to be more frequent and severe, with increasing risk to health and life. 1,4,5 The droughts and floods will increase in their frequency leading to more water stress. Alterations in agricultural, livestock and fisheries productivity will occur and Africa will face further food insecurity as well as possibly the spread of water-related diseases.According to Swain et al.,6 Zambezi basin is already experiencing drastic changes to its climate. In recent years the annual rainfall in the region decreased considerably and affected the annual flow levels. Over 128 million inhabitants that are part of the Zambezi River Basin are dependent on this river directly or indirectly as a source of food and water. In total the countries along the Zambezi Basin have 2.17 million km 2 of agricultural land, of which just 202,900 km 2 is arable. But as a consequence of increased agricultural land, there is also an increased need for irrigation. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has categorized the Zambezi as the river basin exhibiting the "worst" potential effects of climate change among 11 major African basins. Over the next century, climate change is expected to increase this variability, and the vulnerability of the basin and its hydropower dams. 5 The Zambezi River Basin has one of the most variable climates of any major river basin in the world and the runoff is highly sensitive to variations in climate, as small changes in rainfall pattern produce large changes in runoff. The hydrology of the basin is very important for hydropo...

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“…However, comparison with other gridded rainfall sets from the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC, station-based) and the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP, land and ocean) shows overall very good temporal correlation with some problems over equatorial Congo and Angola (39). In a comparison for all Africa the CRU dataset was found in agreement with satellite-based estimates and to give confidence in its estimation of variability and long-term changes in rainfall (40).…”

Section: Defining Rainfall Clustersmentioning

confidence: 53%

Hydropower plans in eastern and southern Africa increase risk of concurrent climate-related electricity supply disruption

et al. 2017

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Recent observed and simulated changes in precipitation over Africa

Cited by 212 publications

References 85 publications

East Africa Rainfall Trends and Variability 1983–2015 Using Three Long-Term Satellite Products

East Africa Rainfall Trends and Variability 1983–2015 Using Three Long-Term Satellite Products

Variability and trends of rainfall, precipitation and discharges over zambezi river basin, southern africa: review

Hydropower plans in eastern and southern Africa increase risk of concurrent climate-related electricity supply disruption

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