Recent increase in the potential threat of western North Pacific tropical cyclones

Abstract

Conventionally, the threat of tropical cyclones (TCs) is often described by TC intensity. However, the damage caused by TCs is also strongly related to our forecasting ability, which is usually low for TCs with high intensification rates. Here, we challenge this intensity-only criterion and propose a concept of TC potential threat (PT) for the western North Pacific TCs by jointly clustering the TC lifetime maximum intensity and intensification rate. We show that TCs can be separated via an objective algorithm, and approximately 10% of all TCs pose a great PT and feature high forecast errors. Furthermore, the annual number of TCs with high PT has increased by 22% per decade over the past 41 years, and this trend is attributed to the rise in subsurface ocean temperatures. Our study provides a perspective on the TC threat and reveals its increase due to global warming and internal climate variability.

On the Duration of Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification

“…A TC may undergo multiple RI processes during its life cycle (Kaplan & DeMaria, 2003), and the number of RI substantially affects the intensity and prediction skill of the TC (Emanuel, 2017;DeMaria et al, 2021;Y. Li, Tang, et al, 2023;X.…”

“…A TC may undergo multiple RI processes during its life cycle (Kaplan & DeMaria, 2003), and the number of RI substantially affects the intensity and prediction skill of the TC (Emanuel, 2017; DeMaria et al., 2021; Y. Li, Tang, et al., 2023; X. Li, Zhan, et al., 2023). However, these multiple RI events might overlap or occur separately, having different influences on the TC development and destructiveness.…”

“…In this study, the environmental factors examined are the mid‐level relative humidity (RH), vertical wind shear (VWS), sea surface temperature (SST), and maximum potential intensity (MPI) (Emanuel, 1986; Gilford, 2021; Y. P. Guo & Tan, 2018; Kaplan et al., 2015). In addition, tropical cyclone heat potential (TCHP) is used to characterize the ocean heat content and to study the effect of the oceans on RI (Y. Li, Tang, et al., 2023; X. Li, Zhan, et al., 2023). We also compare the inner processes between interrupted and terminated moments by analyzing the intensity and vortex size metrics, including V max , TC fullness (TCF) and the radius of maximum wind (RMW), which reflect the structure of the vortex, and influence the development of TC (Emanuel, 2000; Kaplan et al., 2010; Kossin et al., 2013).…”

“…In addition, tropical cyclone heat potential (TCHP) is used to characterize the ocean heat content and to study the effect of the oceans on RI (Y. Li, Tang, et al, 2023;X. Li, Zhan, et al, 2023).…”