On the Duration of Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification

Abstract

Rapid intensification (RI) of tropical cyclones (TCs) not only plays a crucial role in the development of major TCs but also poses great challenges to operational forecasting. Previous studies predominantly focused on RI over 24‐hr periods, overlooking the potential for extended durations with intermittent moments. Here, we investigate the actual duration of RI and show that, when considering the interruption and intermittent moments, the longest RI can persist for up to 90 hr. Declines and resurgences in maximum potential intensity (MPI) and tropical cyclone heat potential (TCHP) are associated with the interruption of RI process. Given that the error in TC track prediction is much lower compared with that in intensity prediction, such a local minimum in MPI and TCHP could be better forecasted and potentially assist the prediction of RI, ultimately reducing TC‐related hazards.