Hydropower plans in eastern and southern Africa increase risk of concurrent climate-related electricity supply disruption

Conway, Declan; Dalin, Carole; Landman, Willem A.; Osborn, Timothy J.

doi:10.1038/s41560-017-0037-4

Cited by 97 publications

(59 citation statements)

References 29 publications

(17 reference statements)

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“…Dam construction alters natural flow regimes (Poff et al, ) and the connectivity of river systems, which can disrupt the movement of organisms and sediment, whereas water storage associated with dam operations regulates river flow, which can alter geomorphic processes and disrupt ecological functions both upstream and downstream (e.g., Grill et al, ; Nilsson et al, ). Hydropower generation is influenced by the year‐to‐year variations in rainfall that increase the risk of climate‐related electricity supply disruption in dry years (Conway et al, ). While thousands of hydropower dams are planned or currently under construction globally (Zarfl et al, ), three large river basins (Amazon, Congo, and Mekong) have particularly large numbers of hydropower dam projects and collectively hold about one third of freshwater fish species (Winemiller et al, ).…”

Section: Water‐energy Nexusmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Global Food‐Energy‐Water Nexus

D’Odorico

Davis

Rosa

et al. 2018

Reviews of Geophysics

533

248

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Water availability is a major factor constraining humanity's ability to meet the future food and energy needs of a growing and increasingly affluent human population. Water plays an important role in the production of energy, including renewable energy sources and the extraction of unconventional fossil fuels that are expected to become important players in future energy security. The emergent competition for water between the food and energy systems is increasingly recognized in the concept of the “food‐energy‐water nexus.” The nexus between food and water is made even more complex by the globalization of agriculture and rapid growth in food trade, which results in a massive virtual transfer of water among regions and plays an important role in the food and water security of some regions. This review explores multiple components of the food‐energy‐water nexus and highlights possible approaches that could be used to meet food and energy security with the limited renewable water resources of the planet. Despite clear tensions inherent in meeting the growing and changing demand for food and energy in the 21st century, the inherent linkages among food, water, and energy systems can offer an opportunity for synergistic strategies aimed at resilient food, water, and energy security, such as the circular economy.

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Section: Water‐energy Nexusmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Global Food‐Energy‐Water Nexus

D’Odorico

Davis

Rosa

et al. 2018

Reviews of Geophysics

533

248

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…It is also highly relevant because of the impacts of climate variability on society. For example, the design and management of energy infrastructure is directly affected by climate variability (e.g., Bloomfield et al, 2016;Conway et al, 2017;Wohland et al, 2018) and climate change (Schlott et al, 2018;Wohland et al, 2017). Incorporating climate variability into transmission system design (e.g., Kempton et al, 2010) and wind park siting (e.g., Grams et al, 2017) facilitates integration of wind energy.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Inconsistent Wind Speed Trends in Current Twentieth Century Reanalyses

et al. 2019

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Reanalysis data underpin much research in atmospheric and related sciences. While most reanalysis only cover the last couple of decades, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (20CR) and European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ERA20C and CERA20C) also developed reanalyses for the entire twentieth century that theoretically allow investigation of multidecadal variability. However, the approaches adopted to handle the massively evolving number of observations can cause spurious signals. Here we focus on wind speeds, as its assimilation is a key difference among these two products. We show that ERA20C and CERA20C feature significant trends in the North Atlantic and North Pacific wind speeds of up to 3 m/s per century. We show that there is a good relation between the trends in the reanalysis and assimilated wind speeds. In contrast, 20CR and the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts free model run ERA20CM do not show positive trends in the same regions. As a consequence, conclusions drawn from any single twentieth century reanalysis should be treated cautiously in particular in sectors with a strong wind dependency (e.g., wind energy).

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“…In turn, it provides a proof-of-concept for the use of nighttime satellite measurements of electric light radiance as a proxy to observe urban power consumption responses to hydrological shocks, underpinning the challenges stemming from a dependency on hydropower. This is a particularly relevant finding given the forecasted intensification of extreme hydrological events in East Africa [40].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 64%

Monitoring hydropower reliability in Malawi with satellite data and machine learning

Falchetta

Kasamba

Parkinson

2020

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Hydro-climatic extremes can affect the reliability of electricity supply, in particular in countries that depend greatly on hydropower or cooling water and have a limited adaptive capacity. Assessments of the vulnerability of the power sector and of the impact of extreme events are thus crucial for decisionmakers, and yet often they are severely constrained by data scarcity. Here, we introduce and validate an energy-climate-water framework linking remotely-sensed data from multiple satellite missions and instruments (TOPEX/POSEIDON. OSTM/Jason, VIIRS, MODIS, TMPA, AMSR-E) and field observations. The platform exploits random forests regression algorithms to mitigate data scarcity and predict river discharge variability when ungauged. The validated predictions are used to assess the impact of hydroclimatic extremes on hydropower reliability and on the final use of electricity in urban areas proxied by nighttime light radiance variation. We apply the framework to the case of Malawi for the periods 2000-2018 and 2012-2018 for hydrology and power, respectively. Our results highlight the significant impact of hydro-climatic variability and dry extremes on both the supply of electricity and its final use. We thus show that a modelling framework based on open-access data from satellites, machine learning algorithms, and regression analysis can mitigate data scarcity and improve the understanding of vulnerabilities. The proposed approach can support long-term infrastructure development monitoring and identify vulnerable populations, in particular under a changing climate.

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Hydropower plans in eastern and southern Africa increase risk of concurrent climate-related electricity supply disruption

Abstract: (2017) Hydropower plans in eastern and southern Africa increase risk of concurrent climaterelated electricity supply disruption. Nature Energy, 2 (12). pp. 946-953. ISSN 2058-7546

Cited by 97 publications

References 29 publications

The Global Food‐Energy‐Water Nexus

The Global Food‐Energy‐Water Nexus

Inconsistent Wind Speed Trends in Current Twentieth Century Reanalyses

Monitoring hydropower reliability in Malawi with satellite data and machine learning

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