Recent changes in the summer precipitation pattern in East China and the background circulation

Zhu, Yali; Wang, Huijun; Zhou, Wen; Ma, Jiehua

doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0852-9

Cited by 368 publications

(262 citation statements)

References 42 publications

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“…21.2). This is consistent with Zhu et al (2011) who found that SST explained a large part of the weakening of the East Asian summer monsoon. AA and GHG changes cause an increase in precipitation (in HadGEM3-A) in northeast Asia (Fig.…”

Section: S107supporting

confidence: 93%

“…This is typically located over the south coast in May, propagates north to reach the Yangtze basin by June and northern China by July, and retreats in August with the end of the East Asian monsoon (e.g., Chang et al 2000). Drought occurs in northern China when the southerly flow over east China is weak, and the propagation of the Mei-Yu front stagnates in the Yangtze River valley (e.g., Zhu et al 2011).…”

Section: S105mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The main factor controlling this decadal variability in precipitation is thought to be the southerly water vapor transport associated with the monsoon (e.g., Zhao et al 2010;Tan et al 2014). However, drought has also been attributed more widely to other factors, such as the positive phase of the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO; e.g., Zhu et al 2011), warming tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans (e.g., Zhao et al 2010), anthropogenic aerosols (Xu 2001;Menon et al 2002) Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies for 2014 relative to 1964-93 (Fig. 21.1f), and to 1997 to 2014 (Supplemental Fig.…”

Section: S105mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A tongue of cool SSTs extends from the south of Japan into the central North Pacific. Such anomalies are characteristic of the warm phase of the PDO, which has previously been associated with drought in northern China (e.g., Zhu et al 2011 | 5 (CMIP5) subset listed in Table 21.1 were compared for scenarios with all forcings, greenhouse gas (GHG) changes only, and anthropogenic aerosol (AA) changes only. The all-forcing simulations indicate a positive trend in multimodel mean JJA near-surface temperature in northeast Asia, in good agreement with HadCRUT4.…”

Section: S105mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This was not an isolated event, occurring in the context of two decades of dry summers. The spatial pattern of precipitation in these years is for there to be flooding in southern China and drought in the north, linked to a stagnation of the northward propagation of the Mei-Yu front (e.g., Zhu et al 2011). Analysis of an ensemble of CMIP5 models suggests that it is likely that greenhouse gas emissions have caused increased summer temperatures in northeast Asia, partially offset by increasing anthropogenic aerosols.…”

Section: S108mentioning

confidence: 99%

See 4 more Smart Citations

The 2014 Hot, Dry Summer in Northeast Asia

Wilcox

Dong

Sutton

et al. 2015

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

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Section: S107supporting

confidence: 93%

Section: S105mentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: S105mentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: S105mentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: S108mentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

The 2014 Hot, Dry Summer in Northeast Asia

Wilcox

Dong

Sutton

et al. 2015

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

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Modulation of PDO on the predictability of the interannual variability of early summer rainfall over south China

Duan

Song

et al. 2013

JGR Atmospheres

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[1] This study investigates the modulation of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) on the predictability of interannual early summer south China rainfall (SCR) using high-quality station rainfall data. Of particular interest is the difference in impact between negative and positive phases of the PDO on the predictability of interannual early summer SCR. A clear difference in the correlation between the interannual early summer SCR and the preceding sea surface temperature (SST) over the Pacific Ocean appears in negative and positive phases of the PDO. In the negative PDO phase, the correlation between interannual early summer SCR and SST is dominated by a pattern with significant negative correlations in the subtropical western North Pacific and southeast Pacific and significant positive correlations in the tropical central Pacific. However, in the positive PDO phase, significant positive correlations are observed in the tropical eastern Pacific. It is found that, for each PDO phase, the preceding SST anomalies in some regions in the Pacific may act as predictors of the interannual early summer SCR. As such, a two-regime regression model for the relationship between interannual early summer SCR and preceding SST anomalies is established based on the negative and positive PDO phases using respective multiple linear regression models. Results suggest that the interannual early SCR is more predictable in PDO positive phase than in negative phase. It offers a support for the argument that a segmented statistical forecasting approach associated with the decadal modulation effect of the coupled ocean atmospheric mode should be adopted to forecast the early summer SCR.

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Changes in the frequencies of record‐breaking temperature events in China and its association with East Asian Winter Monsoon variability

et al. 2014

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The daily maximum and minimum temperatures observed at the 1897 meteorological stations of China over the past 60 years are analyzed in this study to examine the interdecadal variation of frequency for record-breaking event (RBE) of temperature in the context of global warming. The results indicate that the frequency of record-breaking high temperature in the first decade of the 21st century is the highest in the three decades from the 1980s to the 2000s, implying a distinct warming trend. Meanwhile, frequencies of record-breaking low temperature in the 1990s and the beginning of the 21st century are also significant. In particular, the RBEs of low temperature occurred over most of China in the 1990s but concentrated in northern China during the 2000s. To understand why the record low temperatures in northern China are repeatedly broken in the 2000s, the related East Asian Winter Monsoon (EAWM) variability is investigated. The empirical orthogonal function analysis of surface air temperature reveals that the northern mode of the EAWM variability, which is highly associated with the Arctic Oscillation (AO) activities at both interdecadal and interannual timescales, has been intensifying since late 1990s. Corresponding to the intensification of the northern mode of the EAWM variability and the negative phase of AO in the 2000s, the Siberian High and East Asian trough intensify while the polar-front jet stream strengthens and the subtropical westerly jet stream abnormally shifts northward. As a result, anomalously strong cold air masses, originated from Siberia, intrude into East Asia but are blocked by the enhanced northward subtropical westerly jet and cannot reach low-latitude area. Therefore, the extremely strong cold air masses are amassed in mid-high latitudes of East Asia, resulting in RBEs of low temperature in this area.

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Recent changes in the summer precipitation pattern in East China and the background circulation

Cited by 368 publications

References 42 publications

The 2014 Hot, Dry Summer in Northeast Asia

The 2014 Hot, Dry Summer in Northeast Asia

Modulation of PDO on the predictability of the interannual variability of early summer rainfall over south China

Changes in the frequencies of record‐breaking temperature events in China and its association with East Asian Winter Monsoon variability

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